Agricultural Component of the Afghanistan Surge?

[Steve the Planner]

Pol-Mil:

Thanks for the key points on water---study first, drill well second.

As a September 2, 2009 US News & World Reports article indicates:

"KATMANDU, Nepal—Effects of climate change including the melting of Himalayan glaciers threaten water and food security for more than 1.6 billion people living in South Asia, according to a study released Wednesday.
Click here to find out more!

India, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Nepal will be most vulnerable to falling crop yields caused by glacier retreat, floods, droughts and erratic rainfall, said the study financed by the Asian Development Bank."

http://www.usnews.com/science/articl...t-in-asia.html

The background glacial, climatic, AND Demographic issues all play against the idea that agricultural sustainability, let alone, expansion, is a viable option. It is a Zero Sum Game (if one wins, it is at the expense of another), but with a pervasive background decline rate (30 years of, in general, greatly decreasing rainfall, high rate of population growth, etc...).

Pop growth alone is expected to double in about 20 years. Against that reality, crop and ag failures, and subsequent farm abandonments (rural to urban flight) are givens. Any policy or efforts that don;t recognize that are short-sighted.

From my recent demographic, geographic research, the more I find, the more it points to the fact that the "old" rural afghan way life is, independent of politics and war, under great pressure (an endangered species). Without serious resolution of ag sustainability and water politics, the current conflict between urban/rural has just begun, and I wouldn't be betting on the rurals (history is against them).

Opium, of course, is a crop of last resort for some local farmers, anyway. Too many successive crop failures got them there in the first place.

In the meantime, the sooner we avoid short-term fixes like well-drilling until we understand the bigger system implications, the sooner we do less harm.

Steve

[Surferbeetle]

Sistan Basin

The Sistan Basin is an inland endorheic basin encompassing large parts of south-western Afghanistan and south-eastern Iran, one of the driest regions in the world and an area subjected to prolonged droughts. Its watershed is a system of rivers flowing from the highlands of Afghanistan into freshwater lakes and marshes and then to its ultimate destination: Afghanistan's saline Godzareh depression, part of the extensive Sistan terminal basin. The Helmand River drains the basin's largest watershed, fed mainly by snowmelt from the mountains of Hindu Kush, but other rivers contribute also.

For more than 5,000 years the Sistan basin has been inhabited by sophisticated cultures and thus contains some key archaeological sites. The Shahr-i Sokhta, or "Burnt City", in Iran, built in 3100 B.C. near a currently dried-up branch of the Helmand River, was abandoned one thousand years later, most likely due climate changes that altered the river course. Kang and Zaranj in Afghanistan were major medieval cultural hubs, now covered by sand. Here, signs of historical irrigation systems, including canals, are still visible in the Dasht-e-Margo and Chakhansur areas while elsewhere canals are filled with silt and agricultural fields buried by shifting sand. Today the area is sparsely populated.

From the UNEP: History of Environmental Change in the Sistan Basin

The annual precipitation in the lower Sistan basin is about 50 mm (WAPCOS 1975).

Prolonged droughts - when the rivers fail to bring sufficient water to fill up the lakes and wetlands, and hence supply the irrigation-based agriculture - have occurred in the late 1960s, mid-1980s, and between 1999 and 2005. The last drought was exceptionally long, transforming the lakebeds into barren desert. The summers in the region are characterized by the infamous '120-day wind': by the end of the season, windblown sand originating from the lakebeds covers the surrounding villages

From Explorations in Turkestan: with an account of the basin of eastern Persia by Raphael Pumpelly, William Morris Davis, Ellsworth Hunting

[Steve the Planner]

Beetle:

Now, you are getting into desertification---a real exercise in trying to hold back the tide...

http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=86864

All these nice, well-meaning civilian ag folks....

Steve

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Abu M, the link contains a short TV clip on an agricultural team of Missouri NG advisers; note the last project on building dams gets a mention and nothing on what happened: http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawam...ent-teams.html

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Water issues have featured here and this is a neat summary, with links for those who delve further:http://defenceoftherealm.blogspot.co...ent-blues.html

As always the "sting" is at the end and rightly challenges the belief development aids COIN / FID etc:

In can be no coincidence that this and the other areas in the Helmand Valley which have had the most expensive and prolonged "development" in the whole of Afghanistan are now the major poppy-growing areas in Helmand, and the seat of the Taliban power.

[davidbfpo]

From The Spectator: http://www.spectator.co.uk/business/...slinging.thtml

Includes a marble factory, ice factories and more. Plus as ever criticism of the ANP for bribery and violence.

