Page 9 of 97 FirstFirst ... 78910111959 ... LastLast
Results 161 to 180 of 1935

Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #161
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Latitude 17° 5' 11N, Longitude 120° 54' 24E, altitude 1499m. Right where I want to be.
    Posts
    3,137

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    What are these options you allude to? Care to elaborate?
    The usual: trade restrictions, travel restrictions, asset freezes... the same economic sanctions that have generally been ineffective elsewhere.

    It is of course true that the Russian economy is not exactly a pillar of strength and a really aggressive combines US/EU sanctions regime could do a lot of damage. Since the EU (particularly Germany, which has a major chunk of the economic leverage) is clearly in no mood to go along with an aggressive sanctions package, that reality doesn't mean much. Sanctions would hurt the Europeans as much as the Russians, and the EU economies aren't exactly doing brilliantly either. The European governments have more concerns with public opinion than Putin does, and odds are that they will blink first.

    This comment from Daniel Drezner pretty much sums up the sanctions problem

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...kraine-crimea:

    Daniel Drezner, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said that with Europe reluctant to endorse a broad sanctions regime, the kinds of measures being contemplated by the White House were unlikely to be more than an “irritation” to Putin.

    “The trade the US has with Russia is pretty minimal,” he said. “And Europe is highly unlikely to restrict the trade that matters – in energy. They can cause Russia a little economic pain but not much.”
    Unilateral US sanctions are not going to hurt the Russians enough to make a difference: the economies just aren't that closely linked.

    Multilateral sanctions with the EU taking an aggressive position would cause real pain, but the EU is not likely to go along.

    Realistically, then, economic sanctions are not likely to make much difference, unless the US and EU act aggressively and in concert. Figure the odds on that.

    I'll leave it to others to outline the realistic military options, but so far there doesn't seem to be much on the table.

    Realistically, I'd guess that if Putin is willing to stop with Crimea, he'll probably get away with it. If he tries to bite off more... that would depend on how much it takes to get the Europeans agitated enough to make a move. The Economic leverage is with Europe, not the US.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  2. #162
    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    SOCAL
    Posts
    2,152

    Default

    If there is anything I learned from studying up on foreign policy in college, and being an instrument of it for over twenty years, it is that Americans have got to get over this fetish for playing zero sum games.

    We can't seem to help ourselves as we clamor over which president is weak vs. strong, who is winning the confrontation, and how this is proof of weak foreign policies. This current drama is bringing out the kooks like usual (e.g. McCain), and good lord they are on the embarrassment train with their one-dimensional, one layer deep understanding of the situation.

    It's sickitating.

  3. #163
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    "Turn left at Greenland." - Ringo Starr
    Posts
    965

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    I don't understand why Western conventional response would be a preferred option. There are lots of Ukrainians available to fight the Russians if it comes to that and they are already organized into an army and air force. All they would really need, at least in the beginning, is money, supplies and as much economic mischief (to include cyber ops) directed at the Russians as the West could manage. Those things would give the Russians a lot to handle, maybe more than they could handle.

    If that didn't work and the Russians prevailed, what did they just win? They just won tens of millions of thoroughly ticked off Ukrainians who would be thrilled to receive help from the special services of a long list of countries who would love to see the Russians choke to death on their conquest. I imagine that would be right up the alley of guys like Outlaw 09 and Bill Moore. The bear may end up biting off a big chunk of meat that has a grenade inside.
    Ukraine is geographically vulnerable: it's mostly flat with a major river that bisects it, has a long coast, and the Crimean peninsula is very thin (and already occupied). Russian mechanized and airborne movements would be very rapid. Doctrinal mechanized road pace for Russian military is 40 miles a day - that's Kharkiv to Kiev in six days. And there would be some question about the reliability of Russian enclaves throughout Ukraine. Not that a general war is going to happen anyway for all the reasons cited in posts above.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  4. #164
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,189

    Default

    40 miles a day maybe if opposed. A largely unopposed march can be much, much quicker. Even the 40 kph tanks of 1940 managed a 50 km advance during a night while shooting up and overrunning bivouacking French divisions.

