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Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri Calls on Hamas to Implement Islamic Sharai Rule in Gaza
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,286520,00.html
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FOXNEWS.COM HOME > WORLD
Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri Calls on Hamas to Implement Islamic Sharai Rule in Gaza
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,286520,00.html
ICG, 20 Dec 07: Inside Gaza: The Challenge of Clans and Families
Complete 32 page paper at the link.Throughout Gaza’s history, its powerful clans and families have played a part whose importance has fluctuated with the nature of central authority but never disappeared. As the Palestinian Authority (PA) gradually collapsed under the weight of almost a decade of renewed confrontation with Israel, they, along with political movements and militias, filled the void. Today they are one of the most significant obstacles Hamas faces in trying to consolidate its authority and reinstate stability in the territory it seized control of in June 2007. Although they probably lack the unity or motivation to become a consistent and effective opposition, either on their own or in alliance with Fatah, they could become more effective should popular dissatisfaction with the situation in Gaza grow. There are some, as yet inconclusive, indications that Hamas understands this and is moderating its approach in an attempt to reach an accommodation.
It has been six months since Hamas took control of Gaza, and, despite recent suggestions of possible reconciliation talks with Fatah, the geographic split of Palestinian territories risks enduring. Israel’s tightening siege and continued conflict between Hamas and the Ramallah based government have imposed exceptional hardship on Gazans, seriously crippling the Islamists’ ability to govern and fostering popular dissatisfaction. As a result, Hamas is focused on more achievable priorities, including restoring law and order after a period of tremendous chaos.
The role of clans and families is central to this task. Over recent years, their growing influence has been a double edged sword. By providing a social safety net to numerous needy Gazans in a time of uncertainty, they helped prevent a total collapse, yet they simultaneously contributed to the mounting disorder. Although they have filled the void resulting from the judiciary’s breakdown, they have done more than most to promote lawlessness.....
Edit to add: I just recalled this older (Sep 04) paper from ICG - Who Governs the West Bank? - that also speaks to some of these same clan and family influences. Discussion of "Informal Networks" begins on page 18 of the 43 page pdf.
Last edited by Jedburgh; 12-21-2007 at 02:29 PM.
WINEP, 21 Dec 07: The Palestinians: Between State Failure and Civil War
Complete 56 page paper at the link.The Palestinian Authority (PA), though lacking certain key attributes of sovereignty, has largely functioned as a de facto state since its creation in 1994. Almost from the outset, however, the process of Palestinian state formation was accompanied by a parallel process of economic decline and institutional, territorial, and political fragmentation. The latter process was greatly accelerated by the second intifada (2000–2004), the formation of a Hamas government following January 2006 legislative elections (leading to international sanctions on the PA) and then a short-lived national-unity government, and the June 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza. Today, the PA—hovering between survival and collapse—displays many of the traits of a failed state.....
latest World Bank report
Both the ICG and WINEP reports are excellent pieces.
The World Bank's recent report on Investing in Palestinian Economic Reform and Development, prepared for the December 17 international donor pledging conference in Paris, can be found here, or via the World Bank WBG website.
The actual French MFA pledging conference website is here.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The course of the Palestinian economy since the Second Intifadah has
left per capita GDP in 2006 ($1,130) at 40% less than in 1999, and has altered an already-fragile economy from one driven by investment and private sector productivity, to one sustained by government and private consumption, and donor aid.
Reversing this downward cycle requires parallel actions by the
Palestinian Authority (PA), Israel and the donors. Reform and development of the Palestinian economy and its institutions must proceed immediately. To succeed, these reforms must be implemented with determination by the PA, underwritten by donors and supported by Israeli actions. In the same vein, Israeli policies that impact the Palestinian economy and Palestinian actions on security to reinforce these policies must proceed in parallel.
...
An economic scenario analysis shows that the successful implementation of
Palestinian commitments alone, with partial donor funding and continued
movement and trade restrictions, will fall well short of the intended targets. Achieving 5% growth rates will depend critically on the commitment of the international community to fill the total fiscal gap over the next three years, as well as on the revival in the private sector as a result of concrete steps by Israel on settlement growth, and movement and access restrictions. Even with full funding but no relaxation in the closure regime, growth will be slightly negative, at around -2% per year.
