Afghanistan troop surge could backfire, experts warn

[MSG Proctor]

I was never there and don't intend to change that - but wasn't there some kind of tribal thing and community leaders being relevant?
I remember stories about how Afghan warfare is basically about a show of force to enlist local forces into one's army. That explained pretty well the volatility there.

This "mullah" emphasis seems to overshoot the target a bit. I doubt that the mullahs lead troops.

You have inadertantly identified our achilles heel. You doubt that Mullahs lead troops.

1. In COIN, tactical success means little without population buy-in. Kill all the insurgents you want - until you get the CoG and the IO pieces right, you'll be playing whack-a-mole and creating more insurgents.
2. Tribal sheikhs will not go against the Mullahs. Period.
3. Many Mullahs are in fact tribal leaders and wield significant power to marshall militia forces.
4. The enemy knows the religious leaders are the #1 sphere of influence and works hard to engage them with anti-CF IO themes.
5. Even Mullahs that do not possess direct militia authority influence everything that goes on in every tribe, neiborhood and village via the Friday afternoon sermon. Failure to grasp the legitimacy, significance and relevance of the Friday Mosque sermon is IO suicide.

@Rex: COIN is about legitimizing the GoA in THEIR eyes. Build all the roads, hospitals, wells, clinics, schools and military outposts that you want - but whoever defines Islam wins. Our work is not to intercede in the crossfire between Islamic theological poles - but to ascertain, understand and articulate what the religious leaders think is legitimate and support them in our IO. As long as the enemy engages the mosque and we don't, our 'secularizing' influence will be portrayed across Afghanistan (and the greater Islamic world) as a threat to Islam thereby serving as the optimal recruiting tool for more Hirabists and insurgents from Pakistan and other points of origin.