Insurgent Video Targets Blackwater

[SteveMetz]

I wonder if we didn't have as much red tape could we have a fighting chance?

IMO, wouldn't make much of a difference. No one can be consistently psychologically effective in a radically different culture.

[Ken White]

who might be able to help us have no real incentive to do so and several incentives to avoid helping us. Being the big kid on the block has its disadvantages -- nobody thinks you need help and most think you're a little too big for comfort.

I don't think most nations wish us harm but I do believe most have a vested interest, no matter how minor, in seeing us stub our toes. They may not throw a banana peel in front of us but they also won't waste effort telling us it's there or trying to pick it up.

Goes with the territory...

[marct]

I don't think most nations wish us harm but I do believe most have a vested interest, no matter how minor, in seeing us stub our toes. They may not throw a banana peel in front of us but they also won't waste effort telling us it's there or trying to pick it up.

Got to agree with that. Partly, I suspect, it's just self interest - "if the US fraks up then we'll do better and get better access to the resources" type thing. Another part, I suspect, is just sheer frustration of the "we've told them time and time again and they don't listen" type.

Goes with the territory...

Yup, it does .

[Ken White]

...Another part, I suspect, is just sheer frustration of the "we've told them time and time again and they don't listen" type.

and the fascinating thing is 'they' don't realize that we refuse to listen because we can see their track record in most spheres is not only no better than ours but in many cases is not nearly as good...

[marct]

and the fascinating thing is 'they' don't realize that we refuse to listen because we can see their track record in most spheres is not only no better than ours but in many cases is not nearly as good...

we could spill a lot of electrons debating that without ever coming to a consensus . And, at any rate, in a lot of cases the specifics don't matter - it's a case of "are you treating us as allies or clients?" Constantly disregarding advice, even if it is bad (), has a tendency for people to think that the country disregarding the advice is a) rrogant, and b) feels entitled to command other countries. Again, it's a case of diplomatic perception rather than any reality - after all, when did the French last win a counter-insurgency? The Albigensians?

[Ken White]

we could spill a lot of electrons debating that without ever coming to a consensus . And, at any rate, in a lot of cases the specifics don't matter - it's a case of "are you treating us as allies or clients?" Constantly disregarding advice, even if it is bad (), has a tendency for people to think that the country disregarding the advice is a) rrogant, and b) feels entitled to command other countries. Again, it's a case of diplomatic perception rather than any reality - after all, when did the French last win a counter-insurgency? The Albigensians?

On the former, I take no position on it one way or the other, I'm merely repeating the most common US complaint on the issue I've heard over the years. I suspect there's some merit in it. We certainly have spent (as did the USSR) a great deal of time in the last fifty plus years fretting over arbitrary lines drawn on maps by Spain, italy, France and the UK (among other things)...

On the latter true -- and we're certainly entirely too guilty of arrogance. Based on watching a lot of people in a lot of places over more years than I care to recall, I think that, too, goes with the territory...

[bluegreencody]

IMO, wouldn't make much of a difference. No one can be consistently psychologically effective in a radically different culture.

Especially with the history of colonization in the region, the history of racism/slavery in Western countries, and the nature of today's globalized liberal market economy...

[Ron Humphrey]

Especially with the history of colonization in the region, the history of racism/slavery in Western countries, and the nature of today's globalized liberal market economy...

are a little slow. Could you elaborate on what exactly that means

[bluegreencody]

are a little slow. Could you elaborate on what exactly that means

and I haven't observed these things as being a concern to this posting yet. Maybe these things are so obvious they don't need to be mentioned. It just seems to me that any conversation about how allies (or clients) see the U.S. needs to consider these issues... it is more helpful than just saying that we are arrogant, because it gives context to the situation. I don't think people around the world care if we brag, if we are arrogant, about going to the moon first, or even Mars (I don't know about Venus). The perception of arrogance wasn't created in a vacuum and I don't think it is a monolithic perception of the entire U.S. society.

[bluegreencody]

are a little slow. Could you elaborate on what exactly that means

Frantz Fanon's "Wretched of the Earth" is a perfect example of what I am talking about. However people feel about his evolutionary theory of violence, I don't think anybody can disagree that it is a powerful example of, what I will call, an insurgent perspective that integrates a particular anti-colonial, non-white view of history.
BTW, is this suggested or required reading in military training/schools?

[SteveMetz]

Frantz Fanon's "Wretched of the Earth" is a perfect example of what I am talking about. However people feel about his evolutionary theory of violence, I don't think anybody can disagree that it is a powerful example of, what I will call, an insurgent perspective that integrates a particular anti-colonial, non-white view of history.
BTW, is this suggested or required reading in military training/schools?

I've been known to quote him. But to put that in context, I just Googled my name "and idiot" and got 5,260 hits (many dealing with an email I wrote to an old Cuban saying that I didn't put Castro near the top of the security threats faced by the United States).

[Ranger94]

IMO, wouldn't make much of a difference. No one can be consistently psychologically effective in a radically different culture.

I am not following the logic in this one. Wouldn't this statement have to be true for AQ working against the West?

[marct]

Hi Ranger,

I am not following the logic in this one. Wouldn't this statement have to be true for AQ working against the West?

Not really, it depends upon what specific cultural elements they are aiming at. For example, the are certain universals that anyone can use - children and violence against them being the simplest one to see. Fairly standard propaganda aimed at showing how the opponent attacks and kills children will pretty much work all of the time.

With regards to the West, there is a meme complex that can best be described as self-righteous, self-(i.e. West)hating and, most importantly, self-blaming which offers "salvation" through (cultural)self-immolation. While this is often referred to as "left wing", that's actually incorrect; it actually comes out of a rather psychotic other-worldly orientation (the same one that gave us Savonarola, the Stylites and the fraticelli). All AQ has to do is aim at this particular meme complex and its messages will be picked up and transmuted by the current carriers of that complex.

[SteveMetz]

I am not following the logic in this one. Wouldn't this statement have to be true for AQ working against the West?

Sure, but what makes you think AQ's IO have been that effective in the West? I mean, if you look at their strategic psychological aims vis a vis the West, how many have they attained?

[marct]

Sure, but what makes you think AQ's IO have been that effective in the West? I mean, if you look at their strategic psychological aims vis a vis the West, how many have they attained?

Withdrawl of Spain from the MNF
Decrease in UK troops in Iraq
Increase in global price of oil
Election of a Democrat congress (2006)
......

[tequila]

How are any of those things attributable to AQ's IO campaign?

Bush's win in 2004 is also attributable, given this episode:

At the five o'clock meeting, once various reports on latest threats were delivered, John McLaughlin opened the issue with the consensus view: "Bin Laden certainly did a nice favor today for the President."

Around the table, there were nods....Jami Miscik talked about how bin Laden — being challenged by Zarqawi's rise — clearly understood how his primacy as al Qaeda's leader was supported by the continuation of his eye-to-eye struggle with Bush. "Certainly," she offered, "he would want Bush to keep doing what he's doing for a few more years."

[marct]

How are any of those things attributable to AQ's IO campaign?

Withdrawl of Spain from the MNF

Distributed propaganda leading to a call for global jihad appears to have been, at least in part, a major source of the Madrid bombings which caused the change in the Spanish government leading to a withdrawl of Spanish troops once the new government took power.

Decrease in UK troops in Iraq

The London bombings and other activity has been spurred on by irhabi IO ops to the point where the always volatile British public is now extremely concerned with the possibility of aggravating the international Muslim community even more. This, along with Blair's resignation, has led to an increase in overall security in schools which, in turn, is increasing general levels of frustration with the government. Troop decreases in Iraq came about as a result of the change in government and efforts by the current PM to ameliorate the image of the UK as Bush's "lapdog".

Increase in global price of oil

Basically, take a look at how their IO campaign has raised fears globally as well as their destabilization efforts in a number of countries.

Election of a Democrat congress (2006)

Ask GEN Pelosi .

None of these are the direct result of AQ IO campaigns, but the IO campaigns set the stage for their interpretation and, in the case of irhabi attacks in Spain and Britain, were instrumental in making them happen.

[tequila]

Distributed propaganda leading to a call for global jihad appears to have been, at least in part, a major source of the Madrid bombings which caused the change in the Spanish government leading to a withdrawl of Spanish troops once the new government took power.