...
Under every foreseeable scenario, the short-term viability of the Palestinian economy will be driven by aid. Even under the most optimistic scenarios significant aid will continue to be required for the medium-term. Clearly, the ability of the private sector to resume its place as a driver for growth will have a major bearing on the sustained health of the Palestinian economy and thus its aid requirements, which will therefore be even larger in the absence of improvements in movements and access restrictions.
Palestinian Tribes, Clans, and Notable Families
This article appeared in the September 2008 issue of Strategic Insights, a bi-monthly electronic journal produced by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA.
Editor’s Note: In recognition of the important (and largely unanticipated) role Iraqi tribes played during the U.S. occupation of Iraq, the USG brought a number of country experts to Washington in July 2008 to comment on the significance of tribes, clans and other extended familial units in the Middle East. The following is the paper presented at that conference by Glenn E. Robinson on Palestinian case.
Introduction:
Palestinian society in the West Bank and Gaza Strip is characterized by three types of clan-like familial structures: tribes, clans, and notable families. While all three share similar extended familial attributes, behavioral obligations (especially on males), informal networks, and honor-shame cultural systems, they are also quite distinct in their origins and continuing importance.
Here is the PDF link:
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2008/...insonSep08.pdf
Last edited by franksforum; 09-16-2008 at 07:26 PM. Reason: Misspelling of Palestinian
Interesting piece and the cautions at the end are especially valuable:
Clans are a double-edged sword.
The power and identity of tribes/clans are in inverse proportion to those of the state.
Do not romanticize tribes and clans.
Clans benefit from a weak state, notables from a coherent state.
Clans are not ideologically committed, will play off outsiders.
...in the context of clashes between clans and the ruling authority:
ArabNews, 17 Sep 08: Eleven Die in Gaza Gunbattle
The conflict between Hamas and the Dughmush clan was also discussed in the ICG report, as well as the SI article linked in earlier posts in this thread.Eleven people, including a police officer and an infant, were killed yesterday in a fresh outbreak of internecine Palestinian clashes in the Gaza Strip, the worst in more than a month. At least 40 people were wounded.
The fierce gunbattle took place in Al-Sabara neighborhood of Gaza City between the Hamas-run police and members of the powerful Dughmush clan....
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW BRIEFING
Palestine Divided
Ramallah/Gaza/Brussels, 17 December 2008: The division between the West Bank and Gaza is set to endure despite the growing number of international actors who acknowledge that without Palestinian unity, a genuine peace process with Israel is unattainable.
Palestine Divided the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, argues that the current reconciliation process between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) is a continuation of their struggle through other means. Prioritising partisan concerns over the national interest, both see greater cost than reward in compromise. Without regional and international incentives to shift this calculus, Palestine’s political-territorial division will only deepen.
“Both Fatah and Hamas want reconciliation, but only on their own terms”, says Robert Blecher, Crisis Group Senior Middle East Analyst. “They see time as an ally in consolidating their positions”.
Hamas’s seizure of Gaza and bloody tactics have hardened Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s stance. His cost-benefit analysis is clear: reconciliation could cost his Fatah movement an administrative and security monopoly in the West Bank and de facto hegemony over the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO); partnership with Hamas might jeopardise negotiations with Israel and international financial support, all for little more than shared control over Gaza.
Hamas sees reconciliation as a ploy to deprive it of control over Gaza without commensurate gain. With Gaza firmly in hand, Hamas’s price for inclusion in the political system has risen. Gazans are suffering an acute economic and social crisis, but the Islamic movement is internally secure. Further, as they see it, President Abbas’s domestic legitimacy will be crucially undermined when his presidential term expires on 9 January 2009.
Changing the dynamics that have convinced both Fatah and Hamas that time is on their side will be daunting. At a minimum, it will require both a change in the regional landscape (through U.S. engagement with Syria and Iran) and a clear signal from the international community that this time they would not oppose a Fatah-Hamas partnership; would judge the government not by composition but by its conduct; and would assess the Islamist movement on a more pragmatic basis.
