Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[wm]

I don't think MG is a valid comparison insofar that the operation relied upon one axis of attack along one route contingent on the capture of a single bridge across a series of rivers. A Russian operation in Ukraine would be contingent on capturing a range of bridges or fording points instead of risking a single point of failure. I'm sure there's plenty of WW2 examples of massed Soviet operations across rivers.

I used Market Garden to point out how easily one could interdict a narrow avenue of approach. So let's take a look at the terrain in southern Ukraine, over which Russian forces would probably have to move if they had Odessa, Trans-Dniestria, or both as an objective. I do not have decent enough maps available to me to do a good terrain analysis, but here is a little something based on the maps I can get from Google.

A Russian "dash" from Crimea would have to pass through either one of 2 chokepoints. To the west is the wider of the 2, north of Armyans'k on Highway M17/E97. Based on the map I am viewing, the strip of land is about 6 miles wide here, but the map also shows a body of water that splits the neck into two smaller avenues of approach, each about 2 miles wide, with the major hardball running in the western one. The eastern exit from Crimea is the route that the E105/M18 takes north of Medvedivka, crossing 2 bridges over what looks like a 500 foot wide channel--depth unknown.

If the force started from somewhere in Russia, say, east of Donetsk, we need to look a little further north. From the mouth of the Dnieper to Dnepropetrovsk, I counted a total of 8 bridges and the Dnieper in this region is, I think, either too wide for most tactical bridging or the banks are not good enough --too soft, too steep, etc., for temporary bridging or the approach routes to the bridging--the map does not tell me this, but the mouth of many large rivers is pretty silty and soft.

[JMA]

Stan,

Your man Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan saw that the CIA was broken beyond repair back in 1991. Since then nothing has changed.

The Case For Abolishing The CIA

What to replace it with?

Try this

So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent

"I'm just a pharmacist," she said. "Nobody cares about me, nobody knows my name, I don't have a professional reputation at stake. And it's this anonymity which actually gives me freedom to make true forecasts."

Here is the killer punch:

In fact, she's so good she's been put on a special team with other superforecasters whose predictions are reportedly 30 percent better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information.

You can laugh or you can cry.

Mark,
Those exotic civilians spend an enormous amount of time drafting reports that most of us refuse to read (not enough time in the day). They didn't report on a Zairian parachute battalion armed and drunk heading for the capital and even denied it when it happened.

The very same told Tom and I the genocide would last 2 weeks tops

What a load of Sierra. Now that's intel at it's finest hour

We are no longer in an election year, our soldiers are coming home, and not a single normal American will allow the current administration to once again do something that has little to do with us.

I did not vote for Clinton and did not vote for Obama. Don't blame me for this Sierra

[Stan]

Hey Mark !

Well, I registered for the Good Judgement Project

If you are going to be paid for guessing, what the heck ! I'm game too

The problem with the good Senator is with his proposed replacement agency.

In 1991 and again in 1995, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan introduced bills to abolish the CIA and assign its functions to the State Department, which is what Acheson and his predecessor, George Marshall, had advocated. But Moynihan's proposal was treated as evidence of his eccentricity rather than of his wisdom and never came to a vote.

They were being kind when they said he was eccentric

Regards, Stan

[Firn]

As Russia Stumbles, Gazprom Comes Up $910 Billion Short.

“Gazprom is a champion in value destruction,” Ian Hague, founding partner of New York-based Firebird Management LLC, which manages $1.3 billion of assets including Russian stocks, said in an interview yesterday. “It’s not just Gazprom that failed to achieve its goal of increasing market capitalization. It’s Russia who failed. It failed to create an environment where state-owned companies would function as shareholder-owned entities.”

Indeed, it is not so much about market capitalization but mostly the failure to act in the interest of the non-state shareholder. I just want to get a good enough long term return on my investment, not a glorified pawn of Russia's game.

I still think that the Russian' federal balance sheet is strong enough to hold for a considerable amount of time, but the health of the Russian economy is another story and the long-term damage inflicted is already large. Quite few seem to confuse the ability of a state to balance it's budgets in the short term with the strenght of economy in the long run.

