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Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #981
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Mirhond hasn't been up in 3 days and today he's/they're up. So I guess that means something has gone down or may likely go down today.

    Mirhond, a smidgen of frustration is beginning show through on your part. Very bad form.
    carl--he is totally new as the three others tended to at least know what the previous one had written as a response.

    Bad mistake depicts a little hectic on his part.

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    mirhond--since you agreed with the scientific polling that is guiding Putin then I am assuming you agree with all of the following videos from the "fighting front of the poor oppressed Russians in eastern Ukraine".

    http://rusvesna.su/video

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    carl--he is totally new as the three others tended to at least know what the previous one had written as a response.

    Bad mistake depicts a little hectic on his part.
    I wonder how many other sites he/they have to cover other than this one and what the priority of this site is? No wonder things get hectic if they stick to the plan of only posting when things happen, nothing to do for days then frantic activity.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Russian special operations command video from Crimea.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DxfMbi0aCvM

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    Kaur,

    Interesting video. My only take away is that the treatment of many of the Ukrainian military taken prisoners, handcuffed, with the odd kick, stands in marked contrast to the later reporting that a majority preferred to serve in the Russian military or residence in the Crimea.
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Biggus---there is some confusion in the use of the term AK 100 vs 100 series---the AK100 is in fact the AK74 if one uses the term AK 100 series then in fact this particular series (101-105 with multiple different variants) is used only by the Russian Army.

    If one takes the Interior Minister at his word and his comments tying the AK100 to the Russians then in fact he was really referring to the 100 series. There have been only recently two photos) (one in the east and once in the Crimea) showing the 100 series and both had a kaki colored pad attached over the indentation of the rifle butt on the right hand side of the butt not seen in the other photos of the 74Ms. There has been some speculation on the pad use but it has been tied to spatnaz units and their load bearing gear.

    It is just me but I would tend to place some faith in an Interior Minister who probably came out of the SBU to know his weapons and what the Russians use.

    "Not introduced until nearly 1994, the Hundred Series is a rather rare rifle group. Most versions produced are 5.45mm or 7.62mm versions, but a few 5.56mm versions were also made. Most of the Hundred Series ended up in use by Airborne, Air Assault, special operations, or VIP protection units, but perhaps 5000 or so made it into the international market, and somewhat ironically, were mostly bought by Americans."
    Show me the photographs of the purported AK100 series rifles that aren't AK74Ms. The earlier pic in this thread has already been clearly identified as a 5.45 variant with a rifle length barrel, therefore it is an AK74M. I'd very much like to see other pictures.

    Accessories fitted are not exclusive to any particular variant. A buttpad on an AK105 will go on a 74M, or a 74 for that matter. If you're referring to a field dressing being taped or tied to the stock, this has been done by AK users since at least the 1970s.

    Your data on actual production figures is flawed or outdated. There's a factory in Ethiopia right now pumping 103s out, there's a factory in Venezuela, and there's a large number in use with Venezuelan forces. The Indians are negotiating production, the Pakistanis use them, and there are other users too. They are quite common in Libya, they're turning up in Syria. The Bulgarians have been producing clones for several years now. All variants in the very least are not solely used by the Russians. AK104s are used by Venezuela. AK105s are used by Armenia. AK101s and 102s haven't been adopted by anyone. It's hardly a rare series of weapons.

    The Interior Minister might be a very reliable guy, but in this case I haven't seen evidence to suggest he is right. If the Russians were going to roll in with obviously Russian-army-only weapons, he'd have been talking about their 9x39mm weapons as well. Right now, they're doing it with weapons that have adequate deniability.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biggus View Post
    Show me the photographs of the purported AK100 series rifles that aren't AK74Ms. The earlier pic in this thread has already been clearly identified as a 5.45 variant with a rifle length barrel, therefore it is an AK74M. I'd very much like to see other pictures.

    Accessories fitted are not exclusive to any particular variant. A buttpad on an AK105 will go on a 74M, or a 74 for that matter. If you're referring to a field dressing being taped or tied to the stock, this has been done by AK users since at least the 1970s.

    Your data on actual production figures is flawed or outdated. There's a factory in Ethiopia right now pumping 103s out, there's a factory in Venezuela, and there's a large number in use with Venezuelan forces. The Indians are negotiating production, the Pakistanis use them, and there are other users too. They are quite common in Libya, they're turning up in Syria. The Bulgarians have been producing clones for several years now. All variants in the very least are not solely used by the Russians. AK104s are used by Venezuela. AK105s are used by Armenia. AK101s and 102s haven't been adopted by anyone. It's hardly a rare series of weapons.

