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Thread: Syria in 2016 (April-June)

  1. #2621
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    "Vodka moment".....what does the Russian FM think after constantly bombing with incendiary and cluster munitions and continued staving civilians.......


    MFA Russia
    ✔ @mfa_russia #Kinshchak: Compromise at #Syria talks is hard due to High Negotiations Committee stance
    http://bit.ly/293grHC

  2. #2622
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Failed Tabqa offensive reveals much

    Catching up after an "away day" and thanks to a "lurker" for pointing out this excellent analysis 'No end in sight: Failed Tabqa offensive reveals underlying shortcomings of regime force' on Oryx Blog:http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.uk/2016...offensive.html

    Apologies if cited before.
    davidbfpo

  3. #2623
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Catching up after an "away day" and thanks to a "lurker" for pointing out this excellent analysis 'No end in sight: Failed Tabqa offensive reveals underlying shortcomings of regime force' on Oryx Blog:http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.uk/2016...offensive.html

    Apologies if cited before.
    David...thanks had not caught this one.....CrowBat has been doing some good analysis of the actual fighting as well....

  4. #2624
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    Rebels pounding Dahiyat al-Assad west #Aleppo with artillery seems preparing for a new offensive.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36...82494&z=15&m=b

    Rebels engage with Assad forces trying to retake positions lost y'day in Akrad Mount #Latakia.
    https://twitter.com/islamic_front/st...61658753777664

    Today's hype about NSyA operation is only surpassed by hype about ISIS counter-attack.

    Rebels seems sustained all their gains from y'day in Akrad & Turkmen Mounts except for Ayn al-Qantara near Kinsibba.
    https://twitter.com/NorthernStork/st...84111017164800

    Aleppo Rebels retook Arab Slom part of #Mallah farms, destroyed a tank & a technical
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...39368&z=15&m=b

    Jaish_Fateh launch counterattack at Mallah area and claims control of Arab Saloum village south of al-Asamat

    Mallah: after wide pre-emptive shelling, Rebels started a counter-offensive & retook some areas from pro-Regime forces. N. #Aleppo.

    Rebels captured Ard al-Wata and Ayn al-Qantara villages in Akrad Mount now closing on Kensabba from two sides.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...74717&z=15&m=b

    NSyA paying high price for US irrealistic plans: there's no quick & easy victory vs #ISIS.

    Vehicles, weapons & gear, including satellite devices, directly shipped from US by Unicorr into #ISIS hands. #NSyA

    Reports #RuAF intensified airstrikes on #Mallah as pro-Regime offensive stalling since 48hrs. Russia committed to besiege Rebel-held #Aleppo

    Jaish_Fateh launch counterattack at Mallah area and claims control of Arab Saloum village south of al-Asamat

  5. #2625
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    The #terror continues in #Syria.
    1 womand, 3 children killed in air strike on #Saraqib.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6EUv2Am7Vk …

  6. #2626
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    Mallah area in Northern outskirts of #Aleppo city is now completely under Opposition factions control.

    Under heavy #RuAF airstrikes, Opposition factions launched counter offensive in North #Aleppo; captured several areas near Handarat.

    Aleppo Rebels retook Arab Slom part of #Mallah farms, destroyed a tank & a technical
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...39368&z=15&m=b …

    Jaish_Fateh launch counterattack at Mallah area and claims control of Arab Saloum village south of al-Asamat

    Nusra artillery open fire in N-Aleppo to regain lost farms.
    PS. Didn't know #JN had an own 2S1 Gvozdika

    Faylaq Al-Sham took out with a #Kornet a firing 23 mm gun with on #Mallah front, N. #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Cdwz9vcSY …

    Massive SVBIED detonated by Jaish Al-Fateh during counter-offensive in #Mallah. N. #Aleppo.

    Despite airstrikes, Rebels have seized back all areas in #Mallah they lost to pro-Regime forces days ago. N. #Aleppo

    FSA Levant Front | tank shelling regime positions during recapture of al-Mallah #Aleppo:
    https://youtu.be/jf_62o3DDPU

    TOW strike by Sultan Murad on #ISIS sniper nest near Dudiyan, N. #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfesXc_shUo …

    Tajamu Fastaqem annihilated with a #TOW a Gvozdika on #Mallah front, N. #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9rDVq1RA0w …

    Jaish Al-Izza blew up with a #TOW a barrier in Tell #Mallah, making casualites. N. #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGNO_iiG8zU …

  7. #2627
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    Dozens of #Russian air strikes north of #Aleppo today.
    #Huraytan and #Anadan hit.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0PtNl9tJe4 …

    Suspected #Russian air strikes north of #Aleppo today.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcT0...ature=youtu.be …

  8. #2628
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat....think the Russians are actually goin for Aleppo in the face of their saying which no one can really believe anything they say...that they were not going to attack Aleppo...

    Reports of 60(!) #Russian air strikes north of #Aleppo this morning.
    Focus on #Huraytan & other cites around.
    Serious in capturing Aleppo.
    Russians are going exactly nowhere. They're all the time - and together with Assadists - massacring civilians in Anadan, Hreitan and further south (even in Idlib City again), just NOT bombing the frontlines, i.e. NOT providing at least interdiction strikes for Assadists, and surely enough: NEVER bombing what they (and ever more insurgents) call 'al-Qaida' (namely the JAN).

    Correspondingly (and unsurprisingly), insurgent ATGM-teams knocked out several of Assadist artillery pieces (here Fastaqam Union's TOW vs 2S1 Gvozdika: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9rDVq1RA0w), then the 'al-Qaida' - i.e. the JAN re-deployed its 'shock' troops to the Mallah farms, hit the Tiger Force with two VBIEDs.

    Combined with a big attack by insugents of the HNAZ (Harakat Noureddin az-Zenghi) against the al-Qods al-Filistini Brigade that was in Hindarat, this caused the Assadists to run away - with the usual excuse of 'heavy pressure', 'heavy clashes', and other blahblah.

    Bottom line: Mallah area is now under complete control of insurgents and jihadists, and the Castello Road safe again.

    BTW, here the driver of one of the VBIEDs in question:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpvlh3ux9kE

    Best of all is that the heroes of the Tiger Force and al-Qods retreated from all of Ard al-Mallah this time, which means they were thrown further back than their starting lines... unsurprisingly, there are even some reports about the insurgents advancing further towards north. We'll see what comes out of that, tomorrow in the morning.

    **************

    Meanwhile, whatever CIA or CENTCOM idiot planned that NSyA assault on al-Bukamal, the character in question proved as 'good' at his job as any of Assadist mini-Napoleons.

    Namely, the Daesh quickly counterattacked there and forced the NSyA to retreat out of the town. At least the known losses are limited to five KIA and 2 WIA - so far.

    That is: Daesh claims 40+ KIA insurgents, 15 captured, and is already boasting with equipment and arms once again provided directly by the USA...

    Rumour has it: the NSyA actually run out of ammo, because Americans refused to provide enough of the same....

    **************

    Overall, this war is meanwhile a championship of idiotic megalomaniacs that think they're running the show.

  9. #2629
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    Let's face the truth!
    The only thing that saves #Aleppo from being cut-off are foreign arms.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHoxfEQNEfQ

    The #FSA destroyed an #Assad regime 122 mm artillery piece in southern #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4VA...ature=youtu.be

    Very short range Metis strike (16th Division) on T-72 in Khaldiya, #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4z_Mi_pIkY

    Faylaq Al-Sham took out with another #Kornet a firing 23 mm gun on #Mallah front, N. #Aleppo
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3qn0MJtjms

    Faylaq Al-Sham blew up with a #Kornet an #ATGM team in #Mallah, N. #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icB6u9Lev8U

    An assault by Nureddin with MBT & BMP
    #GoPro
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31p_YiyJTgY

  10. #2630
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    BTW, seems after the latest failure of the Tiger Force and al-Qods in NW Aleppo, Moscow is back in 'gloves are off' modus (or at least about to switch back to that mode).

    Can't talk about too many details, but let me observe that it very much looks as if they're in the process of taking-over the SyAAF - as a part of a campaign to rip the regime away from the IRGC.

    Probably related to this are rumours about 'hot activity' at places like Hmemmem AB and Istamo helidrme - which were followed by a wave of 'disappearances' (see: arrests) of most of pilots/officers that used to have internet accounts.

    One thing never stops amazing me: those pilots/officers still serving with the SyAAF can really only be described as 'fanatic loyalists'. Yet, the AFI can't stop treating them as worst and most dangerous opponents of the very regime to which they are so loyal...

  11. #2631
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    This proves what the entire Arab Sunni ME has stated for months since the Russians came into Syria.....Obama/Rhodes WH has done a "Golden Handshake" over Syria and that in fact this explains the reluctance of the Obama/Rhodes WH to end the Assad genocide....

    Obama in 2014 stated...."we will judge Putin by his actions not his words"...and in eastern Ukraine and Syria he has never fulfilled a single thing and never fulfilled a single point of Minsk 2...SO WHY is he going to suddenly change his tiger strips......AND put the brakes on Assad

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ama-proposes-n...

    Obama proposes new military partnership with Russia in Syria

    By Josh Rogin June 30 at 7:01 AM 

    The Obama administration has proposed a new agreement on Syria to the Russian government that would deepen military cooperation between the two countries against some terrorists in exchange for Russia getting the Assad regime to stop bombing U.S.-supported rebels.

    The United States transmitted the text of the proposed agreement to the Russian government on Monday after weeks of negotiations and internal Obama administration deliberations, an administration official told me. The crux of the deal is a U.S. promise to join forces with the Russian air force to share targeting and coordinate an expanded bombing campaign against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, which is primarily fighting the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

    Under the proposal, which was personally approved by President Obama and heavily supported by Secretary of State John F. Kerry, the American and Russian militaries would cooperate at an unprecedented level, something the Russians have sought for a long time.

    In exchange, the Russians would agree to pressure the Assad regime to stop bombing certain Syrian rebel groups the United States does not consider terrorists. The United States would not give Russia the exact locations of these groups, under the proposal, but would specify geographic zones that would be safe from the Assad regime’s aerial assaults.

    Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter was opposed to this plan, officials said, but was ultimately compelled to go along with the president’s decision. For many inside and outside the administration who are frustrated with the White House’s decision-making on Syria, the new plan is fatally flawed for several reasons.

    “One big flaw is that it’s clear that the Russians have no intent to put heavy pressure on Assad,” said former U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford. “And in those instances when the Russians have put pressure on, they’ve gotten minimal results from the Syrians.”

    There’s not enough reliable intelligence to distinguish Jabhat al-Nusra targets from the other rebel groups they often live near, Ford said. And even if the Syrians agreed not to bomb certain zones, there would be no way to stop Jabhat al-Nusra and other groups from moving around to adjust. Moreover, increased bombing of Jabhat al-Nusra would be likely to cause collateral damage including civilian deaths, which would only bolster the group’s local support.

    “It makes no sense to me,” said Ford. “If they are trying to destroy al-Qaeda in Syria, do they really think bombing them is the way to do it? F-16s do not solve recruitment problems with extremist groups.”

    One administration official complained that the plan contains no consequences for the Russians or the Assad regime if they don’t hold up their end of the bargain. Fifty-one U.S. diplomats signed a dissent letter this month calling on the White House to use targeted military force against the Assad regime as a means of increasing the pressure on Assad and giving the U.S. real leverage.

    Kerry has been threatening for months that if Assad doesn’t respect the current cease-fire, known as the “cessation of hostilities,” that there was a “Plan B” of increasing arms to the Syrian rebels. But the White House has now scuttled that plan in favor of the proposed Russia deal, which could actually leave the rebels in a far worse position.

    Because most Jabhat al-Nusra fighters are fighting Assad, if the plan succeeds, Assad will be in a much better position. Meanwhile, the other Sunni Arab groups that are left fighting Assad will be in a much weaker position, said Andrew Tabler, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The strategy could allow Assad to capture Aleppo, which would be a huge victory for his side in the civil war.

    “If the U.S. and Russia open up on Jabhat al-Nusra, that changes the dynamics on the ground in Aleppo and Idlib,” he said. “It would definitely benefit the Assad regime and it could potentially benefit the Kurds and ISIS.”

    For Russia, the deal is not just about Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin sees increased military cooperation as an acknowledgment of Russian importance and a way to gradually unwind Russia’s isolation following the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. That’s why Carter was initially opposed to the plan, officials said.

    “The Russians have made it very clear that they want military-to-military cooperation with the U.S., not just to fight terrorism, but to improve their world standing,” said Tabler. “It is a way to be welcomed back into the fold.”

    State Department spokesman John Kirby declined to comment on the specifics of the proposal but defended its basic principles.

    “We have been clear about Russia’s obligations to ensure regime compliance with the cessation of hostilities. We have also been clear about the danger posed by al-Qaeda in Syria to our own national security,” he said. “We are looking at a number of measures to address both of these issues.”

    For the White House, the priority in Syria is not solving the Syrian civil war, which most White House officials believe is intractable, or forcing the ouster of Assad. Senior administration officials admit that Russia and Assad are violating the cease-fire and failing to show the will to advance the political process. But the White House has decided not to go back to the plan of increasing pressure on the Assad regime.

    “Analytically speaking, the path of military escalation by one side or the other is not likely to lead to a final outcome in Syria,” one senior administration official told me. “It’s essentially a stalemate.”

    The White House wants to keep the cease-fire in place for as long as possible, despite the violations, and wants to keep the political process going, despite the lack of progress.

    “We want to keep the violence as low as possible for as long as possible,” the official said. “What we have to look at is, what is the alternative? And the alternative is either the levels of violence that we saw months ago . . . or we could see the violence get even worse.”

    CIA Director John Brennan said Wednesday in remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations that Russia is “trying to crush” anti-Assad forces and that Moscow has not lived up to its commitments regarding the cease-fire or the political process in Syria. Nevertheless, Brennan said, the United States needs to work with Russia.

    “There’s going to be no way forward on the political front without active Russian cooperation and genuine Russian interest in moving forward,” he said.

    If the price of getting Russia on board with the Syrian political process is to further abandon the Syrian rebels and hand Assad large swaths of territory, it’s a bad deal. It’s an even worse deal if Russia takes the U.S. offer and then doesn’t deliver on its corresponding obligations.

    The Obama administration is understandably trying to find some creative way to salvage its Syria policy in its final months. But the proposal that Obama offered Putin will have costs for the U.S. position vis-ΰ-vis Russia as well as for the Syrian crisis long after Obama leaves office.
    The Obama/Rhodes WH is effectively locking the next US President into what Obama wants them to do and effectively locking them into what he wants them to do with the Russians...WITHOUT a single proven reciprocal offer by Russia either in eastern Ukraine and in Syria....

    Try this one! By jointly bombing Nusra, the US hopes to make it seem like a defender of the Syrian people against imperialist aggression....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-30-2016 at 01:40 PM.

  12. #2632
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    I just published “BMG-71 TOW ATGM Syrian Opposition groups in the Syrian Civil War”
    https://medium.com/p/bmg-71-tow-atgm...r-2636c6d08d68 …

  13. #2633
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This proves what the entire Arab Sunni ME has stated for months since the Russians came into Syria.....Obama/Rhodes WH has done a "Golden Handshake" over Syria and that in fact this explains the reluctance of the Obama/Rhodes WH to end the Assad genocide....

    Obama in 2014 stated...."we will judge Putin by his actions not his words"...and in eastern Ukraine and Syria he has never fulfilled a single thing and never fulfilled a single point of Minsk 2...SO WHY is he going to suddenly change his tiger strips......AND put the brakes on Assad

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ama-proposes-n...

    Obama proposes new military partnership with Russia in Syria

    By Josh Rogin June 30 at 7:01 AM 



    The Obama/Rhodes WH is effectively locking the next US President into what Obama wants them to do and effectively locking them into what he wants them to do with the Russians...WITHOUT a single proven reciprocal offer by Russia either in eastern Ukraine and in Syria....

    Try this one! By jointly bombing Nusra, the US hopes to make it seem like a defender of the Syrian people against imperialist aggression....
    The Obama/Rhodes WH openly stated they did not want to be seen doing "stupid ####" and this is one of the stupidest moves I have seen from this WH in 70 odd years of US FP.....

    Goal of Russian intervention in Syria wasnt just to prop up Assad; it was to help Obama reach his inevitable conclusion about this conflict.

    POTUS confirms the utter bankruptcy of his admin. "Obama proposes new military partnership with Russia in Syria."

    The only thing this approach will do is to tell the Arab Sunni world that America is not their friend (or confirm it)
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-30-2016 at 02:15 PM.

  14. #2634
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    Iran covertly recruits Afghan soldiers to fight in #Syria
    http://gu.com/p/4kmp5/stw
    more solid reporting by @SuneEngel

  15. #2635
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This proves what the entire Arab Sunni ME has stated for months since the Russians came into Syria.....Obama/Rhodes WH has done a "Golden Handshake" over Syria and that in fact this explains the reluctance of the Obama/Rhodes WH to end the Assad genocide....

    Obama in 2014 stated...."we will judge Putin by his actions not his words"...and in eastern Ukraine and Syria he has never fulfilled a single thing and never fulfilled a single point of Minsk 2...SO WHY is he going to suddenly change his tiger strips......AND put the brakes on Assad

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ama-proposes-n...

