Bill

I agree, "true change" is extremely hard. I suspect 'the World' expected a substantive change to our approach in Afghanistan following the election of President Obama, and that indeed would have been the perfect opportunity.

Problem was that he had been mislead by the "experts" as to both the nature of the threat, the risk to our nation, and the viability of various cures. He also had been roundly abused by the Republicans as weak on foreign policy, so he had little choice but to jump into Afghanistan with both feet. Thus "Obama's War." We changed the tone of our approach a bit, increased the resources, but essentially left the framework unchanged, opting for "harder, faster," over "smarter."

The "experts" are just as loud today, though the metrics coming back from the surge efforts are making them nervous. The "Biden Plan" is beginning to take on new life. If I was gambling man, and asked what the most likely friendly COA currently is, my money would be on "Create a 'decent interval' with the surge, then shift to the Biden Plan and withdraw."

If I were asked if I thought that was a viable plan, I would have to say "No." It may well save our bacon, but it only delays a likely replay that could look a lot like the final days of South Vietnam, or more accurately, the final days of Afghan communists following the Soviet withdrawal.

There is no need to run out on our friends to make true change, in fact, we actually put our friends in a much better spot by making true change now, rather than by forcing them to stay on the current ride to its inevitable finale.

The Northern Alliance and the minority populaces they represent will be far better served by a negotiated settlement with the Taliban and the Pashtuns that leads to a new constitution and more balanced and equitable governance than the current model, than they are by leaving them to their own devices and years of violence. The violence will likely increase and potentially end in the Northern Alliance fleeing for their lives. The US and our influence and reputation is far better served by designing and overseeing the former rather than the latter as well.

BL, is we have options.