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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bourbon View Post
    This is true if the nation is not trying to receive or readjust a loan from the International Monetary Fund or World Bank. If they are trying to receive or readjust a loan, that prerogative can become a condition for structural adjustment.
    The ability of the IMF to enforce such conditions has always been questionable. Since the Chinese came on the scene offering loans and grants untied to domestic reforms that ability has been eroded even further. Chinese financing is of course directly tied to Chinese perceptions of their own interests, but that hasn't generally been a problem in coming to what might politely be called mutually satisfactory agreements with African elites.

    The days when the IMF/WB clique could dictate policy to African nations are long gone. That may not be any great loss, as the attempts to impose policy were generally cheerfully distorted by African elites for their own benefit and the consequences for the populaces involved were less than wonderful, but it remains to be seen whether the new evolution will improve anything. I am not optimistic.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    The ability of the IMF to enforce such conditions has always been questionable. Since the Chinese came on the scene offering loans and grants untied to domestic reforms that ability has been eroded even further. Chinese financing is of course directly tied to Chinese perceptions of their own interests, but that hasn't generally been a problem in coming to what might politely be called mutually satisfactory agreements with African elites.

    The days when the IMF/WB clique could dictate policy to African nations are long gone. That may not be any great loss, as the attempts to impose policy were generally cheerfully distorted by African elites for their own benefit and the consequences for the populaces involved were less than wonderful, but it remains to be seen whether the new evolution will improve anything. I am not optimistic.
    This would be true if Hally Burton or Areva were not strategic industries and companies. If there was a complete cut between politic and economy. This is not the case...

    Middle classes in Africa are facing a huge difficulty to rise, not because of external investors but because of domestic breaks. what economist call the Hyppo and Sheeta clash (Sheeta as the guepard, not the tarzan monkey). Old click, the Hyppo, do not want a middle class, the Sheeta, to emerge. Why?
    Simply because youth in africa want stability, ROL, protective legal environment, fair taxes and is not willing to pay backshich. So,and I personnaly know some, as they cannot get this at home, and they try, they leave for a place where grass is for real greener: Europ, US, Asia...

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    M-A, Good points !
    And just how do we even begin to turn around four decades of corruption at the middle-class level ? For years they have survived by innovating and cheating, making every cent count. I honestly can't imagine the DRC being able to turn off the last 40 years.

    The huge military machines will not go down without a fight.
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    Council Member J Wolfsberger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    M-A, Good points !
    And just how do we even begin to turn around four decades of corruption at the middle-class level ? For years they have survived by innovating and cheating, making every cent count. I honestly can't imagine the DRC being able to turn off the last 40 years.

    The huge military machines will not go down without a fight.
    The obvious initial goal should be shutting down those military machines.

    And as I started writing about the requirements for making that happen, and begin providing the kind of political environment M-A identifies as necessary, it became obvious what a gold plated bitch that effort would be.

    Based on what I've read, especially from people who post here, at this time it seems as though "Heart of Darkness" was an optimistic view of sub Saharan Africa.
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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by J Wolfsberger View Post
    The obvious initial goal should be shutting down those military machines.

    And as I started writing about the requirements for making that happen, and begin providing the kind of political environment M-A identifies as necessary, it became obvious what a gold plated bitch that effort would be.

    Based on what I've read, especially from people who post here, at this time it seems as though "Heart of Darkness" was an optimistic view of sub Saharan Africa.
    John,
    I'm intrigued and had no idea you were working on that. What does the Reduction In Forces look like ? Which brigade do you start with and how many ? Does the RIF include employment ? One of the things the DRC is probably still trying to figure out is where all their firearms and ammo are (not as if they ever knew). As you may already know, when Tom and I were there together, the RIF notion came up several times. While we certainly got a good laugh at the prospect, DOS was in fact serious. Who, exactly would have the honor of presenting this along with the democracy package was another matter. Civil war and the refugee crisis saved many the chance of explaining the plan to Uncle Mo.