    Obama proposes new military partnership with Russia in Syria

    By Josh Rogin June 30 at 7:01 AM 

    The Obama/Rhodes WH is effectively locking the next US President into what Obama wants them to do and effectively locking them into what he wants them to do with the Russians...WITHOUT a single proven reciprocal offer by Russia either in eastern Ukraine and in Syria....

    Try this one! By jointly bombing Nusra, the US hopes to make it seem like a defender of the Syrian people against imperialist aggression....
    Russia Is Sending Jihadis to Join ISIS
    http://thebea.st/1NUvhvC
    via @thedailybeast

  16. #2636
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    2 dozen #Assad-forces killed by #IslamicState in
    Al Talila reserve near #Palmyra
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=34...63135&z=12&m=b …

  17. #2637
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    White House officials say Assad/Russia can't be trusted, so the plan is to work with Assad/Russia. I just work here

    Putin: Russia sincerely wants to resolve the crisis in Ukraine
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/30-june...lve-the-crisis … via @RT_russian

    Sincerely killing 2 Ukrainian service men, injuring 11 more, over the last 24 hours during 61 artillery and ground attacks....

    NOW 3 killed, 15 wounded.Ukrainian army was under attack with mortars, tanks and artillery
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl5vCtcxf14
    http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/30-june...army-was-under

    Resolve yes but not to fulfill even Minsk 2..... AND Syria....?????


    Just another day of #Assad bombing #Daraya with the world having its head up its ***.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_2pZD9KNT8

    More air strikes towns west of #Aleppo today.
    Intl. community?
    Deaf, dumb & blind!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juvLR3CL3e4

    The #FSA destroyed a regime ammunition depot north of #Aleppo w/ the TOW.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcjvfMPkfZk

    Heavy air strikes north of #Alepp continue.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_9n9XVFeJo
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-30-2016 at 04:08 PM.

  18. #2638
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    Regime forces launched counter offensive and retook some positions, including Ayn Qantarah, Art al-Wata and Tall Abu Ali. #Latakia #Syria

    Recently activity of #Aleppo Nayrab Airbase is very reduced but still has ~33 warplanes, jet trainers & helicopters.

    Daraya: Assad regime attempts to break in. 42 barrel bombs. Tens of artillery & missiles shells

    Dropped yesterday by RuAF...in Idib.......
    SPBE submunitions
    http://armamentresearch.com/rbk-500-...oyed-in-syria/

    "Sheikh Ahmed al-Assir Brigades” threatens attacks on #Hezbollah, #Iran & Iranian military aircraft in #Lebanon:
    https://youtu.be/zXtrp4xenq0
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-30-2016 at 04:37 PM.

  19. #2639
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    This proves what the entire Arab Sunni ME has stated for months since the Russians came into Syria.....Obama/Rhodes WH has done a "Golden Handshake" over Syria and that in fact this explains the reluctance of the Obama/Rhodes WH to end the Assad genocide....

    Obama in 2014 stated...."we will judge Putin by his actions not his words"...and in eastern Ukraine and Syria he has never fulfilled a single thing and never fulfilled a single point of Minsk 2...SO WHY is he going to suddenly change his tiger strips......AND put the brakes on Assad

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ama-proposes-n...

    Obama proposes new military partnership with Russia in Syria

    By Josh Rogin June 30 at 7:01 AM 

    The Obama/Rhodes WH is effectively locking the next US President into what Obama wants them to do and effectively locking them into what he wants them to do with the Russians...WITHOUT a single proven reciprocal offer by Russia either in eastern Ukraine and in Syria....

    Try this one! By jointly bombing Nusra, the US hopes to make it seem like a defender of the Syrian people against imperialist aggression....
    BUT WAIT...it appears that the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH have not read through the entire 2016 National Defense Authorization Act and I am sure DoD does not want to lose money over of a "stupid" decision....

    Worth nothing the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act currently prohibits US-Russia military cooperation:

    SO now the Obama/Rhodes WH is simply going to override Federal Law in the name of "legacy"??????

    Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister ·
    Have we learned nothing at all?
    Not only will this not work, it’ll only drive more support to Jabhat al-Nusra:

    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-30-2016 at 04:44 PM.

  20. #2640
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    UN #Syria Envoy DeMistura (due in DC tom'rw) says he's aiming for next round of talks in July, to secure a political transition in August.

    24 opposition aid orgs (incl. @SyriaCivilDef & @snhr) have told UNSG they’ll soon withdraw from #Geneva process unless civilians protected.

    Anti-talent of the kind possessed by the United Nations isn't available to just anybody: finely honed attribute.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-30-2016 at 05:04 PM.

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