Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Beelzebubalicious]

I am surprised by the reaction of Ukrainians in the East and South. I didn't expect that kind of reaction.

I was just wondering what a war with Russia might do to Ukraine. Their military is supposed to be woefully unprepared and under-resourced and in bad need of reform. If Russia crossed the border, it might stir up nationalist feelings, unite the country in opposition and spark investment in the military. If Ukraine isn't going to join NATO, the next best thing is to break with Russia.

[Stan]

I am surprised by the reaction of Ukrainians in the East and South. I didn't expect that kind of reaction.

I was just wondering what a war with Russia might do to Ukraine. Their military is supposed to be woefully unprepared and under-resourced and in bad need of reform. If Russia crossed the border, it might stir up nationalist feelings, unite the country in opposition and spark investment in the military. If Ukraine isn't going to join NATO, the next best thing is to break with Russia.

Hey Eric,
Beside Palin's recent statements to the Kremlin, the political ramblings in Tbilisi seem to be moving in every direction, perhaps even the right one

Would Putin dare cross the border now with all the rhetoric and our tub toys in the Black Sea ? Jeez, that's a darn good question !

Regards, Stan

[Beelzebubalicious]

USG seems ready to admit Ukraine in to NATO, but the Europeans seem less enthusiastic. Russia aside, what are the implications for Europe and NATO? I haven't really followed this closely. I'm more familiar with the implications for EU membership...

[jmm99]

I do NOT mean Gov. Palin is a no-brainer.

from Stan's link above

Palin told interviewer Charles Gibson of ABC News that Georgia should be granted membership of NATO. When pressed on whether this would mean that the U.S. would be obliged to defend Georgia if Russian troops went into the country again, she replied, "Perhaps so. I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you're going to be expected to be called upon and help."

"What I think is that smaller democratic countries that are invaded by a larger power is something for us to be vigilant against," Palin added. "We have got to show the support, in this case, for Georgia."

So, what does the NATO Treaty say:

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

http://www.nato.int/docu/basictxt/treaty.htm

Now, admittedly, we can find weasel-words in Article 5 - "such action as it deems necessary". So, a NATO state could find "the use of armed force" to be "not necessary". A warning to little countries ?

Bottom line: Gov. Palin's "Perhaps" was justified by the treaty's weasel-words; and the rest of her answer was substantially accurate as to NATO obligations.

PS 1: My dog is not in this political fight - I support neither ticket - but, fair is fair.

PS 2: Article 5 provides the implications for Europe and the US.

[Ron Humphrey]

Why exactly would it be surprising that the Ukrainians no matter their particular bend towards the Russia-Georgia deal would still as a strong majority less inclined to lean towards hoaving the same thing happen to them.

IOW just because not all feel its worth their own skin to "back Georgia" doesn't mean they would be any less concerned about their own skin in relation to Russian intentions.