Iranian Rev Guard and Lebanese Hezbollah advisers have been committed to both the fight in Baiji in Salahaddin and Ramadi op in Anbar. In Salahaddin Iranians were operating heavy equipment like artillery mortars rockets flying drones etc. They also fight alongside the Hashd leading to another Iranian being killed in Anbar. Is the 8th officially reported so far. Read the entire article here.
I just published my 81st interview. I talked with Ahmed Ali of EPIC and formerly the Institute for the Study of War about the political implications of the current war against IS. We talked about the fallout from the fall of Ramadi for both Premier Abadi and Pres. Obama, the role of the Hashd al-Shaabi in the fighting on other issues. Read the interview here.
Just published weekly security report for Jun 1-7 in Iraq. Govt forces were pushing offensives in Anbar and Salahaddin to recapture territory it lost in previous months. Also reporting on violence in Iraq went back up after a two week dip when everyone was focused upon the fall of Ramadi. For the complete report here's a link.
Will more advisers / trainers make a difference?
I noted that President Obama has announced 450 additional advisers for Iraq, on the BBC:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33083359 and a bleak commentary by the BBC's Security Correspondent:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32846852
Far more interesting are the contrasting views by two Australians, via the Lowy Institute. Ret'd General Molan, with Iraqi experience, who ends with:Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...o-battle.aspx?We must act now to avoid a slow road to a noisy defeat. The question our leaders need to address is whether we are merely participating in this war or are committed to it. If we are committed, we must take responsibility for the outcome rather than just conducting training. As one of the many great soldiers of the Vietnam era reminded me, the Vietnamese used to say: 'Either protect us and be with us, or leave us alone'.
Then Rodger Shanahan, a regional SME; starting with:Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...-in-Iraq.aspx?Stumping up Australian soldiers to risk their lives when the Iraqi political system refuses to reform or look beyond narrow self-interest simply tells the Iraqis that they can continue to ignore fundamental issues of political legitimacy without penalty.
(He ends with) Little is straightforward in the region these days, and the last thing we should be doing is involving our soldiers in ground combat in Iraq.
I was rather taken with Rodger asking why are local allies, citing UAE & Jordan (both Sunni) not providing trainers - who at a minimum IMHO can at least speak Arabic, are local and Muslims?
davidbfpo
Critique of Obama admin's new announcement of sending another 450 trainers to Iraq. 1st none of the Iraqi forces trained so far have been deployed when there are desperate need for them. 2nd Baghdad is not providing enough soldiers to be trained, and not arming and equipping them. Obama said that the US training program has more capacity then trainees so why take this move? White House may be motivated to be seen doing something after all the criticism after Ramadi that does not involve an escalation of its involvement. Read more here.
Just published an interview with Emma Sky. We discussed her time in Iraq working for the CPA, during the Surge and afterward during the withdrawal. Also tried to evaluate how the U.S. did intervening in and trying to rebuild Iraq. Here's a link.
Joel,Originally Posted by JWing
Congratulations on the interview, Emma Sky for you gave far clearer answers than she did when I listened to her. I have copied your post to the Emma Sky thread.
davidbfpo
Thanks David. Glad you enjoyed it.
Just published my weekly security report for the 2nd wk of June in Iraq. IS launched 67 car bombs during the week. Most were destroyed before reaching their target was huge escalation over the 24 the week before. Heaving fighting continued in Anbar where govt forces continue to struggle to control Garma and in Salahaddin over Baiji and the refinery there. Read the whole report here.
I just published my 83rd interview. I talked with Sajad Jiyad of the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform about the situation Iraq's Premier Haider Abadi finds himself in. He took power in the worst situation with IS holding large swaths of the country, a dispute with the Kurds, having to deal with the legacy of PM Maliki, the Hashd superseding the ISF, and whether he can bring about reconciliation in a deeply divided country. Read the interview here.
