Yemen: all you want (2011-2015)

**Bob's World** · 03-22-2011

Originally Posted by Dayuhan

I'n not sure Saudi Arabia is "broken", unless we define "broken" as having a government we don't approve of. Certainly they have problems, but if having problems is being 'broken" there's a whole lot of broken countries out there, ours among them. Yemen is certainly "broken", using the traditional definition of broken = dysfunctional.

Who is saying that? I don't see any causative relation either way. You could say that Yemen's instability is a problem for Saudi Arabia, but to say that Saudi Arabia's problems stem from instability in Yemen would be absurd. Saudi Arabia has a range of problems, most of them not connected in any way to Yemen. Yemen has a rather graver range of problems, most not connected in any way to Saudi Arabia. If we could wave a magic wand and transform Saudi Arabia into a functioning democracy, Yemen would still be what it is, and the other way round.

In any event we can't "fix" either of them, which makes the discussion fairly academic.

I don't think anyone here is in a position to speak for the moderate majority of Saudi Arabia, or for that matter any portion of Saudi Arabia. I think we'd find that there's a fair diversity of opinion in there, and one of the few things most everyone would agree on is that they don't want Americans messing in their internal affairs.

Yemen's problems aren't caused by Saudi Arabia's radical minority, or any other radical minority. Yemen is a seething mass of ethnic, sectarian and clan conflict with no clear concept of national direction or even nationhood and no cohesive "populace". Radicals may be able to exploit that situation to gain refuge and some influence, but they didn't create or cause that situation and if the radicals were no more, Yemen would still be what it is. We just wouldn't notice or care.

Unlikely, not least because there is no unitary "its populace" and the various populaces involved have no unified idea of what they want government to be... or even if they want to be part of "Yemen".

Repetitive, I know... but we can't "fix" either Yemen or Saudi Arabia, and shouldn't try.

"Broken" as in they have a government their populace does not approve of. WE like it just fine. Not all of the populace obviously, but Yemen is the convenient sanctuary the active insurgent element takes refuge in, (those who are not among the thousands languishing in Saudi prisons waiting to be "de-radicalized) and why AQ comes to Yemen conducting UW there, as the demise of the Saudi regime remains bin Laden's top priority.

Yemen has its own problems, but it will always share Saudi's problems as well in this regard. The Saudis would, I am sure, have us wage agressive CT against their nationalist insurgents hiding in Yemen in the name of the war on terrorism. Such engagement reduces the pressure on the Saudis, but increases the reasons why these same men travel to attack America as well. We are being played by all of these guys who know very well how to leverage our fear of oil disruption and terrorism in the US to get us to do what is the exact opposite of what we should be doing to get at the roots of this problem.

But no one said anything about "fixing" anyone. Our problem stems from supporting governments the local populace perceives to be broken and beyond their control.

But hey, it's always interesting to see how my comments can be twisted and taken places I surely never imagined. I am sure these will come back well-twisted as well.

**Surferbeetle** · 03-23-2011

Yemen president's ouster could deal U.S. huge setbacks, By Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times, March 22, 2011, 4:29 p.m.

Yemen strategically borders the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and Saudi Arabia. If Saleh is overthrown civil wars could erupt in both north and south, the Saudis would be rattled and possibly intervene militarily, Iran would almost surely exploit the chaos and the U.S. would be dealt a major setback in containing Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, an entrenched terrorist affiliate.

The drought-prone, poverty-stricken country, with oil tankers skimming its coast and pirates plying its waters, has over the years been largely neglected by the outside world. But with Saleh's government on the verge of collapse, Washington is focusing on the multiplying dangers that could turn the country into an ungovernable haven for militants and a proxy for struggles between regional powers.

The U.S. and other Western powers are not particularly fond of Saleh, who has ruled with a with an authoritarian swagger for 32 years and allowed for no potential successors outside his corrupt inner circle. But like the recently toppled presidents of Egypt and Tunisia, he has been an ally, although at times a reluctant one, in battling Islamic militants and keeping a semblance of order at the turbulent intersection of the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.

There is also concern over the religious passions of whoever succeeds Saleh. A leading candidate is Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsin Saleh Ahmar, the country's most powerful military commander, who defected to the protesters Monday. He is sympathetic to radical political Islam and may embolden the country's fundamentalist clerics.

Islamic militants are only part of Yemen's problems. The secessionist movement in the south, driven by communists, socialists and opportunistic tribesmen, threatens to split the country in half. Since Yemen was stitched back together after the 1994 civil war, the south has sought to break from Saleh. Rebel fighters have their own flag emblazoned on their rifle stocks.

The atmosphere remains precarious in the north, where years of intermittent fighting between government troops and Houthi rebels have left hundreds dead, destroyed villages and forced more than 300,000 people from their homes. The rebels, who belong to a Shiite Muslim offshoot, have long complained of economic discrimination. The struggle is not over religion, but Sunni Muslim-run Saudi Arabia has accused Shiite-controlled Iran of aiding the insurrection.

**Dayuhan** · 03-23-2011