Quote Originally Posted by Mark O'Neill View Post
Steve,

I think that you are right about the need to maintain recruits and fighters at the tactical and operational level in order to have some success.

Arguably the South Africans were pretty good at this and, through turned guerillas in various operational theatres (working for both Koevet and various recces) and bribery (such as the black politicians they got to run the so -called 'Bantustans') could have 'played on' for a lot longer than they eventually did. The point I am suggesting is that maintenance of the 'fight' and 'order' ultimately do little to address issues of rectitude and (that ill defined and contested term) legitimacy. They get so aroused by their operational succes at turning belligerants (which I guess is what you are saying) that they forget about why folks are fighting them in the first place. This is often reflected in their IO.

The RSA, demonstrably, did very well at the maintenance of the fight, but ultimately never addressed the other. This is what eventually unhinged them strategically. There is a remains a large difference between turning warriors in the fight , and convincing the wider public who may be against you. The CDF of the SADF recognised this when he advised his generals that they were not fighting for 'total victory' but for sufficient time for the politicians to 'wake up' to the fact that apartheid was never going to be acceptable and negotiate an appropriate compromise.

I suspect, from my very limited knowledge, that the same might apply in Iraq. Carter's point about the Sunni does seem to offer an operational boost. But, and he concedes this, it does not resolve the strategic end. As has been pointed out, it might even further complicate things in the long run.

Concluding, I think you are right, if the time bought is used to undertake the necessary reforms. Historical example suggests that the hubris of operational success takes over and that this falls by the by.... illogically, the operational success actually convinces them that they can win by mainitaining the same strategic path

Regards,
Mark
The South African case also illustrates what is, I think, an important strategic element of insurgencies: they often start with both sides seeking decisive victory, i.e. the annihilation of the other. But as they drag on, they become "ripe for resolution" when both sides are willing to accept less than total victory. An argument could be made that the white South Africans were strategically successful in that they ended up with a better deal than they might have.

That leads me to wonder whether Iraq is ripe for resolution now--whether the Sunni Arabs and the Shiites are willing to accept less than total victory. I find the leadership of the Sunni Arabs repulsive and am badly bothered by the idea that a group might interject itself into a democratic government but force, but Iraqis may be at the point where they have to decide whether they 'd rather be right or safe. Life is often sad, forcing people to made very difficult choices.