    The Interior Minister might be a very reliable guy, but in this case I haven't seen evidence to suggest he is right. If the Russians were going to roll in with obviously Russian-army-only weapons, he'd have been talking about their 9x39mm weapons as well. Right now, they're doing it with weapons that have adequate deniability.
    The quote refers to weapons produced inside Russia---the Russian special units and the Ministry do not use weapons built under licensing agreements made outside Russia.

    If one looks at the history of the 100s it was a competition between two arms manufacturers as the Russian Army wanted a "new rifle for a new Army" after realizing they had in the depots/and in Army units enough AK74s and older models to give every Russian citizen a rifle.

    After testing both competitors they did not get to a decision and the 100 series lingered and thus released for licensing/export to recoup their development investments.

    Out of all this confusion in the decision process one stood out and stood out for it's accuracy in auto and semi fire the AN94 even though it is a weapon that is a little clumsy in the handling.

    Check where the AN94 disappeared to after the competition tests--Army special units and the Ministry of the Interior.

    Would actually trust the comments especially made by a SBU/Minister of Interior who has years in the SBU as someone who can discern weapon types and would in fact recognize them.

    Just a side comment---special units world wide--if they train on one particular weapon they deploy with that weapon and in the current turmoil and swirling masses in the various eastern Ukrainian cities with masses of all types of AK74variants a small special unit team's hand carried weapons will simply disappear in the midst and not be automatically recognized as such---that is why his comment is important.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Russian special operations command video from Crimea.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DxfMbi0aCvM
    kaur---compliment for the find as it is what I would call a briefing video for the Russian special forces command as it was in fact rumored that there was at least one special forces brigade if not two operating in the initial takeover of all the official buildings and then the final military installations takeover.

    There have been other special unit videos circulating as well but more from the Russian Marines which might equate with our MARSOC marine units in abilities which would make sense since they copied our USASOC concept.

    A great film to understand weapons, equipment, and TTPs.

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    Seems that the Russian UN Ambassador did not get the NATO briefing using open source imagery.

    Interfax from today.

    09:15 RUSSIAN PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE TO UN CHURKIN: WEST SHOULD STOP SPREADING CONCOCTIONS ABOUT ALLEGED AMASSMENT OF RUSSIAN MILITARY ARMADAS ON UKRAINIAN BORDER

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    There is no deterrent against further Russian action against Ukraine.

    Using Machiavelli it would be a good thing for the Russians to invade Ukraine up to Moldova but including Transnistria.

    The net effect will be:

    * That finally European countries will realise that need to look after themselves and not expect an increasingly impotent US to provide any security umbrella.

    * It will expose the fatal flaw in Germany's leadership which has no military underpinning and force other European states under threat from Russia to make their own alliances to provide a military deterrent against Russian expansion.

    * It will isolate Russia from Europe economically.

    * It provides Europe an opportunity to arm and support a Ukrainian insurgency against Russian occupation to bleed the Russian military and economy.

    * It will lead to a concerted effort by European countries to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent to further Russian expansion.

    * The formation of a European version of NATO excluding the US.

    The message to the US must be "either you provide a deterrent to Russian expansion or you %$#& off".
    Last edited by JMA; 04-14-2014 at 07:33 AM.

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    Biggus/kaur---

    Biggus---reference the 100 series or not---yesterday evening in a German news channel that carries on the weekends a large number of military/historical series there was one on the Russian Special forces which was a one hour film about the "new Russian Army" which is all volunteer and not draftees---depicting the testing of new volunteers for the Russian SF out of 68 only 13 were taken at the end of the endurance testing. Those that failed can try again every six months.

    Depicted volunteers were also from the "new Russian Army" Airborne, Air Assault, and Marine personnel who wanted to join the Russian SF---it depicted a non stop 72 hour endurance test covering all aspects of kick the doors from firing to rappelling to urban MOUT etc.

    During the urban warfare piece which was done on an indoor firing range and depicting a firing session inside a room with targets at 50 meters using iron sights each soldier had to fire 3 times right and 3 times left in under 19 seconds and not miss a single time.

    Now this goes to our discussion of the 100 series--the weapons used were in fact the AN94 firing a sub caliber round in semi mode---the AN94 was clearly seen.

    If it is being used during a 2013 Russian Army SF firing exercise then it is the standard weapon for Russian SF and the airborne, air assault and marines types had no problem firing it and seemed quite comfortable with it --then in fact that is their standard weapon as well regardless of what some articles are saying about the 100 series---the video footage showed excellent accuracy (not a single miss from five individuals shown to be firing) with the sub round which is also a characteristic of the 94--meaning it's accuracy.

    What is missed in this discussion is the fact that the Russian Army has in fact since 2008 created what the West would call an all volunteer Rapid Deployment Force of all volunteers and full time professionals ie officers, NCOs and enlisted numbering roughly 70K that allows now Russia to respond quickly anywhere due to the air mobility and then follow up with the normal draft army.

    Which then goes to the video kaur fished out of YouTube which was basically depicting that SF mobility ability in video footage of various points inside Crimea.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-14-2014 at 10:46 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    The message to the US must be "either you provide a deterrent to Russian expansion or you %$#& off".
    Maybe the message from the US to Erope could be something like "either you get serious about your own defense - say for starters commit to raising defense spending to a minimum of 2.5% of GPD and to re-orienting the energy infrastructure to accept LBG imports - or we will %$#@ off."

    Not as if %$#@ing off would be harming the US, and given Europe's economic capacity there is no reason for them to be expecting to huddle under a "security umbrella" provided by the American taxpayer.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Outlaw, thanks for the post.

    What is missed in this discussion is the fact that the Russian Army has in fact since 2008 created what the West would call an all volunteer Rapid Deployment Force of all volunteers and full time professionals ie officers, NCOs and enlisted numbering roughly 70K that allows now Russia to respond quickly anywhere due to the air mobility and then follow up with the normal draft army.
    Swedes made recently effort to count the beans.

    http://www.researchgate.net/profile/...ad2e24fa66.pdf

    Fuchs commented it here:

    I suppose it's unnecessary to compare this to the military strength of European NATO or the EU. The party which couldn't defend itself here is Russia/Belarus, period. "Wet paper bag" talk only serves one purpose; we can easily identify some people who totally don't deserve our attention.
    http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot....apability.html

    Right behind Latvian border Russian unit is getting new gear. I suppose that this is one of the helicopter units that Shamanov promised to be integrated to VDV divisions.

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/701431.html

    Look for the word of Остров here

    http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/?search=%D0%9C%D0%B8-28

    AR clone in Ukraine. Ukrainian firm makes those clones http://www.zbroyar.com.ua. If I rember correctly Russians are also making AR clones. FSB is using HK417 (or MR308).
    Last edited by kaur; 04-14-2014 at 12:37 PM.

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    Yes the US should have called on Europe to take responsibility for their own defence. They probably did.

    But the US is a control freak in that it wants to micro manage everything - in this example NATO. So like children Europe was brought up by a domineering parent and finds itself incapable of acting independently like adults (when the domineering parent departs).

    Then the US has been reducing its force levels in Europe and thereby their ability to comply with Article 5 responsibilities regardless of the status of European preparedness.

    To be correct the US misread Russian intentions and devastatingly wrong as Germany has. Remember Obama mocking Romney over Russia in the 2012 debate? See here

    “You said Russia. Not Al Qaida. You said Russia,” Obama said regarding biggest threats. “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because…the cold war’s been over for 20 years.”

    Romney offered a powerful retort: “Russia, I indicated, is a geopolitical foe…and I said in the same paragraph I said and Iran is the greatest national security threat we face. Russia does continue to battle us in the U.N. time and time again. I have clear eyes on this. I’m not going to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia or Mr. Putin…”
    OK you go tell the Ukraine and the rest not to get excited as "the cold war’s been over for 20 years.” They have nothing to worry about, right?

    The 'smart guys' have got it wrong again. Disastrously wrong.

    I submit that the Ukraine crisis will be the catalyst for Europe receiving a wake up call. Make no mistake the message of US impotence has hit home in Asia and Africa too.

    The world - especially Russia and China - are left in no doubt that when the crunch comes the US cannot be relied upon.


    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Maybe the message from the US to Erope could be something like "either you get serious about your own defense - say for starters commit to raising defense spending to a minimum of 2.5% of GPD and to re-orienting the energy infrastructure to accept LBG imports - or we will %$#@ off."

    Not as if %$#@ing off would be harming the US, and given Europe's economic capacity there is no reason for them to be expecting to huddle under a "security umbrella" provided by the American taxpayer.

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    Default What should the US do...

