The Russian economy (catch all)

[AmericanPride]

Waiting AP---have gone over all of your responses in the thread and I am not exactly sure what you would suggest doing if the author is correct that the Russian troops are already over the border.

My suggestion was and remains: negotiate. The coercive tools available to the U.S. are not sufficient to fully dislodge Russia from Ukraine. Nor is Ukraine the exclusive or primary security interest of the U.S. The only reason why policy discussions in recent weeks have drifted to talks about increasing U.S. security commitments to Europe is to signal to NATO's eastern European members that they won't be left in the lurch - it has nothing to do with actually restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity.

You not only advocate aggressively reversing Russia's gains, but also to disarm Russia entirely. Despite repeated questions from Dayuhan on how that could be achieved, you have been silent in answering how you would disarm a nuclear state, and do so without further threatening U.S. security interests in Europe and elsewhere. Russia gave us a black eye in Ukraine - I can acknowledge that without recommending that we rush to war against Moscow. Now is the time to assess how Russia's new gains can be marginalized or minimized, since reversing them is out of reach, a war between the U.S. and Russia will do no one any good (including the Ukrainians).

Frankly, your ideas are poorly thought-out and would only lead to further erosions in U.S. security.

[OUTLAW 09]

My suggestion was and remains: negotiate. The coercive tools available to the U.S. are not sufficient to fully dislodge Russia from Ukraine. Nor is Ukraine the exclusive or primary security interest of the U.S. The only reason why policy discussions in recent weeks have drifted to talks about increasing U.S. security commitments to Europe is to signal to NATO's eastern European members that they won't be left in the lurch - it has nothing to do with actually restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity.

You not only advocate aggressively reversing Russia's gains, but also to disarm Russia entirely. Despite repeated questions from Dayuhan on how that could be achieved, you have been silent in answering how you would disarm a nuclear state, and do so without further threatening U.S. security interests in Europe and elsewhere.

Frankly, your ideas are poorly thought-out and would only lead to further erosions in U.S. security.

AP--US security went down the drain in 2003 actually it went down the drain starting in Beirut in the 80s. Security went down the drain when the green flags of Hezbollah were walked into Lebanon, security went down the drain when all US military power was pulled out of Europe, security went down the drain when we decided soft power works over hard power. Security went down the drain when we expanded in AFG after 2001 , and security went down the drain when the political parties in Congress decided drinking tea was better than governing. Security went down the drain when banks blew up the property bubble and no one went to jail. Security went down the drain when the drug cartels were allowed to expand into the US when no one cared what they were doing down south but some political parties in the US were interested more in what the ATF was doing.

AP the list could go on and on and on....

AP---still awaiting your response to the FP article paragraph for paragraph---let's see how you respond to the reality in the field not in your comments.

It is reality that needs an answer.

By the way hope which you state often is and will never be a strategy. One can actually define negotiations as being a form of "hope".

By the way NEGOIATE for what? A return of the Crimea , a return to the former Soviet Union that Putin envisions, or a return to the Cold War or a return of Stalin or a return of the Czar-negotiate a return of Russian ethnic nationalism which is really a form of fascism--again negotiate for what AP?

Again AP negotiate for what?--not firing artillery and MRLs into the Ukraine, or negotiate for what not killing none Christians as defined by Russian Cossack mercenaries---again AP negotiate for what?

By the way --this goes to just how you read---have I ever here advocated for disarming Russia---what I have advocated is making sure they fully understand the red lines and that there is a price for attempting to rewrite Soviet history that was doomed by the poor Russian decision making of that period and a collapsed Soviet economy due to the low price of oil ---not by anything the West was alleged to have done.

Come on AP quote back to me where I advocated the disarming of Russia.

I keep asking you--why does the world need a Russia which is in reality a developing second world country that envisions itself as the third superpower?

[OUTLAW 09]

AP:http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...pe-359961.html

[OUTLAW 09]

AP---you cannot really believe this comment of yours do you?---you really did need to have resided and worked here in Europe since 1967--then maybe you might have a different take on Russia.

Originally Posted by AmericanPride:

Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia: dissolve NATO, a new Marshall Plan for countries of the former USSR, the most critical players of all: Russian citizens and companies. This could include reducing the existing visa barriers between Russia and the EU and, in the longer term, lessening the restrictions on working abroad..the West could radically shift the focus of its cooperation with Russia to the Pacific.

By the way AP you really do know that the EU has offered a number of times for Russia to associate with and later into the EU as a joint economic zone but Russia wanted a Eurasia concept to lock in the older SU countries---you do know the Russian response---nyet.

You do know that the Russian parliament has representatives in the EU PACE and yet they walked out over the Crimea when the EU confronted them on it---so how is anything similar to work in the future?

Come on AP you really do not believe what you wrote right?

[Dayuhan]

By the way --this goes to just how you read---have I ever here advocated for disarming Russia---what I have advocated is making sure they fully understand the red lines and that there is a price for attempting to rewrite Soviet history

I don't agree with AP on the negotiation side; I doubt that negotiation would achieve much without the deployment of significant carrots and sticks.

What I'm missing from you, despite your efforts to position yourself as an omniscient authority, is any hint of a practical policy suggestion. What, specifically, do you think the US and EU should do at this point? Surely your self appointed authority puts you in a position to make a suggestion, and if it doesn't, what good is it?

If you're talking of "red lines", what exactly should they be and what should be done if (when) they are tested? If we're talking of prices, what specific price do you suggest and how is that price to be imposed?

[OUTLAW 09]

I don't agree with AP on the negotiation side; I doubt that negotiation would achieve much without the deployment of significant carrots and sticks.

What I'm missing from you, despite your efforts to position yourself as an omniscient authority, is any hint of a practical policy suggestion. What, specifically, do you think the US and EU should do at this point? Surely your self appointed authority puts you in a position to make a suggestion, and if it doesn't, what good is it?

If you're talking of "red lines", what exactly should they be and what should be done if (when) they are tested? If we're talking of prices, what specific price do you suggest and how is that price to be imposed?

See Dayuhan--this is the problem--if you had been following my comments and those of JMA then you would have seen the red lines and the suggestions.

I am for one really waiting for the 90 day bank lines of credit to be halted and the halting of sales of stocks for all Russian oligarch companies as well as the halting of all Sovereign fund bonds as well as Russian company bonds sales.

Then the red line is seriously stated to Putin.

Only when he clearly sees the financial abyss will he pull back as he cannot regardless of how much propaganda he throws at the Russian population ---there are way to many of the middle class that sees , hears, and understands the west from their many trips/vacations and they fully understand the propaganda---Putin has totally established a dictatorship using "legal democratic" means and they are now afraid to say anything out of fear of landing in prison. Just listen to the voices of the young Russian generation that is here in Berlin in large numbers---anti Putin to a person--but then totally nationalist Russians in their love of their country. There is the disconnect.

Remember what drove them in 1994---the realization that there was another economic developmental/growth model out they and they knew they wanted a part of it. Yes the average yearly income of 7K has been risen to 14K but it has been on the credit pump from the west and there still is no real serious internal development that can sustain Russia when the raw resource turn down---then what? Remember Russia is still the same old Soviet style state capitalism just with "former communist" now "democratic" oligarchs.

Just look at the food sanctions ban--it did not really hurt the west---actually Europeans were startled by his remarks as they know it will hit the Russian consumer far harder---but Putin needs to drive his population backwards in order to survive the isolation that is now there---the problem is and he totally forgot--Russia is tied to the globalized world thus cannot drift back into economic isolation without truly damaging his own economy for the next 20 years.

Putin is struggling to get reelected nothing more nothing less and if it means crossing with little green men into the Ukraine in the end he will do it---the question is just how hard will the west push back on against a ethnic national imperialist bent on reestablishing the Russian Empire?

He has already crossed two serious red lines and that has been signaled to him a large number of times and yet he does not respond---and all AP wants to do is what----to negotiate?

So in the end if his economy totally tanks it is not the fault of the west which he so often blames for everything--- it is then his own fault---but right now he is in an "ain't my responsibility---it is yours" mindset.

[AmericanPride]

By the way NEGOIATE for what? A return of the Crimea , a return to the former Soviet Union that Putin envisions, or a return to the Cold War or a return of Stalin or a return of the Czar-negotiate a return of Russian ethnic nationalism which is really a form of fascism--again negotiate for what AP? Again AP negotiate for what?--not firing artillery and MRLs into the Ukraine, or negotiate for what not killing none Christians as defined by Russian Cossack mercenaries---again AP negotiate for what?

Negotiate for what? How about starting with identifying the official U.S. and Russian positions. Have you bothered to investigate what they are?

[Firn]

I think it is important to be honest when it comes to the (short-term) political outcome of sanctions and confess we don't know. The study cited by AP comes up with a 30% success rate, but if one considers that sanctions itself are a negative selection there remains the questions: What would have happened without the sanctions? A more favorable outcome, a worse one? For whom? What impact had it on other countries faced with potential sanctions.?

In addition to that even good studies suffer form the usual problems of a limited sample and huge differences between countries and considerable ones in the extent and type of sanctions. So it is important to be sceptical.

So far the political logic of sanctions against Russia seems to be:

a) Showing that all those words were not hollow
b) Impose rising costs for Russia to make it less likely that Putin 'escalates' further
c) Possibly also trying to make an international point with a + b

So far the Kremlin doesn't look like it backs off, but just has I have written after the Crimean annexations (without anticipating the invasion into the Donbass) this looks like a long game.


The economic consequences are much easier to predict, even if their precise outcome can't be know, especially since the sanction cycle is in full swing. At least Putin helps us to run a big real-world economic experiment which will pretty likely support other experiments in that direction.

[AmericanPride]

So far the political logic of sanctions against Russia seems to be:

a) Showing that all those words were not hollow
b) Impose rising costs for Russia to make it less likely that Putin 'escalates' further
c) Possibly also trying to make an international point with a + b

I think it's important to note the absence of reversing Russia's gains in Ukraine from your list. I don't think the ineffectiveness of sanctions in regards to reverse gains is lost on the Obama administration and I'm inclined to believe that the sanctions are an attempt at posturing vis-a-vis Russia for a better bargaining positioning down the road and to signal to U.S. allies (particularly Poland and the Baltic states) that the U.S. is committed to European security.

At some point, the escalation cycle will exhaust itself and both Washington and Moscow will be left staring at one another wondering what to do next. The only game-changer would be the prospect of the extermination of the separatists, which I think is highly likely to trigger further Russian escalation. Note that the Georgian conflict ended with a formal cease fire but many of the political and territorial issues remain unsolved and frozen for the time being. I suspect a similar situation to emerge in Ukraine - the exact boundaries of which are at this point unclear but at least include Russia keeping Crimea.

[OUTLAW 09]

Negotiate for what? How about starting with identifying the official U.S. and Russian positions. Have you bothered to investigate what they are?

AP===let's check out your comment here---starting six months before Crimea and counting all Interfax/RIA Russian FM comments and comments attributed to Putin and including his Duma speech---give me a number of the exact reasons Russia claims the rights to Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

If one is to negotiate than one must in theory know the reasons right AP that is the supposed cause of the crisis. In the Russian reason count---be sure to highlight exactly what international agreement, memorandum or treaty were being violated that contributed to the armed annexation of the Crimea and the sending of weapons and Russian mercenaries into the Ukraine.

With the shot down of MH17 we have currently 14 different versions running around the globe by the way---that is a bad example of where to start negotiations is it not AP?

Await your count and your highlighting.

