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Old 06-22-2015   #1
Blissful
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Default Iraq governance long term

Assuming Iraq does not end up as three states, Kurdistan, Islamic Caliphate and The Nub of Iraq, what would a future government look like? If the Shia are a minority, won't it become a Sunni state, just due to demographics? Eventually? I assume we could have legitimate business and diplomatic dealings with the Kurds regardless of their autonomy, but would a Sunni Iraq become another Iran? Basically closed off from the global business world?
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Old 06-22-2015   #2
jcustis
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Shi'a Arabs would not be a minority in any Iraq that had not broken down into three autonomous regions.



I consider the Kurdish areas as already fairly autonomous.
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Old 06-22-2015   #3
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Ok. I thought for some reason that the Shia were in the minority. So still a Shia government, if the state remains intact. What I'm driving at is how would there be any way of not having a heavy Sunni presence, if not the Prime Minister, then at least some representation throughout the government. Won't we have to deal with them? How would that work, assuming ISIS's continued presence in the region. I don't see them just going away. In other words, in say 10 years, ISIS is part of the acknowledged government of Iraq.
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Old 07-21-2015   #4
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Yes, the reality of Sunni populations in Iraq has to be reconciled with in any future incarnation of the Iraqi state.
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Old 07-22-2015   #5
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Sunnis are anywhere from 20-30% of Iraq. The government is set up based upon ethnosectarian quotas so Sunnis are represented throughout the government. They get the speaker of parliament, one vice president, one deputy premier and various ministries. This has been true since the 1st post invasion government formed in 2005. The Shia will never except IS as a legitimate entity nor include it in the government since a main part of the Islamic State's ideology is the destruction of Shiites which they see as apostates.
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