[Stan]

Firn,
As bad or as bleak as it looks on paper, the Kremlin has never once hiccuped. Where's the cash ?

Sub-Sahara puzzled the brightest of economic officers at the embassy. How far down into the bottom of the barrel can one go ?

The only people that will feel the effects are the poor and middle class. A little Russian oppression is however good. Well, that's what they keep saying about their own.

They may have lost 910 billion on paper, but there are reports that the Kremlin has mafia cash this year to the tune of 2 trillion and counting in just transit goods.

Even as far back as 1991, Viktor Bout was living proof of a healthy Kremlin and sufficient booty for everyone. Sass (Medvedev) may look like an idiot, but his lifestyle is nothing to sneeze at and Vova will make sure Sass is taken care of. After all, the only people that stand to loose their money are the investors and future recipients of all that gas.

Got to wonder what will eventually happen when that gas runs out and we have steel pipes that circle the globe

[Firn]

Firn,
As bad or as bleak as it looks on paper, the Kremlin has never once hiccuped. Where's the cash ?

Sub-Sahara puzzled the brightest of economic officers at the embassy. How far down into the bottom of the barrel can one go ?

The only people that will feel the effects are the poor and middle class. A little Russian oppression is however good. Well, that's what they keep saying about their own.

...

Got to wonder what will eventually happen when that gas runs out and we have steel pipes that circle the globe

Nobody knows what will happen in political terms in Russia if a recession or even a depression hits the economy. As you said in some instances you are puzzled just how bad things can go worse and worse. Perhaps Putin might endure all political attacks with the large power he has concentrated over the years and with the 'new' enemy at the gates as a culprit to target.

I don't doubt however that his bunch will gobble up their large share even if the whole cake shrinks, as long as they can...

[Dayuhan]

A European perspective. This I thought interesting:

During the Soviet era, Ukraine was handed the task of manufacturing missile parts and helicopter engines. Even today, nearly all Russian helicopters fly with engines 'made in Ukraine.'

http://www.dw.de/ukraine-battling-ov...get/a-17537970

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan--you hit something that has become apparent in the Interfax/TASS press releases over the last four days.

There has been an ever increasing drum beat of articles threatening the Ukraine if they leave the CIS and if they back away from their defense industrial contracts/ties with Russia.

It is not just the 700m USD alone in defense contracts just with China that the Ukraine has it is also the cheap grain and meat products Russia has been getting under some every strange trade agreements worked out with the previous president that were extremely favorable towards Russia price wise---which from a Russian consumer point of view who is currently struggling they fear losing.

For a country that boasts that it has deep foreign currency pockets Russia is economically panicking and it is becoming more and more apparent in the press releases if one takes the time to work through them on a daily basis. The press releases info wise are all over the map as they try to create this "image" of "deep pockets" and the sanctions "are not hurting".

Really worth a doctorial thesis on mis/disinformation operations.

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting Foreign Policy article read regardless of what one thinks of the writer who is currently at the Tufts Foreign Policy School together with the recent former US NATO Commander. Actually an odd match.

Probably one of the most correct articles written lately on Putin---the writer rarely minces words since his encounter with Russia in 2008 and if anything he fully understands just how the West reacts to/OR does not react to Russia invasions of smaller eastern European countries.

The second paragraph is the most interesting for it's accuracy since Kiev reported yesterday the 5th that they had arrested a provocation team of 15 with a massive amount of weaponry and they were going to attack and hold a key government building in eastern Ukraine---seems like the Ukrainian SBU is now for the time being defending the Ukrainian government/people after initially supporting the former Ukrainian president. This is the second group picked up in massive arrests in the last week.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._ukraine_putin

[Stan]

An interesting Foreign Policy article read regardless of what one thinks of the writer who is currently at the Tufts Foreign Policy School together with the recent former US NATO Commander. Actually an odd match.

Misha is a character and well spoken. At least when we met in 08. He also knows what it means to be on the wrong side of a conflict with Russia. No suprise that he ended up with ADM Stavridis. They were buds and the Admiral bailed him when he needed it most.

[Stan]

A European perspective. This I thought interesting:

http://www.dw.de/ukraine-battling-ov...get/a-17537970

The USG recently granted all Ukrainians free 90-day visas. Something normally reserved for more advanced pro-Western states. Kind of way of telling them we care

Most of the Ukrainian exports here are wood and charcoal. Ironic, because once processed, are sold to most of Europe with bags made in China

I gotta love the Russian perspective herein however. Dismiss what doesn't fit and embellish on what does. First it was Poland and all the polish sausage was literally banned from importation. Then the Georgian red wines and spring water, and now, helicopter engines

[mirhond]

@Dayuhan

The closest thing to an ideology behind Putin's moves is Russian nationalism.

No, it is not. There is no "Russian nationalism" in Russian politics because there is no concept of "nation" in Russian politics. The wery term "nation", especially in the form of "Russian nation" is banned in political vocabulary - you'll not find it in any official document ever. There are some vague terms like "Russian people" or "Russians" in use, but it correspond more with ethnicity, not with nationality.
So, there are no ideology behind Putin's moves, only sheer lust for power.

[OUTLAW 09]

Stan---reference the article where he talks about a government building taken---from today in eastern Ukraine there was a proRussian demo supporting the Berkut who were arrested---they seized a building and Ukrainian riot police are moving in.

As being reported today in Russia by TASS.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/726699

[Stan]

Outlaw,
A very familiar setting just a few years back in little Tallinn

From Russia, ‘Tourists’ Stir the Protests

DONETSK, Ukraine — Around the south and east of Ukraine, in vital cities in the country’s industrial heartland, ethnic Russians have staged demonstrations and stormed buildings demanding a wider invasion of their country by Moscow.

But some of the people here calling for Russian intervention are themselves Russian — “protest tourists” from across the border.

More at the link

Stan---reference the article where he talks about a government building taken---from today in eastern Ukraine there was a proRussian demo supporting the Berkut who were arrested---they seized a building and Ukrainian riot police are moving in.

As being reported today in Russia by TASS.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/726699

[OUTLAW 09]

@Dayuhan



No, it is not. There is no "Russian nationalism" in Russian politics because there is no concept of "nation" in Russian politics. The wery term "nation", especially in the form of "Russian nation" is banned in political vocabulary - you'll not find it in any official document ever. There are some vague terms like "Russian people" or "Russians" in use, but it correspond more with ethnicity, not with nationality.
So, there are no ideology behind Putin's moves, only sheer lust for power.

mirhond---this might to a tad beg to differ with your idea that the term nationalism is not being used when in fact "nationalism" has driven Russia since Czarist days---yes it might not be an actual word in the language which I beg to differ but in actual reality Russia has always been driven by nationalism.

This article below goes against what you are alluding to with your comment---Putin has no "lust for power" he is in fact driven to power as he is deep into Russian nationalism as that is what anchored his KGB training and his growing up in the Soviet Union---one could argue he is simply a product of the former Soviet Union trying to transition to a Czarist view of "greater Russia".


"There are two ways to talk about a Russian person or thing in the Russian language. One way, “Rossisskii,” refers to Russian citizens and the Russian state. Someone who is ethnically Chechen, Tatar, or Ukrainian can be “Rossisskii” if they carry a Russian passport and live on Russian territory.

Up until now that is how Russian President Vladimir Putin has always referred to the Russian people. Even the rather aggressive pro-Putin Russian youth movement of a few years back, Nashi (or “ours”) — with its summer camps, mass calisthenics rallies, and ugly jeering at opposition politicians — was always careful to use the word “Rossisskii.” While some critics like Valeria Novodvorskaya portrayed Nashi as if it were some kind of updated version of the Hitler youth, the group in fact never took on an ethnic slant.