[mirhond]

While I see cowardly appeasement rearing it's head there is a chance that you are now openly pushing Russian propaganda. Which is it?

American Pride, wellcome to SWJ Exclusive Club of KGB mouthpieces. I'll send you cookies, on occasion

prices have raised 45% just in the last two days regardless of how his propaganda spins it

Outright lie and complete BS, as usual. It takes few weeks perhaps, before retail prices start to rise.

[kaur]

One consumer visited shop with higher price range "Seventh continet" in Moscow and took some photos. After comparing the view with Putin's sanctions list, he did some cutting and painting and you can see the moscovites choices on the second pic.

http://www.the-village.ru/village/si...ka-vkusa-takoe

[mirhond]

One consumer visited shop with higher price range "Seventh continet" in Moscow and took some photos. After comparing the view with Putin's sanctions list, he did some cutting and painting and you can see the moscovites choices on the second pic.

http://www.the-village.ru/village/si...ka-vkusa-takoe

Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.

I like shortbread cookies. Or... do cookies choose me?

Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you

[kaur]

mirhond, my bad! Waiting for your pics

Nice reading about sanctioned food products in Russian. According this survey biggest winner will be Belarus.

http://ttolk.ru/?p=21312

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.




Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you

you still have not answered you own comments about those zealous Christian Cossacks that were badly beaten into the ground and have been retreating into Donetsk ---so again where did they take the 36 bodies comrade as they seemed to not make Donetsk?.

you still think those zealous Christian Cossacks are great fighters---well it looks like the Ukrainian National Guard seems to have defeated that Russian myth of your did they not comrade?

even the FSB officer Girkin was complaining on his cell phone about their fighting abilities---with quality mercenaries like that no wonder they are losing against a ragtag Ukrainian Army----- well so much for the glorious Russian Army training.

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.

Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you

just why is it that the Russian government is passing a law forbidding stores from overcharging for food products---seems like your Putin is getting ready for a massive shortage---there was a by the way a picture posted from your own Russian bloggers asking what is the new Russian food diet

1. bread
2. vodka
3. potatoes

well so much for punishing those mean anti Russian western consumers and now Putin is assisting European consumers in lowering their own cost of living for the next year or so with cheap farm/fruit/vegetable products.

that comrade mirhond was a great sanctions example--- is that all the Russia "superpower" is capable of---come on man fruit and vegetables really?

agree with kaur---where are the photos---oh forgot you never answer anything anyway comrade

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, gawd, you read Russian - how do you managed to mistook "Azbuka vkusa"(highest prices in Moscow, vanity shop for nouveau riche) for "Seven continent"(middle-to-high prices)?
Next time I'll go to the nearest retail shop for lower classes and bring some photos of shelves full of Russian and unsanctioned foodstuff with a small token of grub wich fall into sanctions.




Yeah, Russian reversal - cookies like you

Comrade mirhond the sixth one of you all---thanks for confirming both you and your IP address are in fact out of Russia.

[JMA]

American Pride, wellcome to SWJ Exclusive Club of KGB mouthpieces. I'll send you cookies, on occasion

Look up 'Antonio Negri' and see where he is coming from. Maybe the difference is that you are doing it for the money and he for ideological reasons... but he seems to have missed that communism collapsed in Russia some time ago. Mirhond, you don't believe in the Marxist crap do you?

[Dayuhan]

See Dayuhan--this is the problem--if you had been following my comments and those of JMA then you would have seen the red lines and the suggestions.

I do read most of the posts, though given the sheer volume and occasional incoherence it's always possible to miss something. I've seen little or nothing that indicates a specific suggestion. From JMA the closest I saw was a presumably facetious recommendation that the Ukraine be provided with nuclear weapons.

I am for one really waiting for the 90 day bank lines of credit to be halted and the halting of sales of stocks for all Russian oligarch companies as well as the halting of all Sovereign fund bonds as well as Russian company bonds sales.