    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    The trick in Rwanda and Uganda has been to convert all the idiots that lurk in the army into PMC watchmen. That would not work in DRC, that we both know. But there are solutions, many soldiers want a job, a real one with a pay at the end of the month that give them enough to eat, get drunk and send children to school. They actually do not want to stay in the army.
    M-A,
    We tossed that notion around with UN deminers in the East. They certainly had far better wages and their daily duties were actually contributing to the country. But, as soon as the team members left, the demining mission came to a halt (even though they were still getting paid). So after nearly 6 months of training, free equipment and a good salary, there is little to show for. Someone actually thought we should have offered a pension or something to sweeten the pot. I almost died when I fell off my chair

    I do however agree, that when the foreign instructors were there in the 80s, there were far fewer problems with soldiers. But then, most of us (the military instructors) didn't really know nor notice what was really taking place.

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Just a question. Can an argument be made for sub-Saharan state(s) being 'better off' without known natural resources being exploited?
    Hey David,
    I don't think it's that cut and dried. In the case of the DRC, natural resource revenues never made it to even the hospitals and schools. Strangely, all the while organizations like USAID were pouring money into those projects and the Peace Corps were busy teaching people how to make fish ponds.

    I actually don't have a good example where natural resources benefited the entire population (unless we count digging for it as an occupation).
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    Council Member J Wolfsberger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    John,
    I'm intrigued and had no idea you were working on that. What does the Reduction In Forces look like ? ...
    I'm NOT working on that, and I don't think anyone could offer me a salary to do so that would come close to tempting me.

    "... writing about the requirements ..." meant writing for the post above. The issues you raised are just the start, which is why I said the problem would be a GPB.
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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by J Wolfsberger View Post
    I'm NOT working on that, and I don't think anyone could offer me a salary to do so that would come close to tempting me.

    "... writing about the requirements ..." meant writing for the post above. The issues you raised are just the start, which is why I said the problem would be a GPB.
    Jeez, talk about embarrassing
    And here I thought you had gone and finished the product. I had visions of selling it to M-A
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    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    M-A, Good points !
    And just how do we even begin to turn around four decades of corruption at the middle-class level ? For years they have survived by innovating and cheating, making every cent count. I honestly can't imagine the DRC being able to turn off the last 40 years.

    The huge military machines will not go down without a fight.
    Well, if you first take all exCNDP to ICC then all the Mayi-mayi that are dummer than my @$s out... (May need some accidents having to happen...) You may have a pretty thine army that DRC gov can afford.

    The trick in Rwanda and Uganda has been to convert all the idiots that lurk in the army into PMC watchmen. That would not work in DRC, that we both know. But there are solutions, many soldiers want a job, a real one with a pay at the end of the month that give them enough to eat, get drunk and send children to school. They actually do not want to stay in the army.

    Same with South Sudan. people enter in the SPLA cause it's the only way to do business. But if you actually take out all the SPLA who are alcoolic then you end up with less than a handfull of good guys.

    The problem of regime with huge armies in Africa is that they have it because they cannot afford either to have a good army or to buy peace spoilers. So they give them a title and the right to conduct illegal activities under the protection of a uniform.

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The 'dark' continent

    I am not an Africa "hand" and my comments are based on watching the continent from my "armchair". Plus a couple of encounters whilst visiting South Africa.

    The theme of exploitation of Africa's natural resources is not a 'silo' and certainly from a UK perspective has been in parallel with arguments over multinational corporations (MNC), international aid, government aid, non-government aid (often via NGO's, who get a large % of state funding), international finance, world debt campaigns and the list goes on.

    A few years ago now there was a loud debate between economists over the value of aid full stop; alas names now lost. Read Paul Collier's books.

    Only last week I read this point of view (not solely on Africa):http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/al...-charity.thtml

    Thirty years ago I met a South African journalist, who had travelled throughout the continent and she stated firmly "The West has written off this continent, except for exploiting it's natural resources. It has no strategic interests here and the West never did understand Africans".

    To this "brew" add AIDS. On my last trip to South Africa the devastating impact on Botswana, the African "showcase" for 'good' exploitation of natural resources (diamonds by a MNC), good governance and peace was widely described as imploding under the pressure of the epidemic.

    Just a question. Can an argument be made for sub-Saharan state(s) being 'better off' without known natural resources being exploited? The linked article refers to Somaliland and on a quick reflection I'd refer to former Spanish Sahara.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post
    youth in africa want stability, ROL, protective legal environment, fair taxes and is not willing to pay backshich
    Ironically that's also what the western multinationals want... ironic because so few people would expect African youth and western corporations to have overlapping interests.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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