The Islamic Insurgents (catch all)

[Bill Moore]

http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking...ry_662225.html

'I have witnessed that there has been a radicalisation movement in this nation with religious and ideological motives,' Yudhoyono said in a speech at a national development conference in Jakarta. 'If we continue to let this happen, it will threaten the character of our nation and our people.'

Yudhoyono has allied himself with conservative Muslims in the government and has rarely spoken out against extremist violence, which often goes unpunished.

But on Thursday he said Islamic extremists, who make up a small but very vocal section of Indonesia's 200 million Muslims, were encouraging young Indonesians to 'love violence' and reject the law of the diverse country

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/home/...469669#Scene_1

Radicalism Losing Ground in Indonesia but Not in Universities: Survey

Support for radicals and radicalism is falling among Indonesians, a survey of 4,840 people has found. The survey by Lazuardi Birru, a Jakarta-based peace group, used a one-to-100 point scoring scale based on answers to a questionnaire, with one being most moderate and 100 being most radical. It measures respondents’ support for radicals as well as their own radical tendencies.

Zuhairi Misrawi, chairman of the Moderate Muslim Society, said support for radicalism may be declining, but the fact is that the number of incidents has been rising, partly because punishments for those who are caught are so weak.

“These non-deterrent punishments have boosted the confidence of the radicals,” Zuhairi told The Straits Times. “It indeed encourages future acts.”

As for the Bojinka Plot, I know it was "compromised" in Manila, but suspect that like the 9/11 plot it was conceived over time in a lot of places to include Malaysia, Saudi, Pakistan, and maybe even during meetings in Mindanao. The good news is it was disrupted.

My biggest concern in the Philippines isn't the ASG, but rather the Balik Islam movement and the potential pool of recruits throughout the Philippines to include Manila that could truly conduct strategic attacks.

You're right that JI and its off shoots have not evolved into an insurgency, but there are still reasons for concern. Det 88 has done a great job at suppressing the threat, but the ideology is alive and well among the true believers (even if they are a minority).

[Dayuhan]

As for the Bojinka Plot, I know it was "compromised" in Manila, but suspect that like the 9/11 plot it was conceived over time in a lot of places to include Malaysia, Saudi, Pakistan, and maybe even during meetings in Mindanao. The good news is it was disrupted.

I have no doubt that Ramzi Youssef's Manila group was in direct and constant contact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, and that there was input from both directions in the plot. His involvement with extremist groups in the Philippines has been widely overstated. Most evidence suggests that while he was in regular contact with Khalid Sheik Mohammed, he avoided most contact with local groups in both Manila and Mindanao for security reasons. This of course was wise: ASG was host to known police assets and the Muslim underground in Manila is riddled with informers. I don't think anyone in ASG would have been privy to the details of the plot.

A great deal has been made of the fact that Youssef claimed the JAL bombing for the ASG, but I suspect that this was done mainly to put KSM's project on the map and divert attention from him... he obviously wouldn't want to announce his presence in Manila.

Despite his security concerns, I've some reason to believe that the group was not "compromised" in the manner that was widely reported, but that's another story!

My biggest concern in the Philippines isn't the ASG, but rather the Balik Islam movement and the potential pool of recruits throughout the Philippines to include Manila that could truly conduct strategic attacks.

That concern was very much with us after the Superferry bombing, but the RSM never got back on its feet after the arrest of Ahmed Santos and subsequent attempts to harness the potential of the Balik Islam group have not produced much result. The potential is certainly there, but the extent to which it's a major concern remains open to doubt. We'll see.

You're right that JI and its off shoots have not evolved into an insurgency, but there are still reasons for concern. Det 88 has done a great job at suppressing the threat, but the ideology is alive and well among the true believers (even if they are a minority).

The suppression is only half the story. The decline in sectarian violence in Sulawesi and Maluku has had an impact as well. Those incidents got a lot of attention and were spun as violence against Muslims within Indonesia (not endorsing that spin, but it was there), which was enabler for groups like Laskar Jihad, which recruited Muslims to support their local brethren. That in turn served as a jihadi recruitment pool. The decline in that violence has diminished public attachment to radical causes and affected recruitment, fundraising, and willingness to give shelter and passive support (i.e. not informing). JI's habit of attacking soft targets that include many Indonesian Muslim casualties hasn't helped either.

Suppression has played a part, but the environment overall is not that conducive to replacement of the people removed from the movement or to the spread of radicalism outside the inner circle.