The US & others working with Pakistan

[davidbfpo]

Not a headline I expected to see, which starts with:

Every foreseeable ending to the Afghan war today—continued conflict with the Taliban, restoration of Taliban control in the southern and eastern provinces, or a nationwide civil war—portends nothing but serious perils for Islamabad. But judging from Pakistan’s behavior, it appears as if this fact has eluded the generals in Rawalpindi.

Link:http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/06...ghanistan/c6sn

Wishful thinking maybe, time will tell - if we are watching.

[davidbfpo]

A rare article on:

China is shelling out massive amounts of money and manpower to improve Pakistan's Karakoram Highway, the highest motorway in the world. The supposed gift to its neighbor is a perfect example of China's economic strategy of taking on short-term expenses for the sake of long-term benefits.

Some stunning photos and a reminder that nature can still dominate, oddly missing from the text:

Because the landslide created the lake, travelers and cargo must now transfer to boats to cross the 22 kilometers of the Karakoram Highway now underwater.

Link:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-844282.html

[Ray]

The KKH is of strategic interest for China, and to some extent, of Pakistan.

Money will be of no concern to China to get the road operational at all costs.

[carl]

I suspect that that road is not commercially viable. The maintenance costs will be very high. Just snow removal in the winter will be a huge task and I imagine that keeping gas stations open at 4700 metres elevation is not at all easy. The photos depict very steep almost vertical slopes bordering the road in places. Rock fall mitigation in those areas is a never ending task involving steel nets, blasting, rock removal and still the rocks fall unpredictably and close the road and even on occasion crush cars. That is how it is in Colorado with I-70. In fact when the Interstate highway system was built it was advised that I-70 not follow the route it does and be constructed as it is because the maintenance costs would be so high. I imagine the length of road requiring rock fall mitigation on that road is far longer than along I-70 in Colorado. A road that high might require special trucks too. The total transport expense must be something.

This is a military supply road. But given the terrain and the expense and the vulnerability of all the bridges I wonder if it is even viable for that purpose.

Red China will pick up the maintenance expenses on the Pakistan part of the road but if they ever lose interest does Pakistan have the resources to maintain this thing?

David, the text did mention the lake and landslide but it was at the very bottom of the article.

[Ray]

THE LAST WALTZ

The conclusion: Instability in Afghanistan and some parts of Pakistan is essential to the calculus of checkmating Pakistan’s rise as a nuclear power. Bad governance is a catalyst to instability.

The way this environment shapes coincides with the US intention of withdrawing from Afghanistan. This could be a token gesture as mixed signals emanating from Washington and gunboat diplomacy suggest otherwise. Nowhere do US statements indicate an end to hostilities and transition to peace. To ensure that this withdrawal takes place quickly, Pakistan has to rethink and reframe its Afghan Policy and create a pause to set its house in order. Delay implies more problems.

http://www.opinion-maker.org/2012/07/the-last-waltz/

[Dayuhan]

I suspect that that road is not commercially viable. The maintenance costs will be very high. Just snow removal in the winter will be a huge task and I imagine that keeping gas stations open at 4700 metres elevation is not at all easy. The photos depict very steep almost vertical slopes bordering the road in places. Rock fall mitigation in those areas is a never ending task involving steel nets, blasting, rock removal and still the rocks fall unpredictably and close the road and even on occasion crush cars. That is how it is in Colorado with I-70. In fact when the Interstate highway system was built it was advised that I-70 not follow the route it does and be constructed as it is because the maintenance costs would be so high. I imagine the length of road requiring rock fall mitigation on that road is far longer than along I-70 in Colorado. A road that high might require special trucks too. The total transport expense must be something.

This is a military supply road. But given the terrain and the expense and the vulnerability of all the bridges I wonder if it is even viable for that purpose.

Red China will pick up the maintenance expenses on the Pakistan part of the road but if they ever lose interest does Pakistan have the resources to maintain this thing?

David, the text did mention the lake and landslide but it was at the very bottom of the article.

I have to wonder about it as well. The idea that Chinese goods will be trucked over the highway and exported through Karachi seems totally incompatible with reality. Most Chinese manufacturing is on the east coast and it's far cheaper and easier to simply load goods onto container ships and send them where you want them to go. There are good reasons why the old "silk road" routes fell into disuse, modern maritime transport is a lot cheaper, easier, more efficient. Just imagine the number of truckloads of goods required to fill one container ship, and the logistics of moving them from China's industrial east to Karachi...

I can see some goods destined purely for Pakistan using the route, but re-export through Karachi doesn't sound very practical.

Even as a military supply route there would be real limitations. Hypothetically, a prospective Chinese base at Gwadar or elsewhere could be supplied via this route without having to navigate waters that might be controlled by an enemy. That same enemy, though, would easily be able to close the KKH via sabotage or an air strike. Given the geography and isolation and the already demonstrated ability of a single landslide in the right place to force major rerouting and extended closure, it seems a very vulnerable route to be relying on in any strategic scenario.

Certainly the route is potentially useful to China, enough so to make it economically justifiable, but it's probably an exaggeration to call it a strategic game-changer.

PS: What people often fail to realize about these projects is that they form an effective way of moving money from the Chinese exchequer to Chinese companies, and often to favored individuals as well. The government pays Chinese construction companies to do the work. Subcontractors are involved. Lots of payments made, lots of convenient opportunities for some of that $400 million to wander away. If a project doesn't seem to make economic sense (not saying this one doesn't, but on a general level) and money still flies into it, there's a good chance that the project is largely intended to get money moving around so that some of it can be diverted. Corruption is very widespread in China and the amounts involved are large.

[davidbfpo]

I noted the WaPo report on cross-border artillery shelling by Pakistan of parts of Eastern Afghanistan, which I assume are a bit more than bickering and probably are in reprisal for Afghan incursions:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...B4W_story.html

Within the report is this more significant development:

Pakistan recently decided to revoke refugee status for nearly 3 million Afghans, meaning they will be deported by year’s end.

Now I am unconvinced Pakistan will deport 3m people, especially as many now live far from Afghanistan, IIRC the refugee camps have closed and Afghans, ironically, dominate the heavy overland transport industry. This could change if a hostile popular attitude appears, unlikely IMO and rather conflicts with the tradition of hospitality. Let alone the response of the more Ummah friendly political parties.

[Ray]

KKH is basically aimed, as I see it, is to ensure that Chinese imports ex Africa and Middle East, especially oil, has an uninterrupted route to China off Gwadar in case Malacca Straits is closed for any reason.

That is why they have the other route through Myanmar (rail and road) and are building extensive railway routes to CAR, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and so on so that strategic imports have a multiple entry point to China.

[davidbfpo]

I have opened this new thread on Pakistan's strategic position after the arrival today of two expert commentaries on the developing relationship between India and Saudi Arabia. With a passing reference to China, whose relationship with Pakistan has a few troubles.

There is an existing, long running thread 'The US & others working with Pakistan' and quite simply 'working with' is not what is happening. Plus some of the events involved have appeared in the thread 'Mumbai Attacks and their impact'.

Stephen Tankel has a FP Blog article 'Pakistan's sticky wicket: The India-Saudi link':http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts...dia_saudi_link

Which ends with:

Finally, this event should cause concern in Islamabad and Rawalpindi about the degree to which continued tolerance of groups like Lashkar is creating unease among even its closest allies. China too has evinced concern - rarely and diplomatically, but nevertheless publicly - about the potential for Pakistan-based militants to threaten its own internal security. Saudi Arabia has now gone a significant step further. Neither country is about to abandon Pakistan, but nor is their commitment to Pakistan as absolute as some of its leaders might publicly claim or privately wish to believe.

The Jamestown Foundation has a short article 'A Challenge for Pakistan: Saudi Arabia’s New Counterterrorism Cooperation with India':http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_...41c7acbda9b477

This looks more closely at the Indian aspects.

