An ex-CIA analyst of some note, but unknown to me, Nada Bakos commented on the current situation:
I have never thought of AQ as down and out or part of a resurgence, it's a metamorphosis. An ideology has tentacles, that's why it's hard to predict how or if it will grow. Each of these regional groups all share the same ideological platform that central al Qaida has propagated since the 1990s. It’s time to re-evaluate the United States’ definition of victory against the War on Terror. Is defeating al Qaeda’s central leadership considered a victory when the ideology fosters a following of lone individuals and loose networks? Given my experience following Zarqawi, it’s my opinion that we need to step back from the reality we came to terms with right after 9/11 and evolve with the extremism we hope to combat.
Link:http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1rlp8i9

Her bio:https://espionneanalyst.wordpress.com/about/

Stephen Tankel, who I do know, chimes in with an article full of choice quotes; here is one:
...the fundamental question of how we adapt our counter-terrorism architecture to nest within, rather than drive, our security policy.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2013/08/not...qaeda-article/