Why the Islamic State Is Weathering the Air Campaign
A very short comment by Pete Mansoor via the newly discovered Hoover Institution 'Military History in the News' and he concludes:Link:http://www.hoover.org/research/why-i...air-campaign-0..without an adequate partner on the ground in either Iraq or Syria, U.S. airpower has proven ineffective in degrading—much less defeating—the forces of the Islamic State. Absent a change in the ways and means of the strategy to defeat it, ISIS is likely to weather the aerial storm arrayed against it for the foreseeable future.
davidbfpo
Just published an article on the ghost towns in Iraq. Several towns in Ninewa, Salahddin, Diyala and Babil have been cleared by govt forces and emptied of inhabitants. They have not been allowed to return. The main reason is fear that they are IS supporters. In the disputed territories there is also a political dispute between the Kurds that wish to annex these areas and the Hashd and Iran that oppose Kurdish independence. The result is that these towns are likely to remain empty for the foreseeable future. This does not appear to be a systematic policy however as people were just allowed to return to Tikrit two months after it was cleared. Read the article here.
I don't usually say this but this is a must read. My latest interview is with Naval War College Prof Craig Whiteside in which he challenges the conventional wisdom about how the Islamic State was able to make its comeback. It wasn't Syria, the Maliki government or former Baathists all of which regularly get repeated these days. He also discusses the tactics IS used and how US policy is failing because it doesn't understand IS. Here's a link. I really encourage everyone to give it a read.
Just published my 85th interview for Musings On Iraq. This time I talked with Tom Ricks about U.S. military strategy in Iraq before the Surge when America was floundering. Here's a link.
IS is a bunch of Ba’athists in disguise? No.
Link:http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.co.uk/...e-in-iraq.html
Joel,
Your Q3 and Craig's answer are important. I recommend SWC readers check it out in full. I have cited a few key IMHO sentences:..there isn’t a more dangerous idea out there right now that is absolutely unproved then the one that says IS is a bunch of Ba’athists in disguise. I am not saying it is not true, I am saying that we just don’t know this for sure.
There are former Saddam regime members that joined IS to be sure
...When actually mentioned, it almost always points out that they publicly recanted their Ba’athist past and acknowledged their mistakes when joining.
Proponents of the Ba’ath angle disregard this final fact: when IS took formal control of Mosul last year, they rounded up dozens of former prominent Ba’athists in the city… and executed them. I think that act sums up the real relationship.
davidbfpo
Just published my weekly security report for 3rd wk of June in Iraq. Only 1 successful car bomb and 2 others destroyed during the week after IS launched 67 the week before. Offensive in Garma and Baiji dragging on for weeks. Plan to take back Ramadi on hold as there apparently is no unified command. Read the full report here.
Over a month ago Ramadi fell to the Islamic State, but the government forces have made no real move to retake the city other than to surround it. That's because there are too many groups involved each with its own commanders that have their own agenda. For example local tribes wanted to immediately attack Ramadi but were stopped by the security forces and Hashd and told to wait until a plan was formulated. The Hashd then unilaterally announced that it was going to cut off IS's supply routes in northern Anbar and then it would focus upon Fallujah rather than Anbar. This is not the first time this happened as with the Tikrit op the plans were made by pro-Iranian Hashd forces and Tehran and then presented to Baghdad as a fait accompli. Read more here.
Published my weekly security report for 4th wk of June in Iraq. IS upped its attacks but casualties remained the same as the previous week. Heavy fighting continues for Garma in Anbar and Baiji in Salahaddin, which government has been trying to retake for over a month. Read the full report here.
Attacks were slightly up in June 2015 in Iraq, but casualties remained the same. Overall violence has been declining since the start of the year. Anbar and Baghdad have been main focus of the Islamic State. Govt forces have been focused upon Salahaddin. For a complete rundown and charts on violence in Iraq here's a link.
Just published a very interesting interview with Princeton's Sara Pursley about whether Iraq is an artificial state or not. This is a common argument to explain why Iraq has so many problems. The argument goes that the European powers carved up the Middle East creating Iraq after WWI with the Sykes-Picot treaty and this made the state artificial and thus fragile. After IS took Mosul it too shot a video taking down the Iraq-Syrian border saying that it was ending Sykes-Picot. Despite this conventional wisdom that treaty did not create Iraq nor the modern Middle East. Rather it was local struggles and conflicts that shaped the borders over a number of decades just like every other state. Here's a link to the interview.
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks