Pax Americana, we hardly knew ye

[jmm99]

Some good thoughts here - since I agree with the basic premises :

Imperial compression.

Most wanna-be Empires or quasi empires don't succeed at all. Turkey will be a force with which to reckon but they're unlikely to go beyond a regional bubble. Same applies to Indonesia -- and a couple of others here and there.

Most Empires of real power, OTOH, do have worldwide sway but each has generally had a shorter life than its predecessors. Compression at work facilitated by the ever increasing ease and speed of communication. That doesn't bode well for China -- or India. We were never going to be on top for long, we aren't mean enough -- unless we're badly provoked (and many in the world have by now figured out pretty much where that line is...).

You might expand this into a thesis (I'm half-serious - but neither of us needs a thesis to qualify ).

I think Adam's ref. (going back and founded in Mackinder) has validity. "Pax Americana" (a term I first heard from ny roommate in 1965) never really had a chance. So, more regional powers can be expected in the future.

From my armchair, we will have in the "World":

1. A "Westphalian Era" set of powers that are not "hollow"; they will have real power, but with limitations.

2. A "Post-Westphalian Era" set of non-powers that are "hollow" as "Hell to the Proverbial Christian".

3. A "Dark Ages" set of geographical areas (e.g., Somalia) that are simply in a "State of Chaos" - see, Naji, The Management of Savagery (2006) for an AQ methodology to handle that.

Of course, if I were Mackinder, I would focus on the Western Hemisphere as the "Island Center" ("Pivot Area") - the Atlantic and Pacific littorals being the force projection outliers for US (my typical song and dance ).

I see the future as an "interesting time" (as in the Chinese curse) for me, where "International Law" will be very non-uniform. That situation will be resisted by the I Law pundits because it is contrary to their Brooding Omnipresence in the Sky.

Regards

Mike

PS (to the "older retiree"): All copies of client files (no original documents - I went through a couple of 1000 files) have now been burned or distributed to clients - other than four left which will be shipped or hand delivered.

I am now "quit, finis, etc."

And, Bill Moore (if you happen to read this), all of my suits are garbaged - except for one blue blazer.