Neo Challenges the Matrix

[Ken White]

Sometimes you write things to make explicit points; other times you write things more to ask questions that need to be asked or to challenge certain ways of thinking. I think Macgregor in this piece is trying to do the latter two things rather than offering up specific solutions to problems or as you ask make a specific point. In this regard I thought his article was of value because it does view differently the current narrative that explains the lowering of violence in Iraq and suggests that what many think is the road to success may be the road to disaster.

gentile

which I did the second time, it makes some sense. Unduly pessimistic I thought, though...

As you know, I share your concern that we'll overdo the COIN bit and I thought and think the so-called surge is of marginal overall value (on a cost benefit basis) so I can agree with him on those points. Further, I certainly don't have any problem rattling anybody's cage and believe that needs to be done on a regular basis, sometimes violent shaking is in order. He generally does that well and I applaud him for it.

I guess my problem with the article is three fold. First is that, IMO, the idea of success in Iraq as originally defined by the idiot sector of the Admin was never going to happen therefor I didn't expect it so am not disappointed. 'Win' is, as I've often said, a bad word to use in application to any COIN operation, thus we were looking at an acceptable solution, no more. I also thought and think a major Sunni - Shia confrontation is inevitable; the question is when. The ME, unlike us, is long on patience and as Macgregor notes and as you and I both know, duplicity (and haggling) are the national pastimes...

Unlike Macgregor (or unlike that article...), I think that it is probable we will achieve an acceptable solution and that the confrontation will be delayed for a variety of reasons. I also suspect we will be there at about 40K for quite some time -- but then, I've always been an optimist...

The second problem is, of course, the 'occupy' set me off as I don't believe we ever tried to do that and know that he knows better -- but that, admittedly, is only mildly disingenuous or semantic and little more.

Finally, I believe that just as dangerous as overdoing the COIN thing is, I think, getting over protective of the institution and I sense he sometimes does that. Could be wrong, have been many times and I hope I am in that sensing.

[tequila]

For competent chess players they havent done a very good job of keeping their "figurehead" Achmedinajad from opening his mouth and inserting his foot continually. Especially when you consider the position Khomeni finds himself in regarding internal affairs.

I agree about this one. The Iranians are far less unified than they are portrayed. Their system has enormous internal tensions that occasionally peek through to the surface and many highly competitive interest groups. The Iranians certainly have a better grasp of the Iraqi snake pit than we do, especially in the Shi'ite side, but a snake pit is still a snake pit even for the most experienced handlers.

[Gian P Gentile]

...Finally, I believe that just as dangerous as overdoing the COIN thing is, I think, getting over protective of the institution and I sense he sometimes does that. Could be wrong, have been many times and I hope I am in that sensing.

Ken:

thanks for your thoughtful response. I agree that as you have said before the pendulum can swing back too far in the other direction too and we certainly dont want that. Actually I think Macgregor over the years has been trying to obliterate the institution then rebuild it in a way the provides better strategic flexibility. His two classics "Breaking the Phalanx," and "Transformation Under Fire," attest to that position.

I most appreciate Ken your humility and the proposition that you "could be wrong." That has always been the mantra that I lived by; that I might be wrong, that my next screw up is just hanging around the corner but if i work really hard, stay true to my values, and rely on my buddies on my right and left i might get through it. The overall value of Macgregor's piece is that it does poke a finger in the eye of those who are cocksure about things with their positive knowledge about the way ahead in Iraq and what the future holds. Even if he is read as an extreme, the extreme holds value if it reasonably challenges conventional wisdom, which i think this piece does.

no worries

gian

[Ken White]

Ken:

thanks for your thoughtful response. I agree that as you have said before the pendulum can swing back too far in the other direction too and we certainly dont want that. Actually I think Macgregor over the years has been trying to obliterate the institution then rebuild it in a way the provides better strategic flexibility. His two classics "Breaking the Phalanx," and "Transformation Under Fire," attest to that position.

True. "Breaking the Phalanx" was important (have not read the other) and I've long admired Macgregor for that and for most of his articles. That book was needed and it did much good. I'd actually go further than he would in putting the army (all of DoD...) in a big bag and shaking it thoroughly -- but SGMs have little credibility and a long retired one has even less...

I most appreciate Ken your humility and the proposition that you "could be wrong." That has always been the mantra that I lived by; that I might be wrong, that my next screw up is just hanging around the corner but if i work really hard, stay true to my values, and rely on my buddies on my right and left i might get through it. The overall value of Macgregor's piece is that it does poke a finger in the eye of those who are cocksure about things with their positive knowledge about the way ahead in Iraq and what the future holds. Even if he is read as an extreme, the extreme holds value if it reasonably challenges conventional wisdom, which i think this piece does.

Amen to all that. Though I do know a lot of people who'd snicker at the humble bit applied to me.

Didn't think the article was extreme, on the contrary, thought it was quite measured -- just on the pessimistic side but acknowledge that may have been done for emphasis. Anything that makes people think and challenges the conventional wisdom is a plus IMO so it may have just been my perverse nature -- when every one else is wet and miserable, I splash about laughing, yet if everyone is content, i've been accused of being able to cast gloom on a MOH ceremony. Not my most endearing trait...

no worries

gian

Keep up the fire...