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Thread: 'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

  1. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    The police has always been under resourced, but the army has always beaten Boko Haram decisively in one on one encounters. Policemen have been known to go AWOL or refuse to put on their uniforms.

    The Nigerian Military is much more competent than the Malian Military.
    Jaja,
    Good point. What keeps BH from going after the military other than shear size and far more firepower ? Playing with law enforcement has been their goal and quasi revenge, but attacking say 85,000 trained troops may be a bit harder than a bunch of cops.
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Said it earlier, by singularly focusing on terrorism, a host of other more complex and interwoven phenomena are not dealt with sufficiently. As it stands, the entire basis for AFRICOM's Trans-Sahara Counter-terrorism Partnership needs to be reconsidered.
    Not to put a damper on your quest for AFRICOM, but the program you are referring to started in 2001 under EUCOM.

    The basis for the TSCTI was little more than a follow-up to the Pan Sahel Initiative (PSI). Supposedly, the US would train and equip a rapid-reaction company in Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. The problem then and now is the partners to include Nigeria blew it when the funds ran out and they were expected to carry the ball and improve their relations in the region.

    The USA blew it thinking we could influence dictators with money and training. What they did was simple...

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post

    Training a dictator's rogue military generally means (that training) will later be used against the very population it was intended to protect.
    Jeez folks, this is not rocket science
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    How much is the Nigerian army expected to do? Contribute to Liberia and Sierra Leone, police Darfur, contribute to Somalia (we are out of that thankfully), police the Niger Delta and fight Boko Haram?

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    When the army is used against the populace. The populace doesn't usually remember that whoever trained the army had the "best of intentions". Especially when the populace is Islamic and the trainers are American.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    What keeps BH from going after the military other than shear size and far more firepower ? Playing with law enforcement has been their goal and quasi revenge, but attacking say 85,000 trained troops may be a bit harder than a bunch of cops.
    Do people in the affected area hate cops more than they hate soldiers? Rebel groups sometimes target police because the populace loathes the police, and killing them wins friends.

    For a group using terror tactics, good cops are probably a bigger threat than soldiers... street level networks and the ability to generate fast intel mean more than firepower in that fight, and good cops have that... of course in most of the developing world good cops are not very common!
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    How much is the Nigerian army expected to do? Contribute to Liberia and Sierra Leone, police Darfur, contribute to Somalia (we are out of that thankfully), police the Niger Delta and fight Boko Haram?
    I couldn't agree with you more and do see your valid points.

    When half of Africa was signing on to TSCTI, most of the former Eastern European nations were doing the same with far smaller assets. Hell, we are still doing "it" and can't afford nor support most of the initiatives with barely 1.4 million people ! There are more disasters than success stories.

    The Nigerian Army is considered to be number 2 on the continent in quality and shear size. A ton of stuff goes along with that prestige and the Nigerian government signs on for things it can't pay for. Is President Jonathan expected to turn all of those promises around into a more realistic approach ?
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    When the army is used against the populace. The populace doesn't usually remember that whoever trained the army had the "best of intentions". Especially when the populace is Islamic and the trainers are American.
    That's the part I hated most.

    There's a great strategy research project by USMC LTC Mary Jo Choate here. She does a great job of filling in the blanks where most of the USG has even begun to comprehend.

    She should have wrote this in 85 and we may have had far less Sierra to deal with (SIGH).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Do people in the affected area hate cops more than they hate soldiers? Rebel groups sometimes target police because the populace loathes the police, and killing them wins friends.
    I can't speak for Nigeria, but in the Congo the military are the rebels and the police are still hated by the populace. I suppose if it was the military that day, that shot a motorcyclist for not wearing a helmet , and it was the military that went on the offensive, perhaps BH would have targeted the military. Obviously targeting an equally armed, trained and far larger foe would be much more difficult that randomly bombing and targeting an untrained (in counter terrorism) police force or church goers on Sundays

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    For a group using terror tactics, good cops are probably a bigger threat than soldiers... street level networks and the ability to generate fast intel mean more than firepower in that fight, and good cops have that... of course in most of the developing world good cops are not very common!
    You'll need a cop to answer that. I don't actually know any good African cops. I can only think like a soldier and only imagine if say a company or two went on a manhunt for BH, there would be a ton of collateral damage and far fewer BH guys around.
    Last edited by Stan; 03-23-2012 at 11:56 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    I can't speak for Nigeria, but in the Congo the military are the rebels and the police are still hated by the populace.
    Communist rebels here used to target the police, not because the police were a threat to them but because their target market had an extreme (and largely justified) dislike for the police. Wouldn't know if that's the case elsewhere, just wondering...

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    I can only think like a soldier and only imagine if say a company or two went on a manhunt for BH, there would be a ton of collateral damage and far fewer BH guys around.
    Far fewer BH guys around, yes... if the companies were looking in the right place, and if the BH guys were still around when they got there. In many places (Nigeria may or may not be different) these operations are often far from secret and it's often not that difficult for the targets to become elsewhere. Then they sit back and watch while the soldiers kick around the locals and get them even more pissed off at the government. If BH has informants in the military or the capacity to monitor troop movements it will be difficult to pin them down like that.

    Again, Nigeria may be different but around here the overwhelming firepower rarely has any real effect. What works (on the rare occasions when it's done) is developing good intel on safe houses, movements, leadership structures etc and moving on individuals and small units before they have a chance to respond.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Morning !

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Communist rebels here used to target the police, not because the police were a threat to them but because their target market had an extreme (and largely justified) dislike for the police. Wouldn't know if that's the case elsewhere, just wondering....
    The police have not shown any noteworthy capability nor energy. Their forensics on post blast barely exist, so each event is like starting from scratch. There will be common denominators which in practice make things clearer and easier. Not CSI Miami, just sound practices and principles the remainder of the world uses.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    Far fewer BH guys around, yes... if the companies were looking in the right place, and if the BH guys were still around when they got there. In many places (Nigeria may or may not be different) these operations are often far from secret and it's often not that difficult for the targets to become elsewhere. Then they sit back and watch while the soldiers kick around the locals and get them even more pissed off at the government. If BH has informants in the military or the capacity to monitor troop movements it will be difficult to pin them down like that.

    Again, Nigeria may be different but around here the overwhelming firepower rarely has any real effect. What works (on the rare occasions when it's done) is developing good intel on safe houses, movements, leadership structures etc and moving on individuals and small units before they have a chance to respond.
    Concur, it will not be that easy and certainly moving around like an ape in the china closet will draw attention and further erode any positive reputation the military may have with the general population.

    However, being persistently hunted and having to constantly be on the watch and move to yet another safe house has some benefit. BH won't be making IEDs or planning while on the go. And each time a safe house is ransacked, there'll be stuff left behind and forensic evidence.

    As far as firepower goes, I was referring more to countering any BH attack than to proactive destruction.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Morning !
    Afternoon in my time zone!

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    The police have not shown any noteworthy capability nor energy. Their forensics on post blast barely exist, so each event is like starting from scratch. There will be common denominators which in practice make things clearer and easier. Not CSI Miami, just sound practices and principles the remainder of the world uses.
    Even with zero forensic capacity they could do it the old fashioned way: work informants into the group and use networks of informants in the areas where the group is active. Find the bomb-makers and the key decision-making and recruitment nodes and go after them. Assuming, of course, that the motivation is there.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    I couldn't agree with you more and do see your valid points.

    When half of Africa was signing on to TSCTI, most of the former Eastern European nations were doing the same with far smaller assets. Hell, we are still doing "it" and can't afford nor support most of the initiatives with barely 1.4 million people ! There are more disasters than success stories.

    The Nigerian Army is considered to be number 2 on the continent in quality and shear size. A ton of stuff goes along with that prestige and the Nigerian government signs on for things it can't pay for. Is President Jonathan expected to turn all of those promises around into a more realistic approach ?
    Jonathan hasn't been as enthusiastic as Obasanjo (a former military man) about throwing Nigeria's weight around. We spent a lot of blood and treasure in Liberia and Sierra Leone and got nothing in return except excessive nitpicking from Western journalists about how crappy our Army is. The response from many Nigerians is "okay, we accept our army is crappy, you can go ahead and get the US Army to do the job!".

    The story is that Tony Blair "saved" Sierra Leone alone and the Nigerian Army had no role whatsoever. We say okay, well and good. Last year, Cote D'Ivoire was in turmoil and Jonathan refused to get involved. I cannot see the Nigerian Army getting involved in Mali.

    Yes, everyone in Nigeria hates the police and attacking the police is merely plucking a low hanging fruit. The army is more respected, because they tend to keep to themselves - they don't walk on the streets everyday, collecting bribes from motorists.

    However, the more the army is brought out on the street, the more it tends to be despised.

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    Every one knows that the Nigerian police is up to par. The problem is that a lot of decision makers like it that way.

    A competent, more professional police force will be much more difficult to manipulate, to use to rig elections, to act as a personal army for corrupt politicians.

    Could Boko Haram result in a reformation of the police force? Yes, but only if politicians have exhausted all possibilities and discovered that the BH problem can only be dealt with by reforming the police. If BH can be dealt with by brutal repression and bribery, the police will be left as is - politicians like it that way and that is the game they play well.

    Reforms will mean entering uncharted territory. Our politicians don't like that kind of uncertainty.

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    Default Nigeria's porous borders

    Al Qaeda will be stupid not to establish a substantial presence in Nigeria. The Nigerian state is a joke.

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    Default Nothing new, but indeed sad..Schools targeted

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/wo...er=rss&emc=rss

    MAIDUGURI, Nigeria — The teenager in the immaculate white robe stood in the ruins of what had been his school. There were no classrooms, no desks or chairs, no intact blackboards — there was, in fact, no longer any reason for him to be there.

    Yet the teenager, Aruna Mustapha, and a friend had come to sign in anyway, just as they did every morning before the fire, expressing a hunger for education and a frustration with the insurgents bent on preventing it.

    “We can’t stay at home any longer; we want to come to school, to learn,” explained Aruna, 16. “I’m fed up. I want to be in school.”
    .......
    In recent weeks, at least eight schools have been firebombed, apparently the work of Boko Haram, the Islamist group waging a deadly war against the Nigerian government and suspected of cultivating links with Al Qaeda’s affiliates in the region. The group’s very name is a rallying cry against schools — “Boko” means “book” or “Western learning” in the Hausa language, and “haram” is Arabic for forbidden — but it has never gone after them to this degree before, analysts say.
    Reminds me of the Swahili proverb that says, "When two bull elephants fight, it is the grass that gets trampled."

    It is the children who are the grass in the case and their future is being trampled into dust.

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    Default Shots Fired by US Embassy in Nigeria; No Injuries

    A knew this would happen, eventually ..........

    The U.S. Embassy in Nigeria's capital says there were gunshots fired near its offices, though no one was injured.

    A statement from the embassy Monday said it "believed there were shots fired" and that police arrested two people afterward. Abuja police spokesman Jimoh Moshood said he had no information about any shooting in the area, nor any knowledge of any arrests.


    Security remains a concern in Nigeria as a radical Islamist sect known as Boko Haram continues a wave of killings across the nation's Muslim north. A suicide car bombing by the sect in August attacked the United Nations' headquarters in Abuja — which sits on the same road as the embassy.
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...0#.T3DFzGEgcmc

  17. #857
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    A bit too soon to distiguish between BH, criminals or even the ordinary citizen.

    Considering how many firearms are listed here for Nigeria, it does not come as a surprise that someone heard gunfire.

    Odd this,

    Security guard at Post 1 of the US embassy confirmed the incident in a telephone interview. The guard, speaking on the basis of anonymity, said gun fire was heard in the vicinity of the embassy and some commotion shortly after.

    He added, however, that the situation has been taken care of and Nigeria police forces are on ground to maintain order. There were no casualties from the attacks, the security officer said.

    Abuja police command spokesman, Jimoh Moshood, told press that he had no knowledge of arrests.
    Not sure if you've ever attempted a conversation with Post One before (Marine Guards that is), but the above is highly unlikely to have taken place.
    Last edited by Stan; 03-27-2012 at 05:31 AM.
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    Stan,

    I have lived in Abuja. One doesn't normally hear gunfire in the vicinity of the US embassy. Also remember that the US embassy is in the same area as the bombed UN headquarters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Stan,

    I have lived in Abuja. One doesn't normally hear gunfire in the vicinity of the US embassy. Also remember that the US embassy is in the same area as the bombed UN headquarters.
    Jaja, at nearly a mile away building to building, I don't know if I could say the embassy is in the same area as the UN building. But, we won't quibble over distances

    Not sure how much stock you have in The Daily Trust, but this recent article sounds a little easier to swallow:

    There was panic at the diplomatic zone in Abuja yesterday after sounds were heard which U.S. embassy officials said were of gunshots fired near the well-guarded mission.

    But the police said there were no gunshots and witnesses said the sounds were of fireworks set off by teenagers at an undeveloped plot near the American embassy.
    Then there's this half-baked Press Release from the embassy (I'm embarrassed to even be an American reading this garbage - waste of paper IMO):

    But, then, a happy and relatively speaking funny ending as quoted:

    A petty trader at the location said in pidgin English, “I hear noise and see smoke; people dey run and I think say na knock out and people say na gun shot, naim I pick my egg roll and Kunu and run too.”
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    Why would teenagers set off fireworks by this time of the year? It is neither Easter nor Christmas. (We don't just set off fireworks for no reason and given the very tense atmosphere in Abuja, I doubt they'd be stupid enough to do that).

    Secondly, nobody accepts what the police say without taking a massive dollop of salt. They have been shown to incompetent (Bomb attacks on Police HQ in Abuja and UN HQ in Abuja). So they are motivated to wish this away.

    Anyway, I don't know, but I strongly suspect that it was a more malign thing than teenagers setting off fireworks. What the police did was most probably to arrest a few passers by and claim they are responsible for setting off "fireworks".

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