    Even taking the maintenance needs and durability of T-72s into account, a poorly opposed advance could easily make more than 200 km/day. The advancing forces better have replacement crews for the tracked vehicles flown in after three days at such a pace, though (or with them all the time on trucks for maintenance+driving almost around the clock).

  5. #165
    Council Member carl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Denver on occasion
    Posts
    2,460

    Default

    There is doctrine and there is what actually happens. Besides, what happens to the supply columns following? The further the advance, the more vulnerable they are. And spring is coming which means rain which means mud which means advances confined to the roads. I don't see a walkover here if the Ukrainians chose to fight. That is the big question.

    If the Russians managed to deal with all that, that still leaves my main point above, they have to occupy the place and it will be filled with millions of very angry Ukrainians.

    Like you say though, the Crimea may not be recoverable. All my comments are 'what might be' if they go into the main part of the Ukraine.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  6. #166
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    "Turn left at Greenland." - Ringo Starr
    Posts
    965

    Default

    carl,

    I don't think Ukraine can organize opposition with sufficient speed. Russian forces are already mobilized and the Russian Army isn't a divided organization like the Ukrainian one. I'm also confident Russia has prepared war plans for this kind of scenario -- does Washington and NATO? Given the geography, strategically speaking Ukrainian forces would be best positioned along the Dnieper and anchored in Kiev to prevent a river crossing - but the Russians wouldn't have to go that far for Ukraine disintegrate. Every Ukrainian position east of the river would eventually face encirclement and probably disruptions from Russian sympathizers. Ukrainian partisan activity would have to be urban in nature and Georgia and Chechnya should instruct everyone what that implies for the safety of Ukrainian cities during Russian combat operations.

    There's also the question of defections in Ukrainian forces as well as uprisings in Russian enclaves, particularly Odessa. Russian airborne and naval landings would severely disrupt the support zones of Ukraine. Russia has also a large special operations and light infantry component dedicated to this kind of thing; disrupting enemy forces at all levels (there's already infiltration in Ukrainian cities for political agitation) as well as for police actions securing lines of communication. IMO, it's not a question of quality - but quantity, speed, and geography. Ukraine does not have the resources to fight a mobile war against Russia in open ground.

    How fast could NATO mobilize in response and to what extent? As Fuchs mentioned, Poland and Baltic states would be fixed defending their own borders - that means US, German, French, and British forces. By the time they're introduced into theater and make it to the front, eastern Ukraine would be occupied. The key would be getting to the Dnieper before the Russians do, and in this situation, I don't think that's feasible.

    Realistically, I don't think it's in Russia's interest to stage a larger intervention beyond Crimea, much less conduct a general invasion of the country.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  7. #167
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    "Turn left at Greenland." - Ringo Starr
    Posts
    965

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    I think that, perhaps, Putin realized that he had lost the Ukraine and was going to grab what little he could in the Eastern states to maintain that buffer. But I don't believe he has the ability to risk all out war in Western Ukraine. I could be misreading this, but his actions have been measured. He did not try to take all of Georgia. I don't think he will try to take all of the Ukraine.
    I think there's a large element of truth to this. Whatever Ukraine's fate, it will not be the same as the fate of Crimea (and possibly eastern Ukraine). And while I think strictly speaking in a military perspective, Russia could defeat Ukraine rather effortlessly, I don't think the political and economic context will allow for it. Nor do I think Moscow is interested in occupying the whole of Ukraine anyway. The next act to the unfolding drama will be determined by what the Kiev government decides to do about the pending sovereign debt - and what conditions it will impose on Ukraine. Otherwise we are looking at a long-term situation of ambiguity for Crimea's status.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  8. #168
    Council Member carl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Denver on occasion
    Posts
    2,460

    Default

    American Pride:

    All that may be but, with all due respect, it sounds like a comparison of tables of organization and then drawing conclusions. The last time the Russians faced long term serious resistance, in Chechnya, they weren't too impressive. Initially they were truly lousy.