Still missing on my "radar" is a good article on what exactly is the Pakistan-Saudi relationship, we know many of the linkages, but not how they weigh in the relationship. Any suggestions would be welcome.

I don't think Pakistan can lose friends such as Saudi Arabia or the Chinese and expect this is fully appreciated, especially as relations with the generous USA are prone to tension and in the near future could end.

[omarali50]

Since pakistan is probably willing to go to almost any extent (short of killing "good jihadis"...THAT we cannot do..cannot more than will-not) we should be able to hold on to these two allies. For example, we have not yet given China all of the Northern areas and probably havent physically sold a working bomb to Saudia. But if push comes to shove, we could do either. In short, we still have some things to sell before we hit rock bottom.
As the guy who jumped out of a plane without a parachute famously said at the halfway mark: "still doing OK"..

[carl]

PS: What people often fail to realize about these projects is that they form an effective way of moving money from the Chinese exchequer to Chinese companies, and often to favored individuals as well. The government pays Chinese construction companies to do the work. Subcontractors are involved. Lots of payments made, lots of convenient opportunities for some of that $400 million to wander away. If a project doesn't seem to make economic sense (not saying this one doesn't, but on a general level) and money still flies into it, there's a good chance that the project is largely intended to get money moving around so that some of it can be diverted. Corruption is very widespread in China and the amounts involved are large.

Good point.

[carl]

This is a NYT article from the day before yesterday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/wo...it_th_20120731

It is filled with quotes of learned people cautioning that we really don't know if the Haqqanis and the ISI are in bed together and maybe the one is using the other more than it it being used and there are no good options blah blah blah.

I am reading Rashid's Descent into Chaos again (listening on tape) and it struck me when I read the NYT article that nothing at all has changed in the last 11 years. Nothing! There is even something in there about how the new ISI head goon is going to do some "relationship building" in DC with among others, Mr. Petraeus. They will probably get along really well, being fellow professional soldiers and all.

I am forever amazed that we can be had over and over and over again.

[Dayuhan]

KKH is basically aimed, as I see it, is to ensure that Chinese imports ex Africa and Middle East, especially oil, has an uninterrupted route to China off Gwadar in case Malacca Straits is closed for any reason.

That is why they have the other route through Myanmar (rail and road) and are building extensive railway routes to CAR, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and so on so that strategic imports have a multiple entry point to China.

How much oil or other bulk commodities could you reasonably expect to move across the KKH?

[carl]

How much oil or other bulk commodities could you reasonably expect to move across the KKH?

With a pipeline you probably could do a lot. I don't know if there is one or plans for one to follow the road. A properly run tanker truck op could probably do more than we might expect. They are bringing oil down from North Dakota right now by truck because the pipelines extant can't handle things and they wouldn't be doing that unless it paid. Perhaps studying how much the Burma and Ledo Roads were able to handle in WWII would give some idea of what could be done after making allowances for new tech and the winter wx.

[davidbfpo]

Originally Posted by Dayuhan:

How much oil or other bulk commodities could you reasonably expect to move across the KKH?

Posted by Carl:

Perhaps studying how much the Burma and Ledo Roads were able to handle in WWII would give some idea of what could be done after making allowances for new tech and the winter wx.

There is more recent example of overland bulk transport being used, although I have no details to hand.

Following the Declaration of Rhodesian Independence (UDI), with sanctions being imposed shortly afterwards, the Rhodesians stopped supplies of oil to Zambia via their railways and for a short time supplies were ferried in by plane. Overland road replaced this after a time and much later the Tan-Zam railway. IIRC only a small amount was moved and Zambia was forced to make concessions to get overland, rail-borne supplies re-instated.

Back to the KKH. Would the economics of moving oil overland be countered by building oil-fired power generation in Pakistan, using transmission lines parallel to the KKH?

[Ray]

The oil pipeline will run along the KKH alignment.

