Naval drama(s) off Arabia (catch all)

[Bob's World]

"AQAP" is primarily a western label for Saudi insurgents taking sanctuary in Yemen. In Yemen there also exists a very reasonable revolutionary insurgency between the two families who compete for control, and all the rest who suffer under both.

There is little here for the US to worry about, unless of course we come in as an obstacle between populations and their governments. There is much here that needs to be sorted out. But not much that is our business to intercede upon.

We have allowed the Al Saud family to become insanely wealthy, and protected them from having to address the reasonable concerns of the majority of their population. I see little reason to protect them from the unreasonable response of the minority.

[Bill Moore]

"AQAP" is primarily a western label for Saudi insurgents taking sanctuary in Yemen. In Yemen there also exists a very reasonable revolutionary insurgency between the two families who compete for control, and all the rest who suffer under both.

There is little here for the US to worry about, unless of course we come in as an obstacle between populations and their governments. There is much here that needs to be sorted out. But not much that is our business to intercede upon.

We have allowed the Al Saud family to become insanely wealthy, and protected them from having to address the reasonable concerns of the majority of their population. I see little reason to protect them from the unreasonable response of the minority.

http://www.latimes.com/world/middlee...ry.html#page=1

AQAP has repeatedly attempted to smuggle sophisticated bombs onto passenger jets and cargo planes headed for the United States. U.S. intelligence considers it the terrorist network's most active and most dangerous franchise and says it has a global strategy.

In 2013, a threat linked to AQAP prompted U.S. officials to close more than two dozen embassies and consulates around the world. This year, the group said it had planned the deadly rampage in January at the Paris offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.

http://www.heritage.org/research/com...grows-in-yemen

The concerns about AQAP are for good reason.

For example, there’s AQAP’s plot to bring down a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day 2009 with an underwear bomb and its attempt to ship explosive printer cartridges by air from the Middle East to U.S. addresses in 2010.

The terror group is also infamous for its English-language, online magazine “Inspire” which includes “how-to” articles for terrorist wannabes, and for Anwar al-Awlaki, the American-born and educated AQAP propagandist and external ops chief.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...-qaeda-threat/

This piece makes a good point that AQAP are not the insurgents, rather they have a relationship with the insurgents. To this AQAP remains the greatest Sunni terrorist group threat against the homeland. An article well the worth the read, it provides a good run down on U.S. FID efforts in Yemen, which were actually quite effective initially.

Now, Al Qaeda isn’t generally an insurgency organization. Look at them in Afghanistan; it was the Taliban who were the insurgents, not Al Qaeda itself. Their mandate is the rest of the world. I think in a sense, Ansar al-Sharia is almost a development of their own Taliban. And with that, you now end up with a dual threat that needs to be managed with two different sets of tools.

… If we could get the guys who really lead, really manage, really organize AQAP, if we were somehow able to get rid of them, I think Ansar al-Sharia would still be there. And you might even be able to make the case that if the Yemenis were able to get rid of Ansar al-Sharia, you might not necessarily get rid of AQAP. So they feed on each other. They support each other. They certainly are related, but they’re not identical.

[AdamG]

I think we're going to need some Hans Zimmer incidental music soon.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a stepped-up response to Iranian backing of Shiite rebels in Yemen, the Navy aircraft carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt, is steaming toward the waters off Yemen to beef up security and join other American ships that are prepared to intercept any Iranian vessels carrying weapons to the Houthi rebels.

The deployment comes after a U.N. Security Council resolution approved last week imposed an arms embargo on the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels. The resolution passed in a 14-0 vote with Russia abstaining.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT

[AdamG]

Wild card in the mix.

ZHOUSHAN, Zhejiang - The 20th fleet from China's navy left east China's port city Zhoushan for the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somali to escort civil ships.

The fleet is comprised of the missile destroyer Jinan, missile frigate Yiyang and supply ship Qiandaohu. It is equipped with two helicopters and staffed by dozens of special operation soldiers and more than 800 officers and soldiers.

Jinan, commissioned at the end of 2014, is engaging in its first escort mission. This is Qiandaohu's third escort mission.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2...t_19996640.htm

[tequila]

The Chinese already landed in Aden to take off their nationals. I wouldn't imagine this would be much more than an antipiracy mission, as listed - what exists in Yemen that China would be interested in?

[davidbfpo]

The USN has:

seven combat ships in the waters around Yemen as the Saudi-led bombing campaign there continues.....the destroyers USS Forrest Sherman and USS Winston Churchill; the minesweepers USS Sentry and USS Dextrous; and three amphibious ships carrying about 2,200 Marines, the USS Iwo Jima, the USS New York and the USS Fort McHenry, a Navy official told The Washington Post. The USNS Charles Drew, a dry cargo ship, is also in the region.

Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/c...de-continues/?


Given the diplomatic skill shown by Iran in the region for sometime now, leaving aside for a moment the alliance in Iraq, would Iranian ships actually carry weapons? What if they carry non-military cargoes, such as medical or relief supplies?

[AdamG]

The Chinese already landed in Aden to take off their nationals. I wouldn't imagine this would be much more than an antipiracy mission, as listed - what exists in Yemen that China would be interested in?

Perception (China is a Player): China has invested heavily in Africa, they want the locals to take them seriously.

Force Projection: the Chinese have three surface ships in that convoy. Think they might have slipped a sub or two into the mix?

[tequila]

Perception (China is a Player): China has invested heavily in Africa, they want the locals to take them seriously.

Force Projection: the Chinese have three surface ships in that convoy. Think they might have slipped a sub or two into the mix?

Yemen isn't in Africa. I doubt many African countries where China has an interest care about Yemen.

Here is an interesting article about Africa's relative non-importance in Chinese foreign policy circles. If there is a sub in the mix, it's likely because the military wanted to do an exercise, not some sort of mischief-making at work. That would require a much higher level of attention than Africa usually gets.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/pa...ign-policy-sun