[Surferbeetle]

From the Telegraph by Sally Williams: Charity appeal: bringing water to Kenya’s drought-ridden valleys

A sand dam is a reinforced-concrete wall built across seasonal river beds, 2-4m high and up to 90m across. A pipe is built into the dam, and over one to three seasons the dam fills with water and then sand, which filters the water through the pipe. The sand behind the dam sucks up the water like a sponge, acting like a water tank on a grand scale, storing, filtering and protecting the water from evaporation. People can then dig for water in the sand (just as you dig a hole on the beach) or collect it from the pipe in the dam wall. Without a dam, rainwater in this part of Kenya cascades downstream and washes away into the Indian Ocean.

Maddrell says sand dams, which have been around for 2,000 years, are a simple and cheap way to conserve water – each dam costs about £8,000 to build, providing fresh water for a community for up to 50 years for roughly £7 a head. In this part of Kenya, 65 per cent of people do not have an adequate supply of clean water. Since 2002 Maddrell’s charity has built 200 dams over 15,000 sq km, from the hills of Machakos, a district near Nairobi, to the flatter, more arid lands of Makueni and Kibwezi to the south.

[Steve the Planner]

Beetle:

This article is a little tough going (English as second language compounded by academic archeo-jargon) but it ultimately tells a great tale about old Sistan Lakes and Helmand River Valley---back to Alexander, and before that, Gotama (The Buddha). Puts him there and in Iran, and paints interesting potential connections between Indian culture, Iran and Iraq. Very interesting.

http://www.ranajitpal.com/dream.html

Steve

[Surferbeetle]

From Leah Farrall's Blog All Things Counter Terrorism Abu Waild's Second Response

In the same session the subject of the need for the Emarah to obtain money to rebuild Afghanistan was discussed because the rejection of the American oil offer which Pakistan passed meant that the Emarah would not have the most important source available (and that was 15 million dollars the Emarah can get once only and that is forever!!!).

One of the hawks at that session (and he was al Masri) told the Emarah delegate sent by Mullah Omar: you should build your country using opium revenues. And compared it to countries like India which sells opium by the billions to world pharmaceutical companies. The Emarah did not adopt the suggestion despite Mrs Farrall saying that “the Egyptian” had the ear of Mullah Omar.

From the USMA's CTC Abu'l Waild

[Steve the Planner]

Beetle:

The latest on Iraq:

http://www.grist.org/article/2009-12...hreat-to-iraq/

Same stuff as Afghanistan's bigger patterns go to later.

Steve

[Surferbeetle]

Steve,

Appreciate the link, it's an interesting article.

Martin Chulov: Jounalisted profile, Guardian profile

[Surferbeetle]

From WaterWiki.net

Salinity control entails a combination of measures aiming at the prevention of soil salinization, or aiming at the reclamation (also called improvement, rehabilitation, remediation, recuperation, amelioration) of salty (saline) soils to ascertain sustained crop yields unaffected by salinity problems and an excessive salt content of the soil.

Salty (saline) soils are a common feature in irrigated lands of the (semi)arid regions and have poor to no crop production. The problems are often associated with the occurrence of high water tables, indicating a lack of natural subsurface drainage to the underground owing to: (1) insufficient transport capacity of the aquifer or (2) lack of free outflow conditions of the aquifer because, for example, the waterlogged area is situated in a topographical depression.

The prime cause of salinization is the fact that irrigation water brought in from the rivers contains salts. All irrigation water, however "sweet", bring salts that remain behind in the soil after evaporation.

The governing principle of salinity control is to establish a drainage system in the affected or to be affected parts of the land (see also Land drainage). The system should permit a small fraction of the irrigation water (about 10 to 20 percent, the drainage or leaching fraction) to be drained and discharged out of the irrigation project.

[Jedburgh]

USAWC, 17 Mar 10: Agricultural Development Teams and the Counterinsurgency Effort in Afghanistan

This paper will explore how the Agricultural Development Teams (ADTs) are contributing to the counter-insurgency and nation-building efforts in Afghanistan by helping to synthesize all elements of national power in those efforts. Agriculture development teams can and should be used to assist and develop counterinsurgency doctrinal concepts. This paper briefly examines the fundamental systemic and operational dilemmas the United States Military faces when attempting to engage in counterinsurgency and nation-building, then proposes the increased utilization of ADTs to better synchronize and synergize all elements of power in Afghanistan....

CALL, Nov 09: Agribusiness Development Teams in Afghanistan

This handbook is a product of the National Guard Agribusiness Development Team Coordination Office with input from current and previously deployed ADTs. It contains information and lessons to assist ADTs preparing for deployment and those already deployed.

Key points covered in the handbook include:

• Unity of effort
• Establishing relationships
• Language
• Cultural influences
• Project selection and implementation