Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[JWing]

Outlaw 09

Many of the Iraqi militiamen who were fighting in Syria were shifted back to Iraq months ago. Militias have already been fighting insurgents in Fallujah, Abu Ghraib and parts of Diyala. Early this morning Hakim said that he was sending Supreme Council fighters to support the Defense Ministry. Sadr said he supported people protecting the Shiite shrines which would obviously include Samarra in Salahaddin. IRGC Quds Force Cmdr Gen. Suleimani is in Baghdad right now. They are all gearing up to fight the insurgents started from Samarra down to Baghdad.

[JWing]

Outlaw 09

Assad is an Alawite and despite press reports that is not Shiite. That's like saying Shiite are really Sunnis because they are just an offshoot. Syria was also one of the main supporters of the insurgency for years so saying that Shiite rule in Iraq after 03 created this united Shiite arc from Iran to Iraq to Syria is incorrect. Maliki only decided to back Assad when the civil war started and Islamists started fighting the government. Maliki hated Assad but made an alliance of convenience because ISIS and others were seen as worse, Enemy of my enemy stuff going on.

[JWing]

Here's my lastest story on Musings on Iraq. More ISF collapses in Fallujah and other places. Fighting in outskirts of Baghdad plus Shiite and Iranian mobilization are covered.

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/20...-security.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw 09

Assad is an Alawite and despite press reports that is not Shiite. That's like saying Shiite are really Sunnis because they are just an offshoot. Syria was also one of the main supporters of the insurgency for years so saying that Shiite rule in Iraq after 03 created this united Shiite arc from Iran to Iraq to Syria is incorrect. Maliki only decided to back Assad when the civil war started and Islamists started fighting the government. Maliki hated Assad but made an alliance of convenience because ISIS and others were seen as worse, Enemy of my enemy stuff going on.

JWing

Correct me if I am wrong but yes Alawites are in fact a sect element of Shiaism--even "normal Shia" recognize the sect as Shia, but have a different name for them the last time I checked---and yes both Sunni and Shia did stem from the same Koran and Mohammad until 1400 years ago when they clashed over the successor question and the destruction of Ali. Historically though in say India many Shia thinkers might have been thought to be Sunni and vice versa as they shared similar ideas and world visions, and surprisingly both honor Jesus but simply do not accept him as a prophet. And yes we are infidels but at the same time "people of the book".

So based on 1400 years of infighting and yes using the same Koran they are in fact two different religious groups under the banner of Islam. In some aspects Episcopalians and Catholics are a similar example while both stemming from Catholicism are in fact two different groups after clashing on the question or priests marrying but share a large number of Catholic religious similarities.

If I am also correct yes Syria initially accepted Baathists fleeing Iraq when we arrived based on the Syrians also being Baathists but of a different sect than Saddam Baathists in Baghdad were. I would never argue that the Assad Security Service did allow the Iraqi insurgent open and free movement inside Syria---as long as they maintained a low profile they were "allowed" to exist but it had to be under the radar.

Iraqi's always had to fight to get permits to reside in Syria and usually via corrupt Syrian officials and many did not get them and had to constantly dodge police raids for Iraqi's who would then be pushed back into Iraq---Iraqi refugees that were Sunni had it hard---Iraqi Shia on the other "seemed" to get residence permits/work permits and were not pushed back to Iraq. On the whole Iraqi Sunni refugees and insurgency members did not have it easy in Syria so the yes it "appeared" Assad supported them but the reality on the ground was far different.

Major Iraqi Baathist military officers/State Security types were "allowed" to exist a tad over the radar but that was due to the large amounts of money they had in the Syrians banks and what was flowing to them from other Iraqi supporters and from Jordan.

AQI developed an extensive smuggling system with multiple cutouts inside Syria until they got their fighters to the border and yes if discovered they did end up in prison and torture was not unusual for them. There was no love lost between the then QJBR--AQ in the Land of Two rivers and Assad's security forces.

I would argue Assad "supported" the Sunni insurgency for the core reason- They kept the US busy and off his back as he was not that warm and fuzzy with the idea of the US Army siting on his borders--he and also this perception "they supported Israel" and were boxing in Syria from three sides if one counts the NATO member Turkey.

But Syria while "tolerating" the Sunni insurgency that was tied to the Iraqi Baathist military/state security side was not all that "tolerant" of the QJBR then AQI side even in 2004 and their smuggling through Syria of foreign fighters.

There were in fact a number of AQI members released from Syrian prisons by Islamists when the civil war started---would not call that being "tolerant" towards QJBR/AQI.

Notice Saddam's daughter though did not flee to Syria---rather to Jordan where she has been the guest of the King since her arrival and he has refused to extradite her regardless of US requests which were many.

Understand the enemy of my enemy but global power politics has played a far bigger role in all of this.

[JMA]

I wonder what - if any - warning the US Administration were given by that Keystone Cops outfit known as the CIA?

FP has it here: Jihadist Gains in Iraq Blindside American Spies

Of course if the Administration was given warning of the build-up to this invasion then it reinforces the pattern of indecisiveness observed over a number of years.

[OUTLAW 09]

I wonder what - if any - warning the US Administration were given by that Keystone Cops outfit known as the CIA?

FP has it here: Jihadist Gains in Iraq Blindside American Spies

JMA--anyone with an internet connection and a mouse and a little understanding of key jihadi websites saw this coming since the raids on the Sunni protect camp.

What they did not see was the redevelopment of the Islamic Army in Iraq now the Military Council of the Iraqi Revolutionaries and their linking into the Sunni tribes.

And yes they seem to have again not understood the game being played on the ground by the Sunni resistance. There was during the entire Iraq time a myth that stated insurgent cells would not talk to each other due to OPSEC especially insurgent cells from different insurgent groups and the second myth was that the Sunni insurgent groups rejected working with AQI.

First myth---heck they chatted all the time on their prepaid cells simply because they had friends in the other cells and other groups and had at one time or another prayed together.

Second myth---AQI had the funds along with IAI---AQI would fund the attacks and operations, IAI would plan them and then Ansar al Sunnah would be the lead attack element with the Revolutionary Brigades 1920 being the foot soldiers. Yes AQI did kill some IAI cell leaders over religious politics, but when IAI threatened to go to war with AQI --AQI backed off.

What you are seeing in the Sunni triangle is the interaction between ISIS, The Military Council and the main Sunni tribes---and yes the CIA should have seen it coming. I saw it over two years ago and that was all on open source.

The Sunni's simply now believe they must fight for their rights and that was a given even in 2011.

What is more interesting is the role Turkey will have---they have supported ISIS in Syria and now their Consulate is raided by ISIS.
So I guess even the NSA is not as good as the Snowdon hype makes them out to be.

[JMA]

JMA--anyone with an internet connection and a mouse and a little understanding of key jihadi websites saw this coming since the raids on the Sunni protect camp.

Well then that leads to the deduction that the Administration was once again caught out 'sitting on it's hands' paralysed through indecision.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Outlaw 09

Many of the Iraqi militiamen who were fighting in Syria were shifted back to Iraq months ago. Militias have already been fighting insurgents in Fallujah, Abu Ghraib and parts of Diyala. Early this morning Hakim said that he was sending Supreme Council fighters to support the Defense Ministry. Sadr said he supported people protecting the Shiite shrines which would obviously include Samarra in Salahaddin. IRGC Quds Force Cmdr Gen. Suleimani is in Baghdad right now. They are all gearing up to fight the insurgents started from Samarra down to Baghdad.

Just think - Iranian Quds troops could be fighting to gain control of terrain in Iraq with air support provided by US Drones.

[ganulv]

Just think - Iranian Quds troops could be fighting to gain control of terrain in Iraq with air support provided by US Drones.

I find it difficult to imagine that that would ever occur in a coordinated fashion. If word were to get out – and it would – the political leaders of both sides would have a whole lotta ’splaining to do to their citizens.

[TheCurmudgeon]

I find it difficult to imagine that that would ever occur in a coordinated fashion. If word were to get out – and it would – the political leaders of both sides would have a whole lotta ’splaining to do to their citizens.

The Enemy of My Enemy is My Friend ... or Jihad/ Counter Jihad makes strange bedfellow ...