Firn---the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed late last week they could hold up under sanctions as they had over 500B in foreign currencies---any evidence of that?
Firn---the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed late last week they could hold up under sanctions as they had over 500B in foreign currencies---any evidence of that?
JMA---you bring up an interesting point---the SU after 1945 and under Stalin took a move to ensure in the new eastern bloc that Russian was the primary language thus they started "forced" immigration of ethnic Russians into areas that were not previously Russian ethnic areas--remember the SU at the height of the Cold War had over 136 primary different languages and as was English/French were the official languages in Africa during the colonial period so was Russian the official language. This was also true in say Poland, Hungary, the former Czechoslovakia.
In the Ukraine virtually all Ukrainians speak Russian.
In the "stans" one will find pockets of ethnic Russians as well.
IMO the Putin Doctrine is dangerous as he can on a wim change the definition---meaning today it is language/ethnicity/culture and tomorrow what raw resources Russia needs to survive on, or a perceived "threat".
IE a demonstrator is killed in the Donetsk and the Russian FM states we will move in to defend Russians if the Ukrainians cannot control their country.
They claimed he was Russian when in fact the was a proUkrainian member of a right wing party.
Now with the latest claim of capturing of a US drone over the Crimea (one could argue they were attacked by NATO)---a Hunter ---which they claimed was launched from Bavaria by the 66th MI Group which is actually stationed in Darmstadt.
****By the way the Hunter has only a range of 125 miles which if my geography is correct it could have never reached the Crimea much less loiter over it. Unless it was launched by the Navy.
The wim can be redefined to whenever he wants it to mean--that is the dangerous aspect of the Doctrine and it stands on its head the Westphalia Treaty in the 1700s and the respecting of territorial borders since the end of WW2.
This has nothing to do with "spheres of influence" ---it is all about annexation and rebuilding of the former SU pure and simple. Remember Putin served as a KGB officer in Dresden in the GDR during his cold war days. He never did like the breakup of the SU and was vocal about that in a number of recent interviews.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-15-2014 at 03:15 PM.
The start?
Prof. Schindler has tweeted a Russian platoon has conducted a helicopter landing near a natural gas extraction on one the narrow isthmus between the Crimea and the mainland, at Strilkove - in Ukrainian territory from Google Maps.
Location follow:https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=Str...ed=0CAkQ_AUoAQ
Update via Reuters incursion defeated:http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/...l.html?hp&_r=0
Official Ukrainian protest, which does not make it clear if incursion was defeated:http://mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/ne...nsykij-oblasti
Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-15-2014 at 05:39 PM. Reason: Add 2nd link
davidbfpo
1854 Crimean War, 1914 July crisis and today
Professor Christopher Clark, author of 'The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914', adds a commentary and a reminder that much of what is happening today has done so before:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-958692.html
He ends:The Ukrainian emergency is a reminder of how quickly events can undo the best-laid plans and produce unforeseen constellations. But all the key players in this drama appear to have grasped one thing: namely that the answers history gives to the questions of the present are multiple and conditional, not singular and absolute.
davidbfpo
The Chinese were there!
Over a week ago I posted this (Post 339), edited down:Thanks to a "lurker" familiar with the region CNOC owns and operates with its own national staff this facility. CNOC? Chinese National Oil Company, sometimes known as CNOOC - adding Overseas. I cannot readily confirm this, but they know the region from regular, long stays and investments.Originally Posted by davidbfpo
Perhaps the Chinese aspect explains the rapid Russian exit?
Some 2011 background on the gas field:Link:http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/chor...sea-shelf-3062Ukraine's state-run JSC Chornomornaftogaz has tripled daily production at the Strilkove gas field, to 30,000 cubic meters of gas, the company's press service has reported.
This Ukrainian company was based @ Simferopol, owing US$1 billion to its Ukrainian parent company (in February 2014) and was nationalised by the new Crimean state and then the PM announced:See Wiki:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chornomornaftogaz and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naftogazthe new owner of the company would be Gazprom
Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-26-2014 at 12:42 AM.
davidbfpo
Michael Gerson writes for the Washinton Post and his paragraph on Ukraine hits the nail on the head.
In the early 1990s, Ukraine briefly possessed the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, including about 1,900 strategic weapons, an inheritance from the Soviet crackup. In exchange for security assurances — specifically, a Russian promise to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” — the Ukrainian government turned over all its nuclear weapons to Russia in 1996. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is now a muddy scrap of paper stuck to Vladimir Putin’s boot. According to a Ukrainian legislator, there is now a “strong sentiment” in what remains of his country that this denuclearization was “a big mistake.”
Local factors
From a "lurker" familiar with the region banks in the Ukraine are restricting bank withdrawals to the local equivalent of US$150, apparently the banks explain the government considers itself at "war".
They also mention that there is a distinct gap educationally between eastern and western Ukraine - with the majority Russian-speaking east being better educated. This was explained by the different local demand for education, the east being far more industrialized and since 1990 looking to export. The Ukraine is a major arms supplier, in the top five and in the city of Kharkov the state-owned tank factory remains the leading employer.
Has anyone noted what the Austrian stance is on this crisis, in particular on economic sanctions? Since 1990 Austrian investors have made significant investments in eastern Ukraine, accumulating local political influence in some cities.
davidbfpo
In all of the discussions one has tended to forget that the Russian Army is now fully armed, manned and supplied in two Divisions worth and is still sitting where in theory "they are just conducting field training".
All the while both Putin and his Defense Ministry are claiming they are not "interested" in the Ukraine and or Moldavia and are not a threat to anyone. It was initially Putin who also stated that he had no interest in the Crimea and then moved one week later
If that were the case then has anyone heard the Russians indicate that the exercise is over and the troops are back in their barracks?
This is any interesting link that says if they go it is now to the mid May timeframe.
Again since Putin seems to think that the sanctions were just a slap on the wrist then he might have a go following the motto we have survived the first round better to get it over and then bunker in.
Interesting that the two German former Chancellors Schmidt and Schroeder seem to be fully supportive of Putin's move and blame basically the West---surprises me about Schmidt. Can understand Schroeder as he made personally a ton of money for himself with the South Stream pipeline.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ity_in_ukraine
@davidbfpo: The Austrians have been perhaps the most dovish from what I have seen. It is no surprise that the Firtash was arrested in Austria, this 'neutral' country has deeper economic and political ties with Russia then it's size might suggest. High living standards, calm political waters, a central location and formerly a strong privacy for your money even if you weren't a resident. A Switzerland light within the EU form that point of view.
Is the 150$ limit enforced in unoccupied Ukraine? It wouldn't surprise me considering this graph:
A limit dampens the demand peaks and the currency fall
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
That's not the reason.
Austria had elevated close economic ties with Eastern Europe to a kind of Grand Strategy. Its corporations were buying companies in Eastern Europe and operate them as subsidiaries. Its banks emphasized business with Eastern Europe very much.
Germany was busy with reunification - Austria was busy building relationships with Eastern Europe.
It's just not common knowledge because Austria is small, it was never a topic on the consumer brand level (more about financial markets and component suppliers), and whenever something goes wrong Austrians succeed to blame it on Germany anyway.
That's a timely article, it is just so ostfrontesque to read stuff like:
In any case the Ukrainians should not listen to the words of Putin but prepare for his potential deeds....The winter ... was mild with little snow, while the spring is early and warm. The soil is drying rapidly, meaning that it will soon be possible to move heavy vehicles off of highways and into fields in southern areas of Ukraine close to the Black and Azov Seas.
Last edited by Firn; 03-26-2014 at 02:32 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
Lest we forget
Professor John Schindler has two short commentaries. The first is contemporary and ends with:Link:http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...#ixzz2x5DC9SNxThe West will prevail in this Cold War too because Putin’s corruption-laden model for Russia is unsustainable in the long run. In terms of population and per capita GDP, Russia is more or less Mexico with nuclear weapons. We are not headed for a bipolar world again, but a multipolar one where Russia can be a dangerous spoiler. But NATO, with American leadership, needs to wake up. This time we must ensure that Russians are well aware that they lost—so they will come to terms with the Kremlin’s crimes, including against its own people, over the last hundred years. That alone will ensure this dreadful cycle does not repeat itself yet again.
The second uses history to remind us that states motives can include the unfashionable, except as he points out to the Poles and I'd wager a few others too. This ends with:Link:http://20committee.com/2014/03/25/ho...kraine-crisis/How Ukraine responds to this aggression will determine not just the next weeks and months, but how much Ukrainians in decades to come think their country is worth saving and recreating in the aftermath of war and occupation. Honor matters more here than dry theories of international relations or theoretical appeals to human rights. There are some things worth dying for. If you don’t think your country’s existence is one of them, you probably won’t have a country for long, at least if you live next to Russia.
davidbfpo
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks