'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

David,

This is a trap 99% of Western analysts fall into, "economic inequality" did not cause Boko Haram, religious fundamentalism did.

Anywhere from 30 - 40% of the population of Borno State (the epicenter of Boko Haram) is Christian, there has been no equivalent group from that population.

Poverty, alienation & economic disparity are a constant in human history - they probably led to the French Revolution. Having said that, very few scholars focus on poverty and alienation when discussing the French Revolution.

What matters is the narrative the poor accept - that is what drove the French Revolution, what is driving Boko Haram and what prevents the Christian community from adopting a similar stance.

[davidbfpo]

Professor Paul Rogers has an article on Nigeria and this sums it up:

Nigeria's approach to controlling Boko Haram is flawed at just about every level, from the individual to the transnational. The policy fuels the movement's image as defenders of a besieged Islam who have no choice but to resist and to inspire a process of puritan social and spiritual renewal.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...oko-haram-risk

Alas there is no mention of alternative options to the apparent violence-only approach of the army; as reported in:http://wap.nytimes.com/2013/05/08/wo...islamists.html

That nice diplomatic phrase 'security sector reform' (SSR) is rather difficult in the midst of an insurgency, as the UK painfully learnt in Northern Ireland and only really achieved after 'The Troubles' abated.

[KingJaja]

David,

That nice diplomatic phrase 'security sector reform' (SSR) is rather difficult in the midst of an insurgency, as the UK painfully learnt in Northern Ireland and only really achieved after 'The Troubles' abated.

Excellently put, the only thing standing between the Nigerian State & implosion is the Nigerian Army. So politicians have to deal with the Military modus operandi.

This is very sad, but true.

Secondly, the Army has ruled the nation in the past & it is still a strong force, total civilian control might exist in theory, but not in practice - i.e. civilians do not have all the latitude to tell soldiers what to do.

[davidbfpo]

When Islamic fighters drove into a town in north-eastern Nigeria last week, they used anti-aircraft guns, mounted on the backs of trucks, to destroy nearly every landmark of the nation's federal government......Where the weaponry has come from also remains unclear. A propaganda video released in March by Boko Haram, featuring its leader, Abubakar Shekau, showed fighters gathered around weapons they said they had stolen from an attack on an army barracks. Those weapons included what appeared to be heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and possibly anti-aircraft weapons, as well as ammunition and brand-new bulletproof vests.

Link:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...g-8612408.html

[Bill Moore]

Not to divert the topic away from Nigeria which is critically important at Africa's largest nation, but the article points the collapse of Libya leading to the surge of higher end weapons being made available to the Islamist Network. That quickly changed the equation (parity between opponents) in Mali, Nigeria and I suspect elsewhere.

Fast forward to a time when Bashir potentially falls from power. I still don't think the writing is on the wall, as long as he continues to receive support from Russia and Iran, but if the does fall and in the chaos that follows Islamists obtain a range of higher end weapons (including chemical weapons) that will present a credible threat to Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Israel and beyond.

Back to Africa and stability. An idea I'm wrestling with for future debate is that what defines stability for the U.S. and others tends to change the wider you open the aperture. Stability within nations is influenced by local government and other factors, but sometimes those governments that are inept at governing their own people provide a degree of regional stability by holding things in check. When the U.S. talks about maintaining stability what does that actually mean? What should it mean? I'll transfer this to a new thread, but they article posted above is a good sag way to this discussion.

[davidbfpo]

A succinct IISS Strategic Comment on Nigeria:http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/...oko-haram-cf8c

[SWJ Blog]

Ensuring U.S. Prosperity and Security: The Case for Nigeria

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[SWJ Blog]

The Causes of Instability in Nigeria and Implications for the United States

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[SWJ Blog]

The Causes of Instability in Nigeria and Implications for the United States

[KingJaja]

Not to divert the topic away from Nigeria which is critically important at Africa's largest nation, but the article points the collapse of Libya leading to the surge of higher end weapons being made available to the Islamist Network. That quickly changed the equation (parity between opponents) in Mali, Nigeria and I suspect elsewhere.

Fast forward to a time when Bashir potentially falls from power. I still don't think the writing is on the wall, as long as he continues to receive support from Russia and Iran, but if the does fall and in the chaos that follows Islamists obtain a range of higher end weapons (including chemical weapons) that will present a credible threat to Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Israel and beyond.