    They may be and probably are much better now but that still doesn't alter the fact that they will be trying to deal with 45 million people some tens of millions of whom will try to kill them at every opportunity. And the Ukrainians have a tradition of insurgency at least judging by WWII and post WWII.

    I again bring up the subject of security of the supply lines. I read once the Iranian plan if the US Army invaded was to give minimum resistance to the spearhead forces, just enough that they had to keep together, and concentrate on the following supply columns. The Ukrainians might do something like that.

    As I said before, there is no reason at all to involve regular forces of the West. None. There are millions of Ukrainians available who would be very enthusiastic about having an opportunity to slay Russians, during and after an invasion. All they would need is money, weapons and some liaison. Anti-tank missiles and shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles can really foul up supply columns and flights. The Ukrainians have SA-18s and I'll bet if somebody wanted to, they could get some of those Libyan SA-24s that went walkabout.

    Another thing I thought of, this is more long term, the life of a Russian soldier is really lousy. Let's say you put it out that if one of them defects with a weapon he gets 10,000 Euros and a Polish passport. That would worry the Russian officer corps I believe.

    The Russians have a lot of vulnerabilities.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  9. #169
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Hiding from the Dreaded Burrito Gang
    Posts
    3,096

    Default

    Another blog to bookmark
    http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...urn-hot-today/

    It's pretty obvious that the Kremlin's had a "Take eastern Ukraine" staff planning package on ice for awhile.

    Note how quickly the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade at Sevastopol stepped out and moved north to seize the Perekop Isthmus & Chongar Peninsula.

    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  10. #170
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Having access to RT (the Russian channel) it is bizarre to hear and see two absolute opposite views on the same situation being presented.

    Also locally there are questions being asked about how quickly the US forgets about their own Monroe Doctrine and their 'invasions' of Panama and Grenada.

  11. #171
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Certainly Russia realises that Germany - being significantly dependent on Russia - will be the last to sign on for any form of sanctions will be able to push the envelope as a result.

    The Brits will also be in no hurry to place meaningful sanctions on Russia.

    The US will huff and puff...

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Back to Germany. Here's an article from the New Republic on why Germany is not keen on sanctions:



    Currently Berlin is opposed to both punishing sanctions and to expelling Moscow from G8. There was another article discussing the suspension of negotiations regarding Russian visa access to the EU; that would be similar to the EU's response to the Georgian war, suspenion of trade negotiations. In the long-term, Moscow could potentially be economically weakened by sanctions or other reprisals from Brussels and Washington, but events on the ground are moving more quickly. Kiev will be out of cash in several weeks and there is pressure in parts of Ukraine for a secession vote this month.

    So I think discussions about how the impact on Russia's economy will compel it to abandon its military operation overlooks several significant developments that not only demand immediate attention, but also will change the situation in such a way that the conditions of Russia's economy won't matter in the outcome.
    Last edited by JMA; 03-04-2014 at 09:14 AM.

  12. #172
    Council Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    136

    Default Sanctions

    Re sanctions:

    In the medium (10 years) or long term (>20 years) timeframe the Russian position is not strong when we consider decreasing demand for NG and oil in Europe, the increasing global LNG capacities, lack of Russian LNG capacity, and the structure of the Russian (export) economy. Most of the NG is used in central Europe for heating of buildings. Fortunately, these buildings have an poor insulation level. :-)

    The best answer is to build one or two more LNG facilities in the Netherlands, UK and Germany, to ramp-up refitting programs for buildings (KfW) and simply wait. The goal is to compensate for decline of UK and Norwegian NG production with more non-Russian LNG imports, at the same time, efficiency gains will reduce demand for Russian NG.

    As the economy of Ukraine is a mess - it is even worse than the Russian economy - an occupation of more territory than the Crim does not improve the Russian strategic position IMHO.

  13. #173
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    3. The economy of the occupied Crimea

    See first this. I have heard yesterday reports that ATMs and banks are running out of cash - no surprise considering that they were fed by other Ukrainian entities which have been mostly cut off. The stock of other goods should also be decreasing. Now that would be something western reporters should pay a close look at.

    More dramatic and harder to solve will be the lack of demand in the tourism sector with it's 6 million overnight stays (IIRC) which one of two pillar of the Crimean economy. Only a quarter from the tourists came from Russia. It is also no surprise that the most often heard question to the speperatist leaderhip in the Crimea was the one about the public salaries. I don't think that that sort of tourists will help much.

    If you see how Crimeans expressing support for Kyiv are often getting treated in front of the camera by the new 'self-defense' forces and pro-Russian protesters or 'tourists', something which seems to get worse, I hardly can imagine that those 40-45% are happy under the Russian boot.

    So the economic mess will likely hit most Crimeans badly, and even if massive Russian help steams in I can not see how they run the whole ship efficiently and fairly. In addition those economic problems those who see themselves as Ukrainians first will have to suffer from the Russian occuption.


    Time seems to be working against Putin in those regards.

    P.S: I will take a closer look at the agriculture later.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-04-2014 at 01:50 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  14. #174
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    1,297

    Default

    One finger

    So far not shot has been fired. Till now, as unarmed Ukrainian soldiers march are greeted by Russian soldiers with warning shots.

    It just takes one nervous finger on the trigger, one finger for the first wounded or dead.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-04-2014 at 01:57 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  15. #175
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,189

    Default

    It's probably best to stop reading or watching anything about the conflict for a month or two and then look at it in retrospective.

    All these rumours and speculations smell a lot like entertainment.

  16. #176
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    "Turn left at Greenland." - Ringo Starr
    Posts
    965

    Default

    The situation is already stabilizing.

    From USA Today:

    Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said the United States has been working with allies on a package to "help the Ukrainian government implement the reforms needed to restore financial stability and return to economic growth."

    In a statement, Lew stressed the need for continuing reform in Ukraine: "The United States is prepared to work with its bilateral and multilateral partners to provide as much support as Ukraine needs ... if the new government implements the necessary reforms."
    I am curious to see what these reforms will be. The US package is a stop-gap measure until the IMF deal is completed:

    From NPR:

    In Washington Tuesday morning, the White House said the $1 billion loan guarantee was aimed in particular at helping insulate Ukraine from reductions in energy subsidies. Russia provides a substantial portion of Ukraine's natural gas and U.S. officials said they were also prepared to work with officials in Kiev to reduce their dependence on those imports. The White House said the assistance was meant to supplement a broader aid package from the International Monetary Fund, which currently has officials in Ukraine working with that country's new government.
    The same NPR article states that Moscow has "pulled back its forces" from the border, though I have not see that substantiated anywhere else yet. Penalties against Moscow have included a narrow range of suspensions of technical relationships and trade negotiations. So we are transitioning already into the next phase; the aid package buys Kiev some more time while a final agreement with the IMF is concluded. Depending on the contours of the agreement, it'll put Kiev in a stronger position relative to Moscow. But that also provides an opening for a Crimean secession vote and de facto independence.

    Kiev is in the strange position that it's political sovereignty and territorial integrity are in contradiction; maintaining the current government excluding pro-Russian stakeholders will guarantee the loss of at least Crimea and perhaps other enclaves; but including them to keep Ukraine intact will mean a new government.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  17. #177
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    "Turn left at Greenland." - Ringo Starr
    Posts
    965

    Default

    From Reuters:

    "In principle, we would be ready to consider further steps to release more tranches ... but our Western partners are asking us not to do this," Putin told a news conference in his first public comments on Ukraine in over a week.

    "They are asking us to work together in the framework of the IMF in order to persuade the government of Ukraine, the Ukrainian authorities, to conduct reforms needed to revive the economy," he said. "We intend to keep working in this channel."
    This is what the real battle over Ukraine is about: how to resolve Ukraine's cash problems and therefore subordinate it to East or West. The removal of Yanukovych and the seizure of power by the opposition was a victory for Washington in this regard and I would not be surprised that Kiev is currently receiving the same stern lectures about reform that made Yanukovych balk from the European Union association agreement late last year. The combination of the occupation of Crimea, the revolutionary zeal of the new government that does not include Russian stakeholders, and looming sovereign default all combine to form a wonderful opportunity to push through austerity measures over the objections of the general population. Austerity is painful and deeply unpopular, and economic research suggests that it's not effective in spurning growth (but that's not what austerity is about). It will be interesting to see how far the IMF can push Kiev for reforms and whether the reforms will be politically feasible for the new government.

    The occupation of Crimea and the threat of further force gives Moscow a place at the table, which it did not have immediately after the overthrow of Yanukovych's government. This is a corner that the Kiev administration put themselves in by seizing power despite the 21st February unity government agreement made by Yanukovych with Brussels, triggering Moscow's intervention and the suspension of foreign aid and energy subsidies. As prediceted, Washington communicated to Moscow that the old agreement is not acceptable but Washington did state that it could serve as the basis for a new agreement. I'm willing to bet that the new agreement will include, or at least it should include, new elections for the sake of Ukraine's territorial integrity.
    Last edited by AmericanPride; 03-04-2014 at 04:45 PM.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  18. #178
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    3,189

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    This is what the real battle over Ukraine is about: how to resolve Ukraine's cash problems and therefore subordinate it to East or West.

    And this is where it could get really, really embarrassing.

    The EU is busy with its fiscal crisis management. The people of Germany have no appetite for handing out dozens of billions € in money or guarantees to the Ukraine.

    The U.S. is in domestic deadlock and barely able to get its own strangled budget alive. It cannot hand out this amount of money either.

    This leads to one of the great powers which happened to join that declaration about Ukraine's independence and sovereignty: China. They 'kinda' have this kind of money. In fact, they would barely notice its absence from their accounts.


    "East" may end up meaning something entirely different than you thought of.

  19. #179
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    4,818

    Default Just Follow The Money!

    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    From Reuters:



    This is what the real battle over Ukraine is about: how to resolve Ukraine's cash problems and therefore subordinate it to East or West. The removal of Yanukovych and the seizure of power by the opposition was a victory for Washington in this regard and I would not be surprised that Kiev is currently receiving the same stern lectures about reform that made Yanukovych balk from the European Union association agreement late last year.
    Yes! That is why Putin is such a dangerous man right now. He is going to lose control of the pipelines which will disrupt his "Eurasian Prosperity Plan."(Halford Mackinder style) He doesn't like being a victim of what he views as the Western Wall Street Gang Tactics (financial manipulations to cause the Ukraine to fail) so he is responding with his own gang tactics.

    This is not a War in the making it is a crime in progress!!!
    Last edited by slapout9; 03-04-2014 at 08:58 PM. Reason: spelling stuff

  20. #180
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Durban, South Africa
    Posts
    3,902

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jcustis View Post
    If there is anything I learned from studying up on foreign policy in college, and being an instrument of it for over twenty years, it is that Americans have got to get over this fetish for playing zero sum games.

    We can't seem to help ourselves as we clamor over which president is weak vs. strong, who is winning the confrontation, and how this is proof of weak foreign policies. This current drama is bringing out the kooks like usual (e.g. McCain), and good lord they are on the embarrassment train with their one-dimensional, one layer deep understanding of the situation.

    It's sickitating.
    McCain?

    I don't follow McCain that well but I guess you missed this back in 2008:

    http://www.c-span.org/video/?c448597...n-talks-crimea

    "This whole thing has got a lot to do with Ukraine, Crimea, the base of the Russian fleet in Sevastopol. And the breakdown of the political process in Ukraine between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko is a very serious problem," McCain said. "So watch Ukraine, and let's make sure that we -- that the Ukrainians understand that we are their friend and ally."
    Pity all the 'smart guys' were not listening.

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 457
    Last Post: 12-31-2015, 11:56 PM
  2. Replies: 4772
    Last Post: 06-14-2015, 04:41 PM
  3. Shot down over the Ukraine: MH17
    By JMA in forum Europe
    Replies: 253
    Last Post: 08-04-2014, 08:14 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •