Russo-Ukraine War 2016 (July-September)

[OUTLAW 09]

I've long argued that Putin is far more likely to attack Belarus or Kazakhstan than the Baltics, as the former two are:

• Not protected by any major and/or nuclear-armed powers
• Hold more "resources" for Russia than the Baltics (i.e. human and commodity)
• Regarded as much part of Russia historic "buffer zone", "privileged sphere of interest" or "near abroad" as Ukraine
• Exhibiting tensions towards the "Russian World" i.e. distancing themselves from Moscow and Russian language and culture

Here is the latest from Jamestown: Minsk Fears Moscow May Organize Hybrid War and Color Revolution in Belarus

"Many governments in the post-Soviet space fear they may be threatened by a color revolution; others are worried that they will become victims of a hybrid war. But Belarus is worried about both at the same time, something that makes it difficult for Minsk to cope because the challenges posed by the one and those posed by the other are quite different. Moreover, the policies that might be most useful to block one could, in some circumstances, have the effect of making the latter more likely. This is especially true because one outside power—Vladimir Putin’s Russia—is interested in making use of both in pursuit of Moscow’s ends..."

Russia has no need to further "threaten" Belarus as they have all they need to do that already stationed inside Belarus ........and as Crimea has shown they can beef up those bases and Belarus cannot really say anything especially since Belarus is a member of CIS as well......

Based on the Russian statements that they perceived the NATO actions in the Baltics to be militarily provocative they are following their Cold War Warsaw Pact strategy of building a second line of defense.

Just as the Soviet Army was forward based inside the GDR it had far fewer troops in Czechoslovakia but built a second line of defense by basing more troops in say Poland and next to the Czechoslovakian border in order to stop a "perceived NATO ground attack"

Yes Belarus can feel a "perceived" Russian military threat by these new troop basing's....IMHO it is a second line of defense against a "perceived NATO military threat coming from the Baltics'.

So Putin wins twice...he "threatens Belarus" and defends against NATO in one single move.

BUT.......

This is Why @NATO Needs to be Worried About Russia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...putin-and-nato …

BUT........

Putin is rapidly reaching his decision point of "guns or butter" as he cannot afford any further "both"........I had said back after Crimea and shortly after the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine he would soon reach that point and it is now literally in front of his nose....that is why he is suddenly "playing nice" before the NATO Warsaw Summit by "lowering tensions in the Baltics" by turning on his "transponders"......begs the question if he turned them on...WHO turned them off?????

Russia Is Very Quickly Running Out Of Cash
https://lnkd.in/e5XaKxN