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Thread: Are snipers and recon still valid in infantry battalions?

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    There is some compelling sets of data that show, except in open desert, average rates of advance since 1918 are < 2km per hour, and often substantially less. 30km per day is considered good.
    Average and median are really of little interest.

    A WW2 armoured corps with 40 km/h tanks* advanced 400 km in quite exactly four days- against the opposition of several conventional divisions in suboptimal tank terrain (Manstein's Corps to Vilnius).


    Advance through defence is of little interest today in general. There are enough gaps for advance, and no continuous line of defence. You don't need to advance through deep defensive positions in most conventional warfare scenarios.
    You can - if you prepare well for it - rather go back to an extremely accelerated version of Central European 18th century army maneuvers (Wars of Silesia as examples).
    Speed of advanced in defended terrain was irrelevant then and it is (almost) today.



    *: (that needed maintenance every hour of driving in order to prevent excessive breakdowns)

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    Average and median are really of little interest.

    A WW2 armoured corps with 40 km/h tanks* advanced 400 km in quite exactly four days- against the opposition of several conventional divisions in suboptimal tank terrain (Manstein's Corps to Vilnius)
    So that figure is a sound basis for discussion, based on the fact it happened once?
    Advance through defence is of little interest today in general. There are enough gaps for advance, and no continuous line of defence. You don't need to advance through deep defensive positions in most conventional warfare scenarios.
    On what do you base that assertion. You are stating a fact?
    How do you know where the enemy defence is? Finding the defence is the problem we are discussing.
    You can - if you prepare well for it - rather go back to an extremely accelerated version of Central European 18th century army maneuvers (Wars of Silesia as examples).
    Speed of advanced in defended terrain was irrelevant then and it is (almost) today.
    So how do we do this? What do you suggest as useful data sets around which to base a discussion?
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    So that figure is a sound basis for discussion, based on the fact it happened once?

    It shows the possible. Much more should be possible today. Maybe 400 km in three days. I'd certainly not call a 350 km "dash" in two weeks against marginal and demoralized opposition "fast" or "lightning fast" nowadays.

    The Armor Journal (Magazine?) had an article on historic advance speeds in a late 90's issue and found relatively modest differences between horse and mech advance speeds, though (yet we know how fast horse would advance against defences today).

    On what do you base that assertion. You are stating a fact?
    I consider recce and combat team movements two different things. It makes no sense to speak of advance speeds if we're talking about recce. Speed of advance always means the arrival of the main force (or at most its powerful spearhead) afaik.

    How do you know where the enemy defence is? Finding the defence is the problem we are discussing.

    Recce and non-main force combat elements do the "finding", and their movements shouldn't be measured like the main body's movements.
    Recce is about smaller unit movements (squad to reinforced battalion), and we know that the smaller units of the main body move many times (IIRC x2, x5 or even more) faster than the "advance speed" (moving back, sideways etc).

    It is a widely acknowledged opinion that there's little reason to expect continuous front lines in modern conventional war. Lebanon (a hilly terrain that doesn't suggest high speed advances anyway),a hypothetical continental front between Greece and Turkey and some other examples like an opposed amphibious landing on Taiwan's shores are the few examples that still promise continuous fronts.

    There's no need and not enough force density to maintain continuous, defensible fronts in other scenarios, though.
    *Opinion* I do expect lines or rather clouds of screening forces with very low force density in most places as a substitute for the classic WWI-Korean War infantry division front line.


    So how do we do this?
    I'm working on that answer - it's exactly my area of research. Few parts of it are (anywhere near) ready to be published.


    What do you suggest as useful data sets around which to base a discussion?
    The answer is basically
    We should exploit this great time of no pressing conventional threats for experiments!
    Large-scale experiments can clarify much about the organisational, technical, mental and logistical challenges.

    Instead, we're discussing how to succeed against tribal warband warfare.
    Those warbands won't overrun any of our today's formal allies, ever. <- more than just opinion. This was a prediction.

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    We should exploit this great time of no pressing conventional threats for experiments!
    Large-scale experiments can clarify much about the organisational, technical, mental and logistical challenges.
    You may want to look at the Biddle's Military Power - it has extremely good data on modern rates of advance.

    Personally I use the following figures, based on the historical data I have to hand.
    March = 40 km/h (convoy) - with obvious road, route and configuration modifications.
    Advance to contact = 2-3 km/h - with obvious terrain modifications.

    Point being, you do have to come up figures in talk about t he organisational, technical, mental and logistical challenges. - so means and averages do have place.

    Instead, we're discussing how to succeed against tribal warband warfare.
    Those warbands won't overrun any of our today's formal allies, ever. <- more than just opinion. This was a prediction.
    Small Wars? Hmmm... go figure, but as a British Captain writing in 1905 warned loosing battles against "savages" could not loose them the Empire. Loosing a war with a European power could them the Empire and the Country.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Personally I use the following figures, based on the historical data I have to hand.
    March = 40 km/h (convoy) - with obvious road, route and configuration modifications.
    Advance to contact = 2-3 km/h - with obvious terrain modifications.

    Point being, you do have to come up figures in talk about t he organisational, technical, mental and logistical challenges. - so means and averages do have place.
    I do partially disagree.

    Historical info is valuable in pointing out the impossible under certain conditions and it's a rich source, but it's not very useful if you want to develop something new, different. History is poor at prediction.
    The old data doesn't apply then - and you can simply use the status quo knowledge for the non-innovative parts of your idea.

    Variable values are important, averages and medians not so much.


    Average advance speeds are especially uninteresting to me because I separate the recce and main combat elements.


    The speed of modern, unopposed units is so high that the movement speed isn't really of interest anymore anyway. It's quick. So quick that it becomes quite uninteresting in comparison to the other variables. Look at a Bde; it could easily cross its area of operation in less than an hour if we look at its average march speed.

    I'm much more interested in very different time info:
    - time for maintenance (h/100 km, h/day)
    - time between Bde issuing warning order and reinforced Bn on the march
    - time a reinforced Bn needs to deploy from marching column to battle formations
    - time needed for a reinforced Bn to disengage (break contact), move 30-50 km and re-engage in battle formation

    Simple movement is 'lightning' quick - the average speed is therefore uninteresting, it's not the bottleneck. The other processes that cannot be expressed in km/h are the bottlenecks.

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    Historical info is valuable in pointing out the impossible under certain conditions and it's a rich source, but it's not very useful if you want to develop something new, different. History is poor at prediction.
    The old data doesn't apply then - and you can simply use the status quo knowledge for the non-innovative parts of your idea.
    So does experimentation or recent experience suggest?
    Average advance speeds are especially uninteresting to me because I separate the recce and main combat elements.
    Why? How is Recce going to work moving at anything much over 2-3 kph - unless they want to blunder into an ambush. As the Soviets found out, you can't locate the enemy by the location from the burning wrecks of your CRP or Advanced Guard.
    The speed of modern, unopposed units is so high that the movement speed isn't really of interest anymore anyway. It's quick. So quick that it becomes quite uninteresting in comparison to the other variables. Look at a Bde; it could easily cross its area of operation in less than an hour if we look at its average march speed.
    What type of Brigade and what size of area? Number of routes. Recce and securing of Assembly areas? Route proving?
    Have convoy speeds improved since the 1970's - 40 kph?
    I'm much more interested in very different time info:
    - time for maintenance (h/100 km, h/day)
    - time between Bde issuing warning order and reinforced Bn on the march
    - time a reinforced Bn needs to deploy from marching column to battle formations
    - time needed for a reinforced Bn to disengage (break contact), move 30-50 km and re-engage in battle formation
    How on earth could you come up with those numbers? - and BTW, planing cycles today are 4 times what they were in 1944.
    Simple movement is 'lightning' quick - the average speed is therefore uninteresting, it's not the bottleneck. The other processes that cannot be expressed in km/h are the bottlenecks.
    OK, that's why you have staffs. Staffs today are -based on evidence - less effective than they were in WW2.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Why? How is Recce going to work moving at anything much over 2-3 kph - unless they want to blunder into an ambush. As the Soviets found out, you can't locate the enemy by the location from the burning wrecks of your CRP or Advanced Guard.

    It's in part a function of risk and different speed/tempo for different unit sizes.
    1) You're able to advance with small elements if there's no continuous defended front line (enabling the use of a combat-capable recon screen or cloud as a substitute for WW infantry division lines).
    2) Small elements are quicker in all regards than large ones (making large element stats irrelevant).
    3) Losing small elements (or part thereof) is less a disaster than doing so with large elements. Both offer the same benefit (gaining access to territory and info) by advancing, so it follows that small elements can be ordered to advance quickly more than large ones. (no assumption of a zero casualty policy) at the same risk expectancy value.

    Even if small units did not advance quicker - who cares? Many small ones advancing at 3 km/h gain way more ground and info than few large ones doing so. There's also no need to accept major battles quickly, and even 3 km/h cover a very long distance in a mere week (500 km)! Many small elements advancing at 3km/h get far behind enemy main forces in a single day.
    Movement speed is no bottleneck and therefore of marginal interest (today).



    What type of Brigade and what size of area? Number of routes. Recce and securing of Assembly areas? Route proving?

    I'll have that nailed down in one to three years (in article or book form), it's work in progress. It's already for sure that the end result will be very different from orthodox concepts.
    The concept brigades will be less unorthodox than everything else, though.

    A hint: I won't assign an area or zone or phase lines or anything similar to main combat forces (combined arms brigades or similar).
    The combat-capable recce by company-sized elements would own the land much like many boxers shape the fight with the quick jab(Coy+) and seek the major blows with the powerful cross (Bn+, Bde).


    Have convoy speeds improved since the 1970's - 40 kph?

    I don't care. Operational relocation movement of a Bde wouldn't last for longer than two or three hours anyway - often less than its preparation. There are usually enough streets for use, so that bottleneck is likely gone as well (traffic capability is proportional to average vehicle length, spacing, speed - and available roads*used lanes).
    Besides, convoy speed is a function of employed tactic & terrain.


    How on earth could you come up with those numbers? - and BTW, planing cycles today are 4 times what they were in 1944.

    It's actually less about coming up with those numbers today. I'd rather let the units exercise for weeks in the field and push them for becoming ever quicker, removing obstacles in the process.
    In the end tactics and operational concept would need to be adjusted/limited (impossible or too risky moves being cut out).

    The present problem is that such figures vary a lot between units (and over time) as well as between countries. An minimum, average, median and maximum would only become useful if the room for improvement was already mostly exploited (because that would need to happen in wartime).

    I don't pay much attention to today's planning cycles. I work on major conventional war theory. A major conventional war would be certainly crack down on a lot of poor habits that we developed. Units would lose officers and staffs officers would be sent as replacements, staffs would overall become much leaner in size and procedures.

    Manstein wrote in a book about the huge difference between staff work in combat ops and in resting phases; the paperwork and slow stuff was done in the latter. He lead an army group (dozens of divisions) from a few railway cars.


    OK, that's why you have staffs. Staffs today are -based on evidence - less effective than they were in WW2.
    And that will change once change is necessary for survival. Major warfare is an evolutionary shock for military organizations. They change a lot.
    We couldn't even triple our brigade count without a switch to much leaner Bde HQs, for example.

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