That all changed on Tuesday. In his Kremlin speech to the two houses of the Russian parliament, Putin made a fateful choice. Instead of sticking to the word “Rossisskii,” he slipped into using “Russkii,” the way to refer in the Russian language to someone who is ethnically Russian. Putin said, “Crimea is primordial “Russkaya” land, and Sevastapol is a “Russkii” city.” He went on to say, “Kiev is the mother of “Russkie” cities,” in a reference to the ancient city of Kievan Rus’. (This reference must have grated on the ears of Ukrainian nationalists; as scholar Andrew Wilson points out, the historiography of Rus’ is fraught with the question of contested national origins.)

When speaking of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin added, “Millions of ‘Russkii’ went to sleep in one country and woke up in another, instantly finding themselves ethnic minorities in former Soviet republics, and the ‘Russkii’ people became one of the largest, if not the largest, divided nation in the world.”

Putin thereby signaled a crucial turning point in his regime. He is no longer simply a Russian statist, an old KGB man who wants to recapture Soviet glory, as Brookings analysts Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy argued in their fascinating 2013 biography.

Instead Putin has become a Russian ethnic nationalist."

Nationalism--and it does not exist in Russia?---come on mirhond ----and by the way nationalism is in fact a form of ideology. Last time I checked there are roughly 11 different forms of nationalism of which four fit Russia perfectly from the Czarist days to Stalin to Putin.

Poet Pavel Kogan described his feelings of the Soviet patriotism just before the World War II:

I am a patriot.
I love Russian air and Russian soil.
But we will reach the Ganges River, and we will die in fights, to make our Motherland shine from Japan to England

mirhond---this Russian poem mirrors to a degree many English nationalist comments that stated "the sun never sets on England".

And there is no nationalism in Russia?

[kaur]

Outlaw, you must read this text and you see how Putin plays with word Russkii. This is Putin's 2012 presidential election manifesto that covers ethinicity question.

http://www.ng.ru/politics/2012-01-23/1_national.html

Try to translate this. I would be very glad, if mirhond could help.

Русский народ является государствообразующим – по факту существования России. Великая миссия русских – объединять, скреплять цивилизацию. Языком, культурой, «всемирной отзывчивостью», по определению Федора Достоевского, скреплять русских армян, русских азербайджанцев, русских немцев, русских татар┘ Скреплять в такой тип государства-цивилизации, где нет «нацменов», а принцип распознания «свой–чужой» определяется общей культурой и общими ценностями.
Такая цивилизационная идентичность основана на сохранении русской культурной доминанты, носителем которой выступают не только этнические русские, но и все носители такой идентичности независимо от национальности. Это тот культурный код, который подвергся в последние годы серьезным испытаниям, который пытались и пытаются взломать. И тем не менее он, безусловно, сохранился. Вместе с тем его надо питать, укреплять и беречь.

In Georgia 2008 Russia used compatriots argument.

http://www.loc.gov/law/help/russian-...0Justification

[mirhond]

That all changed on Tuesday. In his Kremlin speech to the two houses of the Russian parliament, Putin made a fateful choice. Instead of sticking to the word “Rossisskii,” he slipped into using “Russkii,” the way to refer in the Russian language to someone who is ethnically Russian. Putin said, “Crimea is primordial “Russkaya” land, and Sevastapol is a “Russkii” city.” He went on to say, “Kiev is the mother of “Russkie” cities,” in a reference to the ancient city of Kievan Rus’. (This reference must have grated on the ears of Ukrainian nationalists; as scholar Andrew Wilson points out, the historiography of Rus’ is fraught with the question of contested national origins.)

When speaking of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin added, “Millions of ‘Russkii’ went to sleep in one country and woke up in another, instantly finding themselves ethnic minorities in former Soviet republics, and the ‘Russkii’ people became one of the largest, if not the largest, divided nation in the world.”

Putin thereby signaled a crucial turning point in his regime. He is no longer simply a Russian statist, an old KGB man who wants to recapture Soviet glory, as Brookings analysts Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy argued in their fascinating 2013 biography.

Instead Putin has become a Russian ethnic nationalist."