    It is important for the US to explain to Russia and Ukraine that Russia has read them correctly and is taking advantage of the political weakness of the US to confront Russian expansionism.

    However, as a last gasp attempt at a moral action the US should state that rather than fail to honour the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances made to Ukraine the US will provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself from Russian aggression which may include tactical nuclear weapons.

    Then and only then can the US depart the scene (albeit with it tail between its legs) with some honour.
    Last edited by JMA; 04-14-2014 at 01:05 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    It is important for the US to explain to Russia and Ukraine that Russia has read them correctly and is taking advantage of the political weakness of the US to confront Russian expansionism.

    However, as a last gasp attempt at a moral action the US should state that rather than fail to honour the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances made to Ukraine the US will provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself from Russian aggression which may include tactical nuclear weapons.

    Then and only then can the US depart the scene (albeit with it tail between its legs) with some honour.
    JMA---slowly agreeing with you---the US has a number of options that it could pull the trigger on to get the message across to Putin, but it keeps looking at the EU/NATO to make decisions---in some aspects NATO/EU are looking at the US for guidance which you allude and is correct. It is almost like the US does not want to damage EU business when in fact you are right it must be the Europeans who make a massive economic threat a serious one for Putin.

    The US should simply walk into the valley of death, close their eyes and pull the trigger on;
    1. Open up the Strategic Oil Reserves and flood the sour oil market for six straight months reducing the sour oil pricing to under 50 USD a barrel which will instantly damage Russian finances as they need at least 85 per barrel just to barely finance their own budget.
    2. Sanction immediately all Russian banks as Stan has pointed out the Estonian leader has said that from the beginning, and lastly 3) move the four BMD destroyers from Rota into the Black Sea area as they are the worst nightmare for Russia ---an anti ballistic missile defense as that negates their only serious threat---nuclear.

    What is puzzling to me though is why the NSA which has been so beaten up on about their capabilities have not released a single cell phone intercept to the world mas media to kill once and for all times the myth of the non Russian soldiers---the proRussian non Russian armed "soldiers" are constantly in videos on their cells and what they NSA cannot intercept?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-14-2014 at 01:31 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Outlaw, thanks for the post.



    Swedes made recently effort to count the beans.

    http://www.researchgate.net/profile/...ad2e24fa66.pdf

    Fuchs commented it here:



    http://defense-and-freedom.blogspot....apability.html

    Right behind Latvian border Russian unit is getting new gear. I suppose that this is one of the helicopter units that Shamanov promised to be integrated to VDV divisions.

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/701431.html

    Look for the word of Остров here

    http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/?search=%D0%9C%D0%B8-28

    AR clone in Ukraine. Ukrainian firm makes those clones http://www.zbroyar.com.ua. If I rember correctly Russians are also making AR clones. FSB is using HK417 (or MR308).
    kaur---did you notice that the Mu-28 seemed to be a cross between the Hind 24 and the US Army AH64 Apache newer version? Who says industrial espionage is not alive and well via the FSB.

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    JMA---took the time to find via the Russian nationalist sites at least 12 videos taken in eastern Ukraine in the last two days and all had individuals walking around using cellphones.

    And you cannot tell me that the NSA does not know what is going on?

    And if so why not release the paraphases of the conversations if not the entire conversations and translated for the world media to listen to and understand?

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    I just can't stop wondering how we happened to be in this situation at all.

    1) people came to Maidan to protest against fact that Yanukovich didn't sign AA/DCFTA with EU last November. AA/DCFTA is trade agreement the Russians didn't like. This is not promise of EU membership perspective.

    2) I suppose that Russians didn't want this happen and told that to both Ukraine and EU. They lowered the gas price and offered loan to Ukraine.

    3) People didn't leave Maidan. Who were they?

    4) In the end of January Maidan became violent.

    5) In a month it became so violent that some EU foreign ministers had to broke deal between opposition parties and Yanukovich. Maidan whistled down those opposition party leaders from the stage. Yanukovich left the country. Opposition got power in Kiev.


    6) Moscow got Crimea and problems in Eastern Ukraine continue.

    At first it was choice between EU AA and Eurasian Economic Union. The population was split http://www.dw.de/ukrainian-support-f...nes/a-17189085 Now the country is splitting between those lines. Who is responsible?

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    I just can't stop wondering how we happened to be in this situation at all.
    Take a step further backwards.

    What gave Russia the belief that they could get away with an invasion of Georgia?

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