I've said from the start that the response should be multilateral, economic, and graduated, so we're not so far off being on the same page there. I try not to suggest specific economic sanctions, because I don't have the access to detailed data or the number crunching expertise to determine the cost/benefit relations of specific possibilities. If it were up to me I'd have had a team of experts on the Russian economy serving up lists of possibilities with projected impacts for each. I assume that this has been done.

Then the red line is seriously stated to Putin.

Which specific red line do you mean?

Only when he clearly sees the financial abyss will he pull back as he cannot regardless of how much propaganda he throws at the Russian population ---there are way to many of the middle class that sees , hears, and understands the west from their many trips/vacations and they fully understand the propaganda---Putin has totally established a dictatorship using "legal democratic" means and they are now afraid to say anything out of fear of landing in prison. Just listen to the voices of the young Russian generation that is here in Berlin in large numbers---anti Putin to a person--but then totally nationalist Russians in their love of their country. There is the disconnect.

Remember what drove them in 1994---the realization that there was another economic developmental/growth model out they and they knew they wanted a part of it. Yes the average yearly income of 7K has been risen to 14K but it has been on the credit pump from the west and there still is no real serious internal development that can sustain Russia when the raw resource turn down---then what? Remember Russia is still the same old Soviet style state capitalism just with "former communist" now "democratic" oligarchs.

Just look at the food sanctions ban--it did not really hurt the west---actually Europeans were startled by his remarks as they know it will hit the Russian consumer far harder---but Putin needs to drive his population backwards in order to survive the isolation that is now there---the problem is and he totally forgot--Russia is tied to the globalized world thus cannot drift back into economic isolation without truly damaging his own economy for the next 20 years.

Putin is struggling to get reelected nothing more nothing less and if it means crossing with little green men into the Ukraine in the end he will do it---the question is just how hard will the west push back on against a ethnic national imperialist bent on reestablishing the Russian Empire?

I find it interesting that you say "Putin has totally established a dictatorship" and a few paragraphs later "Putin is struggling to get reelected". That seems to be a bit of a disconnect; can you explain?

I agree that Putin has backed himself into a corner: his proxies are failing despite very overt support, and now all his options are bad. This is a common problem in proxy war, as the US well knows: if your proxies can't do the job you're left without good options.

The question now is how to get him to take the bad option we prefer: not invading. Economic threats are part of that. So is undercutting the pretext: the last thing we need right now is a bunch of dead ethnic Russian civilians.

He has already crossed two serious red lines and that has been signaled to him a large number of times and yet he does not respond---and all AP wants to do is what----to negotiate?

AP will have to respond to that; as I said before I don't see much point in negotiating without a solid supply of carrots and sticks at hand. The question is what the most effective carrots and sticks would be, and how and when they should be deployed.

[AmericanPride]

American Pride, wellcome to SWJ Exclusive Club of KGB mouthpieces. I'll send you cookies, on occasion

I like shortbread cookies. Or... do cookies choose me?

Georgia is not the Ukraine and Russia knows that---why ----to cross over would provoke far more serious sanctions on their gas industry.

Then why in other posts do you hype a threat of imminent Russian invasion?

By the way AP did you notice that absolutely no ongoing negotiations on any topic has gone anywhere? Wonder why?

Not in public, at least. At some point, Washington and Moscow (and the EU) will sort out the details at the negotiating table. It's not a matter of "if" but of "when" and under what conditions. I'm not against the U.S. increasing it's leverage prior to negotiations through diplomatic and economic maneuvering - that's par for the course. Anyway, the long view is a political settlement. There will not be a perpetual conflict in Ukraine (or with Russia).

Look up 'Antonio Negri' and see where he is coming from.

Negri's work is fundamentally a critique of neoliberal capitalism - I'm not a neo-liberal myself - but his ideology departs from a nationally-centered position. Frankly - my concern is chiefly with American interests; not with Ukrainian, or Russian, or South African. Internationalism is a strategy not an end-state.