Back to Africa and stability. An idea I'm wrestling with for future debate is that what defines stability for the U.S. and others tends to change the wider you open the aperture. Stability within nations is influenced by local government and other factors, but sometimes those governments that are inept at governing their own people provide a degree of regional stability by holding things in check. When the U.S. talks about maintaining stability what does that actually mean? What should it mean? I'll transfer this to a new thread, but they article posted above is a good sag way to this discussion.

US is in uncharted territory here. I think a lot of what the US is dealing with is the failure of the order imposed by British & French colonial empires in Africa & the Middle East.

Carving out a random geographical area and calling it "a nation" without bothering to understand ethnic, cultural or linguistic differences was always going to fail. It was done on an industrial scale in Africa & a lot of it was done in the Middle East.

These fundamental issues should have been dealt with in the decades immediately after decolonization, but the distraction of the Cold War meant that they were never dealt with.

For example in Nigeria, we talk about Boko Haram. There's the Al Qaeda component, but there's the equally important (some would argue more important) ancient rivalry between Kanem Bornu and the Sokoto Caliphate. While the Sokoto Caliphate was pretty much left intact within Nigeria (and few parts of Niger) - Kanem Bornu was split between Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroun!!

So Sokoto later dominates Nigerian politics, while Kanem Bornu will play second fiddle in perpertuity. These ethnic tensions are mirrored across virtually all Sub-Saharan states - colonization created winners and losers.

So such states are inherently unstable.

So what does America mean when it aims for stability? Does that mean imposing the current unstable equilibrium? But that cannot last forever, will the US continue to sustain artificial African states for 20, 30 or 40 years.

A lot of the so-called instability is expected. British and French colonies (e.g. Syria) were created for divide and rule, not to endure as stable Jeffersonian democracies.

The British and French created a mess - and after much bloodshed, that mess will be cleaned up.

And there is nothing the United States of America can do about that.

[SWJ Blog]

How to Deal with Nigeria's Boko Haram: A Primer

[Dayuhan]

The British and French created a mess - and after much bloodshed, that mess will be cleaned up.

And there is nothing the United States of America can do about that.

I have to agree with that, though I'd add that the mess will not be "cleaned up" by any outside party. A lasting solution will have to evolve from within, not be imposed from without, and as you say, that evolution will not be pretty. If Africa is unlucky it may be as ugly as the evolution of sustainable states in Europe.

I'd also point out that order and stability are very different things, and that when the US says it seeks stability, it is often actually seeking order. An artificially imposed order that does not allow space for the inherently disorderly resolution of implicit tension is a highly unstable state.

I'd be curious to hear your opinion on this:

http://africacenter.org/2013/08/miti...thern-nigeria/

[KingJaja]

I have to agree with that, though I'd add that the mess will not be "cleaned up" by any outside party. A lasting solution will have to evolve from within, not be imposed from without, and as you say, that evolution will not be pretty. If Africa is unlucky it may be as ugly as the evolution of sustainable states in Europe.

I'd also point out that order and stability are very different things, and that when the US says it seeks stability, it is often actually seeking order. An artificially imposed order that does not allow space for the inherently disorderly resolution of implicit tension is a highly unstable state.

I'd be curious to hear your opinion on this:

http://africacenter.org/2013/08/miti...thern-nigeria/

I haven't had time to read the link you sent - but yes, the solution will have to evolve from within.

Consider Syria & the wider Middle East - the World is getting closer to an independent Kurdistan and Sykes-Picot will unravel, no matter how many carrier battle groups the US stations in the Persian Gulf.

I would also argue that instability is less of a problem in East Asia, because colonial boundaries were more representative of ethno/religious realities.

[KingJaja]

What are they waiting on? This has been going on for years, yet the response in most cases has been fairly tame. People fighting for survival won't and probably shouldn't play by our rules. We wouldn't follow our rules if we were seriously threatened.

Please read this:

Volunteer Vigilance Youths Group (VVYG) otherwise known as 'Civilian JTF' on Thursday arrested and set ablaze an alleged notorious Boko Haram sect member at Gwange ward in Maiduguri, Borno State capital, residents and witnesses said.

This is the second time the youths would burn a suspected member of the Boko Haram in less than a week.

Some of the vigilante members who took part in the burning said the suspect had once killed and burned a soldier in the area sometime last year.

