Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[Dayuhan]

African governments and the African public are not as interested in the relationship between US corporations and the US govt as they are in who is most likely to bring in the investment that will provide them jobs.

I'm sure they are, but neither American corporations nor the US Government have any obligation to provide jobs and investment to anyone. Nations who wish to attract investment have to seek it out and adjust their own policies and practices to make themselves attractive investment destinations. Investors don't compete for the opportunity to invest, nations compete to attract investors. Nations that delude themselves into thinking they're the belle of the ball and all the investor boys are going to come begging them to dance with no effort on their part will end up spending a lot of time an the edge of the dance floor, and at the end of the night the only guy who comes round is likely to be the sleazy date rapist with a roofie in his pocket.

Of course it's easy to blame investors for not investing and creating jobs, and that makes everyone feel good and diverts responsibility from where it belongs... but anyone who really wants investment and jobs needs to take action locally, not whine about what someone else is or isn't doing.

This may be selfish, myopic and uninformed, but it is just the way things are. And if the US was in a similar situation, Americans would feel the same way.

Very true, but how is that any of our business? How Africans feel is not our problem.

Just like corporations compete, nations compete. At this point in time, China Inc has certain advantages over US Inc in Africa.

Why would we want to compete with the Chinese for the dubious privilege of getting involved with that mess? There will be exceptions, but for the most part we're better off letting them deal with it. It's not as if African investment is somehow analogous to oceanfront real estate, something everybody desperately wants to be involved with.

If the US government thinks that the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act hinders the competitiveness of US businesses in Africa - well, that's the State Department's call.

State has nothing to say about it. It's a law, passed by Congress and signed by the President. Congress could repeal it, but there's close to zero chance of that happening in the current political environment.

I accept that AFRICOM training may not have been responsible for Mali's coup, but it isn't that difficult for enemies of the US (and they are quite a few) to suggest that there is a link between the two. Secondly, the Congolese Army also claims to be AFRICOM trained - and it also fell like a pack of cards in the face of M23 rebels.

No matter what the US does or doesn't do, enemies of the US will find ways to suggest that everything bad that happens anywhere is somehow a consequence of US action or inaction. Many people will believe it. That is given and irreversible. It's been that way for so long that most of us have become impervious. If we blamed ourselves for everything we're blamed for we'd either commit physical suicide or the intellectual suicide of joining the Chomsky faction of the left.

A good foreign policy should limit the number of unforced errors. Presently there are just too many unforced errors for anyone to conclude that US policy is wise.

If anything that goes wrong after engagement with the US is going to be seen as a US error, we have to either stop engaging or ignore those perceptions. Anyone who thinks a few months of US training will make an army function or that US engagement is going to transform dysfunctional nations is barking at the moon. Again, if engagement is going to create irrational expectations, the choices are to stop engaging or ignore the expectations and live with the blame from those who hold them. Living up to the expectations is not possible in the real world.

Finally, I don't really care - I've seen the writing on the wall. Whatever the US does or doesn't do will have very little impact on the future of my generation of Africans.

I wish more people realized that.

[Ken White]

I wish more people realized that.

It's important that a lot of folks understand that your choice "realized" as opposed to 'thought,' 'believed' or some other nebulous word or phrase is appropriate and quite accurate.

All we can do there is make things worse.

[KingJaja]

Dayuhan,

Thanks for your kind response.

I just need to point out that it is always the US government, US news media and US academics who fret the most about the US losing its competitive edge to the Chinese in Africa.

The average African is not that interested about the relative standing of the US with respect to the Chinese in Africa.

Secondly, over promising and under delivering (or creating the impression that you can/will do more than you are actually willing/capable of doing) is never a good foreign policy. (E.g. Obama's speeches in Cairo and Accra, which in hindsight look a bit like a lot of hot air).

If the US kept its message as simple as you did, Africa would be a lot better off for it.

[Dayuhan]

I just need to point out that it is always the US government, US news media and US academics who fret the most about the US losing its competitive edge to the Chinese in Africa.

The US government, media, and academics do an unbelievable amount of fretting over an extraordinary number of things. Any given fret-set in isolation might seem large, but has to be evaluated against all the others. If you made a hierarchical ranking of all the things they fret over, I'd guess that losing out to the Chinese in Africa would be way down the list.

The average African is not that interested about the relative standing of the US with respect to the Chinese in Africa.

The average American wouldn't have the slightest idea what we're talking about.

Secondly, over promising and under delivering (or creating the impression that you can/will do more than you are actually willing/capable of doing) is never a good foreign policy. (E.g. Obama's speeches in Cairo and Accra, which in hindsight look a bit like a lot of hot air).

All political speeches are hot air... but it is true that politicians who give speeches outside the country should be more aware of the fact that there are those who haven't figured that out yet.

If the US kept its message as simple as you did, Africa would be a lot better off for it.

I don't know if Africa would be better off, but I suspect that the US would be. We will never know, because I'm never going to be the one defining the message!

[davidbfpo]

Clint Watts comments on the reported disunity amongst the Islamist rebels:

Well, it looks like more money and fighters has led to more conflict than unity in AQIM. Analysis suggesting more of any one terror group input (Weapons, money, fighters, etc) will lead directly to a stronger collective whole (AQIM) naively ignores the one thing that is most difficult to quantify and analyze: Human nature.....

Across al Qaeda’s global footprint, decentralization has led to there being more incentive for affiliates to compete than cooperate. With Bin Laden’s death, donors spread their funds more diffusely and local affiliate illicit revenue schemes must increase. Ultimately, this change leads to al Qaeda affiliates with waning allegiance to al Qaeda Central.

Link:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=840

Thinking about this I wonder how distant onlookers, even sympathisers, will react to such groups becoming more like robbers, than fighters. Distant feelings of legitimacy and possibly sympathy are nothing compared to the local reaction.

[davidbfpo]

Based on a Time report a month ago (Post 187) I noted:

Buses to the north are now packed, filled with refugees no longer willing to wait out the now quiet conflict far from home. Their departure has left refugee camps at a fraction of their original size, say local officials.

A month appears to be a long time if this report in The Guardian is to be believed:

Mass rape, amputations and killings – why families are fleeing terror in Mali; At refugee camps, reports are flooding in of horrific human rights abuses in a country once famous for its music and joyous lifestyle.

The tales recounted suggest a population subjugated by a regime well versed in appalling brutality. Allegations of war crimes include summary executions, mass rape, racism and the targeting of elders by child soldiers recruited by the extremists. Some allege that child soldiers are being forced to rape women.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...ali?CMP=twt_gu

Anyone able to comment on the social implications and possibility of 'child soldiers'?

[davidbfpo]

Once an apparent pillar of democracy in West Africa, Mali has drastically deteriorated in 2012, with a coup bringing down the elected government in March and a combination of armed groups taking over vast areas of the desert north soon thereafter. Those areas remain under the control of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, Ansar Dine, MUJAO and the MNLA, while a shaky interim government in Bamako seems to make little progress. Discussions are underway for the intervention of a regional force that will assist the Malian army in retaking the north, but there are many unanswered questions about the emerging plan. This panel will discuss the root causes of Mali's instability and strategies for addressing those causes that can contribute to long-term peace and stability.

Link:http://www.usip.org/events/crisis-in...es-and-options