And Libya goes on...

[CrowBat]

Judging by news reports, I'd rather suspect a small battalion equivalent is skirmishing near that city. A multi-brigade assault would produce other results.

I said "three brigades in and around Tripoli", of which "large parts" are attacking az-Zawiya.

These three brigades have around 6,000 troops: the population of az-Zawiya is differently reported at between 250,000-300,000 people, majority of whom sided with rebellion, and about 1,000 of whom might be armed (including up to nine T-72s they have captured so far; six of these when part of the locally based battalion of the Kuwelidi "Brigade" sided with them). A single attack on Sunday included 35 T-72s attacking them from the East (Tripoli side), and other 11-12 simultaneously from the West (foreign reporters confirmed the presence of similar numbers of MBTs in the area), plus BMP-1s and ZSU-23-4s. If only 30% of rebel claims can be trusted, they destroyed over 20 MBTs and a similar number of APCs so far, plus caused around 300 casualties to the regime.

I'm really not that good in ground forces, but isn't 35 the usual complement of an armoured battalion equipped with T-72s? Well, at least that sounds rather like slightly more than a "small battalion" in my ears.

The secular assumption smacks of whistling in the dark due to the absence of polling data to the contrary--or whatosever, for that matter.

Yes, there is no polling data, but I trust myself to conclude the uprising in Libya is definitely no "al-Qaida-launched insurgency" aiming at establishing some "Qaliphate", as claimed by the regime and some of the media in the West. The essence is the same like that behind the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, as well as unrests in Algeria, Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere - i.e. the economy, human rights and power-sharing, not religion.

*********

BTW, the regime troops captured by the rebels in az-Zawiya told their interrogators their superiors told them they "must" take that town "by Wednesday". Any ideas why should Wednesday be important?

[TROUFION]

M-A L,

I look at the UN as a tool to provide legitimacy. The UN doesn't do much on its own. It does however in old west terms have the capacity to deputize a military force and provide it legitimacy. Any action taken against Mummaur should if possible be done with UN support in this manner. Again if a duly deputized African force, perhaps Eygptian and Tunisian (maybe Morrocan too), directly supported the rebels against Mummuar and provided forces to liberate Libya, under UN deputization it would work far batter than any US intervention. Nothing would prevent the US from shaping it, helping with SF and $. The more help the rebels can be given to end it fast before Mummuar can recover or other less reputable elements get involved the better.

-T

[RTK]

I'm really not that good in ground forces, but isn't 35 the usual complement of an armoured battalion equipped with T-72s? Well, at least that sounds rather like slightly more than a "small battalion" in my ears.

You're right. IIRC 3x companies of 10, plus HQ tanks. 35 is right around the number of T-72s in a tank battalion under the old order of the battle.

Ken White, a better scout than I, will be sure to correct my math if I'm wrong.

Recall that Qadafi restructured the Libyan army in the 80s to Bde and Bn centric organization because he was paranoid of organized assassination attempts.

[Rex Brynen]

These three brigades have around 6,000 troops: the population of az-Zawiya is differently reported at between 250,000-300,000 people, majority of whom sided with rebellion, and about 1,000 of whom might be armed (including up to nine T-72s they have captured so far; six of these when part of the locally based battalion of the Kuwelidi "Brigade" sided with them). A single attack on Sunday included 35 T-72s attacking them from the East (Tripoli side), and other 11-12 simultaneously from the West (foreign reporters confirmed the presence of similar numbers of MBTs in the area), plus BMP-1s and ZSU-23-4s. If only 30% of rebel claims can be trusted, they destroyed over 20 MBTs and a similar number of APCs so far, plus caused around 300 casualties to the regime.

Excellent details, CrowBat. What's your sourcing on the number of MBTs deployed? KOed?

I'm doubtful about claims of 20 MBT's destroyed, unless they're counting all AFVs.

[CrowBat]

Excellent details, CrowBat. What's your sourcing on the number of MBTs deployed?

I'd say, "all possible". From local contacts and contacts in neighbouring countries (established in course of my research; see here why, as example), to careful scanning through all sorts of media, particularly so in Arab states (there is a small Lebanese newspaper that has a team in Ras Lanoof: they are reporting fantastically detailled info about local rebels).

When all of that is carefully cross-examined, a very good picture comes together: after all I can't afford escort by seven SAS and a helicopter ticket to Benghazi...

Anyway, bellow are two from many photos taken in az-Zawiya at the start of the uprising there. One shows a big gathering of the Local Council during the Friday prayer, on 26 February. I guess all of these people went fighting the regime in the days ever since. Another photo shows one of six T-72s brought to them by the Libyan Army Col commanding the locally-based battalion, who defected to their side.

The good Col and his deputy are meanwhile dead (both KIA during the regime's attack on Saturday) and one of these T-72s (probably the one on this photo, since it's the only one that was ever photographed on the Martyr's Square in "downtown az-Zawiya") was meanwhile shown on an Euronews or RT video, with a 120mm hole in the turret... although the edges of the hole in question were still smoking, I doubt it was there in order to improve the ventilation.

BTW, in the same fashion, one can "confirm" at least seven ex-No.1070 Squadron MiG-23BNs out of 16 reportedly "captured" by the rebels at al-Abrak AB (none was flown since 2006 at least), on 20 February...

[Presley Cannady]

Yes, there is no polling data, but I trust myself to conclude the uprising in Libya is definitely no "al-Qaida-launched insurgency" aiming at establishing some "Qaliphate", as claimed by the regime and some of the media in the West. The essence is the same like that behind the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, as well as unrests in Algeria, Bahrain, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere - i.e. the economy, human rights and power-sharing, not religion.

Isn't picking the rosier of a set of scenarios based nothing more than "trusting yourself" the very definition of whistling in the dark? It's presently impossible to estimate the contribution of religious fanaticism in any of these squabbles, though it is abundantly evident that Islamists stood to benefit--and did, if for no other reason than prisoner releases--in both Egypt and Tunisia. In Egypt, it remains to be seen how Islamists deal with a military leadership historically more hostile to their interests than Mubarak. In Tunisia, where's the downside at all for Ghannouchi and the like?

But if we're going to boiling it down to instinct, then I trust myself to conclude that an Islamic radical with a rifle beats a latte sipping university student with a Facebook wall nine times out of ten.