The claim could not be verified from the spokesman of the Joint Task Force, JTF, Lt Col Sagir Musa but a security source confirmed that the youths had burnt the suspect.

"This (the action of the vigilantes) is a serious source of concern to us... jungle justice is a crime in itself and we want parents to caution their wards against it," the source said.

Weekly Trust gathered that the suspected Boko Haram member had led insurgents in the killing of many people and perpetrated "many atrocities" at Gwange Sabon Layi.

"The actions of the suspect who fled to the forest last December prompted soldiers to sack residents from the area," a resident of Gwange said.

One of the vigilantes also corroborated. "Only Allah knows how eager we were to catch that guy (burnt suspect) alive. As a result of his bad deeds, soldiers sacked and closed our area completely. But we were then told that the guy had escaped into the forest. Some even believed that he has been killed since. We were on operations when we saw him.

"On seeing him, all the youths shouted 'here he is'. Then everyone of us was jubilating, seeing our 'wanted guy'.

"So, we instantly reminded him of what he did last year, but to our surprise, he started begging us to pardon him. As he was crying, we tied him up, poured fuel on his body and set him on fire. No pity for Boko Haram sect members at all now. Thousands have been displaced and hundreds were killed because of his bad deeds," the vigilante said.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201307270089.html

[Bill Moore]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09...0-students-in/

Islamist terrorists kill dozens of students in attack on Nigerian college

Islamic terrorists dressed in Nigerian military uniforms assaulted a college inside the country Sunday, gunning down dozens of students as they slept in their dorms and shot those trying to flee, witnesses say.

"They started gathering students into groups outside, then they opened fire and killed one group and then moved onto the next group and killed them. It was so terrible," on surviving student, who would only give his first name of Idris, told Reuters.

KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

[JMA]

KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

Bill, they apparently have 9 perps in custody. Given that Kenya does not have the same sensitivities over the use of ... shall we say ... coercion, they will soon all be singing like little birdies. All will be revealed.

That said, yes, you are correct it then depends on what is done with the intel.

[jmm99]

insulting all the real animals I love.

The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.

In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.

Regards

Mike

[Bill Moore]

insulting all the real animals I love.

The fact is that these in Nigeria and those in Kenya are human beings with the same faculties of intellect, conscience and free will that we possess; that they have made deliberate and premediatated choices to do exactly what they have done; and that, as cognizant human beings, they deserve everything that is coming their way.

In short, they deserve retribution, reprobation and specific deterrence.

Regards

Mike

I used to think our strategists would wake up to simple truths and realize how deeply flawed our COIN doctrine really is. This is relevant because we have largely chosen to use a COIN approach to counter terrorism globalism globally by projecting the idea that if you just have good governance all of this will go away. I'm convinced now that our ill conceived views of how the world works hasn't and won't change just because those views are disproven when they bump up against reality. Nations that have a clearer view of reality, a reality not shaded by our idealism, will have to take the lead in the fight against terrorists. They shouldn't allow us to hold them back.

The only way to win over these ass clowns is to convert to their religion and embrace "their" version of sharia law. Of course that won't be enough, it never is. Where they achieve power status what follows will be the oppression of women, and then certain men won't be Muslim enough for the radicals so they'll have to be killed, and so on and so on.

[KingJaja]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/09...0-students-in/



KingJaja, this type of attack should be a redline for any nation. I have seen little evidence that moderate responses work against animals like this.

The Nigerian Army is as brutal as they come, but we are dealing with something that might be beyond the capacity of the Nigerian Army (120,000 soldiers also managing a Niger Delta insurgency & a Middle Belt crisis).

The Sahel had great inland cities & it's economy was based on transactions between the interior & the Maghreb. Unfortunately, European trade with the coasts broke those links & even though the physical routes for trade are intact, very little trade occurs in that region.

That region is not economically productive & will never be, but it is still linked to the Maghreb & the interior. So we are dealing with a transnational problem that might only get worse with time.

It is impossible to police Nigeria's Northern borders - so these animals will have free movement through even weaker states like Niger, Chad & Cameroun - which they could destabilize large parts of in future.

I don't know how this thing will end, but it won't end soon. It will end only after all parties are exhausted.

[carl]

Sub-Saharan Africa is a bit different from the Middle East - it has a lot more Christians than Muslims & Christians tend to be located more in the wealthier, coastal cities.

If they want to provoke a reaction from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa - eventually they'll get it, but they will regret it.

From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?