“The bottom line is that the kind of unity that seemed possible two years ago has become an appreciably more complicated endeavour”, states Robert Malley, Director of Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program. “It will take a significant shift in the international and regional landscape to achieve it”.
Last edited by Jedburgh; 12-17-2008 at 04:35 PM. Reason: Fixed link.
Preparing for the Next Battle of Gaza
Israel doesn't want to allow Hamas to build up the kind of strength Hezbollah did in So Leb
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle1942918.ece
ISRAEL’s new defence minister Ehud Barak is planning an attack on Gaza within weeks to crush the Hamas militants who have seized power there.
According to senior Israeli military sources, the plan calls for 20,000 troops to destroy much of Hamas’s military capability in days.
The raid would be triggered by Hamas rocket attacks against Israel or a resumption of suicide bombings.
Barak, who is expected to become defence minister tomorrow, has already demanded detailed plans to deploy two armoured divisions and an infantry division, accompanied by assault drones and F-16 jets, against Hamas.
I sort of got the feeling that Israel would look at the recent downfall of Fatah on the Strip as a blessing in disguise.
"But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
"Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"
How in Gods name is the loss of Gaza to HAMAS a good thing for Israel? I will say this again (now that I am stateside and have a goooooddd coffee) Israel screwed up with Arafat - Isolating him and removing his tools for stabilizing the Palestnians gave the entire kitandkaboodle to the Islamic Extremists ... when faced with moderates who were terrorists to suicidal exremists for whom all future generations are enourgaed to become terrorists, you choose the moderates.Originally Posted by Culpeper
This things is a disaster for Israel, the USA and the ME region as a whole. We have let the extremists set the agenda and do it democratically through legitimate elections!
All we can do now is hope someone in Israel has the guts to make thr tough call ... assist FATAH in the West Bank establish, rapidly and with UN assistance a new independent Palestine including a right to return for Palestinians in Lebanon and overseas, the rich, smart ones - to the west bank. That way, HAMAS will end as an entitiy, people moving back to the WB can isolate Gaza and it becomes a pan-Arab/international problem.
Israel won't invade again.
Will the Israelis take this historic chance to stop a radicalized, Iranian inspired terrorist group from doing same to 9 million Palestinians? Doubtful but its an option to be explored.
Putting Foot to Al Qaeda Ass Since 1993
Many Israelis see Fatah as a trojan horse. They didn't want to deal with it but it was just legitimate enough in the world's eyes that they were pressured to do so. There will be no pressure to politically deal with Hamas.
I would hope that they do, but somehow I think that they won't. Certain attitudes are too deeply ingrained for them to see the opportunity that this gives them.
"On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
T.R. Fehrenbach This Kind of War
[QUOTE=Abu Buckwheat;18651]How in Gods name is the loss of Gaza to HAMAS a good thing for Israel? I will say this again (now that I am stateside and have a goooooddd coffee) Israel screwed up with Arafat - Isolating him and removing his tools for stabilizing the Palestnians gave the entire kitandkaboodle to the Islamic Extremists ... when faced with moderates who were terrorists to suicidal exremists for whom all future generations are enourgaed to become terrorists, you choose the moderates.
This things is a disaster for Israel, the USA and the ME region as a whole. We have let the extremists set the agenda and do it democratically through legitimate elections!
QUOTE]
Thank you. This case goes with the they deserve each other theory i turn to when either side does something remarkably dumb; in case you don't get what AW is speaking of, think of training dogs. If all you do is beat 'em, you just make 'em meaner. We now a meaner breed has dominance in Gaza.
I don't know that Israel has the will to go it again after last year in southern Lebanon. It would be a remarkable step forward if they were to do it jointly with Fatah. The only bright side of this is Gaza is not southern Lebanon and can be relatively isolated.