That and the UK bombings only works if you accept Sageman's thesis of open-source jihad. It runs up on the shoals of certain facts about the bombers, for instance that many of them were hardcore jihadis from before 9/11 with dedicated al-Qaeda links - i.e. they were not principally inspired by IO efforts.

Troop decreases in Iraq came about as a result of the change in government and efforts by the current PM to ameliorate the image of the UK as Bush's "lapdog".

Ignoring the fact that troop decreases were on the agenda before and would have occurred if Blair had continued in office, and was a function more of the rabid unpopularity of the war in Iraq than of any terrorist attack. The change in government was again due to intra-Labour Party politics and Iraq, not any AQ propaganda effort or some sort of bizarre attempt to curry Islamist sympathies.

Basically, take a look at how their IO campaign has raised fears globally as well as their destabilization efforts in a number of countries.

This is so generalized an argument as to be useless. How has their IO campaign "raised fears" in a way that led to a sustained price rise in oil? In what way has their IO campaign destabilized a major oil producing country? How much "risk premium" is built in specifically due to AQ's IO campaign, and how much has this affected world oil prices vs. things like a world-historical mass industrialization event such as has taken place in China over the past 15 years?

[SteveMetz]

Withdrawl of Spain from the MNF
Decrease in UK troops in Iraq
Increase in global price of oil
Election of a Democrat congress (2006)
......

And how are those attributable to AQ INFORMATION operations (unless you define IO so broadly as to include everything one says and does)?

Plus, the last three of your four don't have squat to do with AQ.

[bluegreencody]

However everyone understands each others' precise points, the common theme I understand from these posts is that everyone is talking about the varying degrees of intersection between different communities and their interests. This is best seen in the discussion of the '04 and '06 political campaigns converging with A.Q's interests. More subtly, an example is mentioned of intra-Labor party conflict and anti-war efforts being compatible with A.Q's interests. Soon, depending what happens, we will be talking about how a Republican presidential victory works in A.Q's interests or how a Democratic presidential victory does. I betcha A.Q. will be, and then they will adjust and adapt to the changing situation, in both strategy and tactics.
It seems important right now to say that Fanon's "Wretched of the Earth" is best understood after a thorough saturation with the work of Du Bois and MLK Jr, and with Waylon Jennings playing in the background. I have found that this combination of variables produces a strange sense of sympathy/empathy within myself. This uncomfortable feeling directly leads me to ask whether A.Q. is anti-Indian... if OBL hates America, how does he feel about Native Americans? Blacks? High school drop-outs in Idaho and lobstermen in Maine? How about Hamas? Hizbollah? But, we are not allowed to ask these questions because it is "us versus them".

With regards to the West, there is a meme complex that can best be described as self-righteous, self-(i.e. West)hating and, most importantly, self-blaming which offers "salvation" through (cultural)self-immolation. While this is often referred to as "left wing", that's actually incorrect; it actually comes out of a rather psychotic other-worldly orientation (the same one that gave us Savonarola, the Stylites and the fraticelli). All AQ has to do is aim at this particular meme complex and its messages will be picked up and transmuted by the current carriers of that complex.

While I am not a group psychologist, this particular meme complex seems to apply to an equal amount of groups on the "right wing" as on the "left wing", if not more. It also implies, as other previous postings have, that the "West" is something tangible, something an individual can disavow. OBL feels the same way. Personally, I don't buy it.

"Insurgents have put together hundreds of propaganda videos ranting about how oh-so-terrible the American troops in Iraq are. But this is the first flick I've seen that directly and exclusively targets the private military contractors like Blackwater that have become a hallmark of the Iraq occupation...."
Danger Room

Among other motives, I think this video is an attempt by A.Q. to co-opt/converge their interests to the interests of different communities. I don't think they care who picks it up, because what they need is action. This topic (violence perpetrated on Blackwater) allows for a larger potential receptive audience the world-over, including in the U.S. (watch out when the internet truly hits Africa, or will it be when Africa hits the internet?).
I would like to see a group continually dedicated to determining a retrospective U.S. policy of 2001. A perpetual hypothetical restart, with history as a key weapon. Sorta like playing chess backwards, or reverse-engineering. They would address the problem of stopping A.Q's co-option of the world and increasing U.S. co-operation. They would address the politically problematic questions of the intersectionality of interests between A.Q. and the U.S. Something has to be done about recruitment motivations to A.Q.