It will be cost effective compared to movement by road/ train.

They are also planning a rail link!

[Ray]

How much oil or other bulk commodities could you reasonably expect to move across the KKH?

If one is to believe the Chinese and the Pakistanis - a lot!

India moves a lot through equally difficult terrain to Ladhak and Siachen!

You must plan a trip to realise what China and Pakistan aims to do.

[Dayuhan]

Following the Declaration of Rhodesian Independence (UDI), with sanctions being imposed shortly afterwards, the Rhodesians stopped supplies of oil to Zambia via their railways and for a short time supplies were ferried in by plane. Overland road replaced this after a time and much later the Tan-Zam railway. IIRC only a small amount was moved and Zambia was forced to make concessions to get overland, rail-borne supplies re-instated.

Back to the KKH. Would the economics of moving oil overland be countered by building oil-fired power generation in Pakistan, using transmission lines parallel to the KKH?

Again you'd have to look at the comparative scale. China consumes 10mbpd of oil a day, most of it imported, and even a very large pipeline would supply only a small fraction of daily consumption.

Similarly, even a rail and highway to port link via the KKH that was in use 24/7/365 would carry only a tiny fraction of China's merchandise exports. Again, you have to look at infrastructure capacity relative to the overall scale of Chinese imports and exports, which are extremely large. Compare the size and capacity of Gwadar port to, say Shanghai, Shenzhen, or Quingdao and you get an idea of the scale. The 2nd stage of development at Gwadar is supposed to expand it to 12 berths. China's coastal ports have 650 berths for ships 10k tons and above, over 2500 in all.

I don't think it makes sense to look at any single transport link as a critical strategic element that China would rely on if, say, the SE Asian transit route through Indonesia and the Philippines (VLCCs and ULCCs don't use the Malacca Strait, not deep enough) were closed. It would be more accurate, I suspect, to say the Chinese are trying to diversify their access routes by developing as many alternatives as possible. In sum those alternatives are significant, though no single one of them would really be strategically vital. In energy terms, of course, the most significant would be the oil pipelines to Kazakhstan and to Siberia.

I don't really buy the contention that a Gwadar-KKH-China pipeline would reduce the risk of China's oil supply being cut off in the event of conflict with the US, as the port, shipments bound for the port, and the pipeline itself would remain vulnerable. In the event of a purely regional war (say with Vietnam or other SE Asian countries) it could be significant, but if the US (or for that matter India) were determined to cut off China's energy supply, they could still do it. The Kazakhstan and Siberian routes would be much more difficult to interdict.

[Ray]

China has acknowledged that Gwadar’s strategic value is no less than that of the Karakoram Highway, which helped cement the China-Pakistan relationship. Beijing is also interested in turning it into an energy-transport hub by building an oil pipeline from Gwadar into China's Xinjiang region. The planned pipeline will carry crude oil sourced from Arab and African states. Such transport by pipeline will cut freight costs and also help insulate the Chinese imports from interdiction by hostile naval forces in case of any major war.

http://hisamullahbeg.blogspot.in/201...t-and-kkh.html

KARAKORAM OIL PIPELINE
GAWADUR TO KHUNJRAAB PASS TO CHINA

PIPELINE CAPACITY : 12 MILLION TON/YEAR.
http://www.ssgc.com.pk/ssgc/media_ce.../karakorum.pdf

Any supply route will always be vulnerable.

[Ray]

Here is a link to the improving India Saudi relationship.

This would be an input that is of importance to Pakistan and so maybe relevant in context with this thread.

India and Saudi Arabia
http://intellibriefs.blogspot.in/201...di-arabia.html

It maybe recalled the the Saudis handed over Abu Jundal, a mastermind of the Mumbai Blast, who was in Saudi Arabia on a Pakistan passport. It is said that the ISI wanted the deportation stopped, but the Saudis went ahead and deported Abu Jundal.

Better ties with Saudi Arabia helped clinch Abu Jundal deal

For the last six months, Pakistan had been on a


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