Tom
Hamas is now trained and funded by Iran. The Iranian-Hezbollah-Hamas-Syria axis is in ascendance. To compare this axis with Israel and say "they deserve each other" is hard to understand. Our democratic allies may make mistakes in wartime -- certainly we do. That doesn't mean that we say "they deserve each other". Certainly Britain and France did not "deserve" the Nazis even though their hard line at Versailles may have helped create them. A sense of proportion and moral perspective is needed.
As I've watched the conflict in Gaza over the past week it occurs two me that the schism within the Palestinians--we can't really say it's between moderates and extremists, but let's say between extremists and hyper extremists--provides a workable solution. What the world needs is not one but two Palestinian states. Let Fatah run the West Bank; let Hamas run Gaza. The Saudis and Iranians, if they are so inclined, can support the Gaza state. The United States and Europe can work with the West Bank state. Then the hyper extremists in Gaza can continue to blame Israel and the world rather than themselves for their poverty and misery, but Israel can seal it off much easier than it could the West Bank, thus helping with its security problematique. If the West Bank state continues to move toward moderation and democracy, it can gradually be integrated into the community of nations.
No time for rockets
One of the benefits to Israel from the fighting is that the two sides have been too busy to fire rockets into the Negev. I suspect that the rockets may have been an attempt to provoke Israel into taking action in Gaza that would have benefited Fatah. With Fatah's defeat, for now the rockets are silent.
I still think that none of the Palestinian factions have anything of value to offer Israel.
The great government of Hamas ordered it's terrorists to remove their masks except when attacking Israel. Abbas has set up an emergency government and outlawed Hamas. Some morons are firing rockets into Israel from Lebanon. Israel is in the middle.
Like Steve suggested. Which side do you think Israel is going to get aggressive with? Is the world really going to do anything to Israel if they put the squeeze on Hamas? Either militarily or diplomatically? Already the Strip is isolated. Hamas won the battle. Now it time to go hungry. People on the street in the Strip are stating things like, "I only have God and a bag of flour", and "We just went back 100 years". So much for radical Islmasist ideas and the general Muslim public.
I'm surprised nobody has started a thread entitled, "Is Hamas and the Gaza Strip another Iraq". Let the moral relativist officer corps begin.
Last edited by Culpeper; 06-17-2007 at 05:25 PM.
"But suppose everybody on our side felt that way?"
"Then I'd certainly be a damned fool to feel any other way. Wouldn't I?"
USIP, Jun 07
Public Opinion in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: From Geneva to Disengagement to Kadima and Hamas
Israeli analysts and pundits enjoy quoting Henry Kissinger’s assertion that “Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic policy.” Kissinger’s comment, while stressed too strongly, captures well the common understanding among political scientists and international relations specialists that domestic considerations have a significant effect on foreign policy. This monograph focuses on one particular domestic imperative of utmost importance in periods of conflict and its resolution: public opinion.
Intercommunal and international conflicts affect the most basic elements holding societies together: beliefs, value systems, collective memories, and identity perceptions. The disruption of these same elements—due to conflict—can heighten emotions and increase stress, a situation that often takes a costly toll on society. These situations are made worse when leaders make bad policy decisions. In such times, then, leaders must be attuned to public sentiment, as public-opinion
support becomes critical.
How does public opinion act as a domestic imperative on policymaking? This monograph addresses this question, using extensive research on both Israeli and Palestinian public opinion collected during the second intifada, which began in 2000....
Abbas Swears In Emergency Government
18 June NY Times - Abbas Swears In Emergency Government by Isabel Kershner and Taghreed El-Khodary.
The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah, swore in an emergency government at his headquarters here on Sunday, reasserting his authority over the West Bank days after Fatah’s rival, Hamas, routed his forces in Gaza and seized power there.
Adding to the turbulence, two Katyusha rockets fired from Lebanon landed in the Israeli northern border town of Kiryat Shmona on Sunday evening, an Israeli Army spokesman said. They caused some damage but no casualties, he said.
The rockets were the first fired over Israel’s northern border since a cease-fire ended last summer’s war against Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia. Hezbollah denied having any connection with the rocket attacks on Sunday...
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