Nationalism--and it does not exist in Russia?---come on mirhond ----and by the way nationalism is in fact a form of ideology. Last time I checked there are roughly 11 different forms of nationalism of which four fit Russia perfectly from the Czarist days to Stalin to Putin.

And there is no nationalism in Russia?

1. As far as you obviously don't know Russian it's OK that you don't understand Putin's references. I'll try to make it clear for you. Sevastopol is "Russkii" city in historical and linguistic sence (even Ukrainian naval officers didn't use Ukrainian language in their natural habitats), after Anschluss it also became "Rossiyskii" city because now it belongs to Russian state.
Term "Rossiyskii" is a bureaucratic schwonk, term "Rossiyanin" (Russian citizen) is strongly associated with ever drunk and blabbering Yeltzin, so Putin just does a most sensible thing - he speaks to public in natural language.
In general you are right - there are some minor changes in political rethoric, even the term "nation" is becoming legitimate, but calling Putin Russian ethnic nationalist means giving him too much credit.

2. Please, abstain from using term "nationalism" in profane way, use it scientifically. Nationalism, in the broadest sence is the mean to create a nation, not just some ideology.

[davidbfpo]

Mirhond, cited in part:

Sevastopol is "Russkii" city in historical and linguistic sence ..., after Anschluss it also became "Rossiyskii" city because now it belongs to Russian state.

Are you sure you really want to use the term 'Anschluss'?

For many, if not all who know that word means something very, very wrong.
See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss

[carl]

Hey Mirhond! You're back! What you/guys been up to? I figure you guys been refocusing your approach and decided you got it right this time. It will be very interesting to see how you do. You're starting out well with your best English writer.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---you amaze at times with these two sentences.

1. As far as you obviously don't know Russian it's OK that you don't understand Putin's references. I'll try to make it clear for you. Sevastopol is "Russkii" city in historical and linguistic sence (even Ukrainian naval officers didn't use Ukrainian language in their natural habitats), after Anschluss it also became "Rossiyskii" city because now it belongs to Russian state.
Term "Rossiyskii" is a bureaucratic schwonk, term "Rossiyanin" (Russian citizen) is strongly associated with ever drunk and blabbering Yeltzin, so Putin just does a most sensible thing - he speaks to public in natural language.
In general you are right - there are some minor changes in political rethoric, even the term "nation" is becoming legitimate, but calling Putin Russian ethnic nationalist means giving him too much credit.

2. Please, abstain from using term "nationalism" in profane way, use it scientifically. Nationalism, in the broadest sence is the mean to create a nation, not just some ideology.


Point 1---there are several comments---many if not all Ukrainians speak Russian and to a degree Russians understand and speak Ukrainian goes as well for parts of Poland and other former Warsaw Pact countries that had "forced" Russian immigration after WW2 in order to establish the Russian language as the "official language" over the then existing national language of a "nation" or what some call imperialism.

By the way a specific form of "nationalism" can in fact be defined by the refusal to speak other languages and to define your language as the "supreme" all powerful language as the only language that is valid much as the Russians in the Ukraine are currently doing.

Sevastopol ---so to argue that the city is a "Russkii" city is like arguing that the Texas city San Antonia is a "Mexican" city as Spanish was the first language being used before American settlers came into the city thus it "belongs" to Mexico is a very simplistic form of nationalism using ethnicity and language to define a "nation" which excludes a number of other reasons a "nation" is formed.

Point 2---Please, abstain from using term "nationalism" in profane way, use it scientifically.

Come on mirhond--- just where did you study? Using "nationalism" is not profane it is in fact a valid political science and international relations term used since the 1800s.

AND when used in political science and international relations discussions it is in fact referring to nationalism as an ideology.

AND again I will use it --Putin is in fact a ethnic nationalist and right now the Russian population is wrapped into a nationalism reminding one of the Czarist days and if not at least the Stalin days. Or are you arguing there is no nationalism currently being exploited by Putin and the Russian elites?

mirhond when you dictate to others on how to use terms be use that you yourself are using them correctly.