Turkish Army deploy reinforcements to north Aleppo territory.
What's next?
YPG spox "Assad army and allies reached our Manbij controlled territory, they will not fight us, now the road is open from Mabij to Aleppo".
To block #EuphratesShield from Raqqa and avoid attack on Manbij, YPG will try every trick in the book including an alliance with Assad/IRGC.
Hizbollah's been helping Assad & is on the US Terror list since 1997 yet the US hasn't targeted them. Why?
http://ogn.news/uds/
Turkish Army deploy reinforcements to north Aleppo territory.
What's next?
So, the last Daesh pocket between al-Bab and Dayr Hafer (see the map below) was overrun - by the Turkey-supported FSyA. Nothing left of it.
More importantly: Assadists have reached the PKK/PYD positions further east. With this, we are now going to see very clear 'limits' of the Operation Euphrates Shield.
Namely, while this enterprise is resulting in military advantages for specific parts of the Syrian insurgency, no doubt about this - it is a Turkish-run operation, heavily dependent on provision of fire-support and supplies by Turkey. And, it is an operation undertaken primarily with Turkish national security interests in mind - not those of involved Syrian insurgents.
Crucial between these (Turkish national security interests) is prevention of establishment of a continuous, PKK-controlled 'enclave' in northern Syria along the border to Turkey. Pushing the Daesh away from the Turkish border was 'only' a secondary objective.
I.e. Turkey launched the operation on al-Bab because its interest in this regards happens to be the same like that of insurgents: i.e. prevent the PKK/PYD from capturing al-Bab and force the Daesh out of the town.
...which means that expecting Turkey might start acting in interests of Syrian insurgents 'only', is... 'naive' (to put it mildly).
Clearly, Turkey and insurgents have a similar, common interest in regards of Manbij and 'few other areas further east'. But, that's where this commonality ends: namely, while Turkey might have a similar interest in regards of Manbij etc. like insurgents clearly have, Turkey is not in a position to launch an open 'aggression' on PKK/PYD-held areas, for an entire conglomerate of reasons, including:
- US-support for Kurdish terrorist organization PKK;
- Assadist - and thus Russian - interests, and
- their support for Kurdish terrorist organization PKK.
This conglomerate of reasons makes it impossible for Turkey to launch something like a direct attack on Manbij, even if it should be perfectly clear that Ankara must have immense concerns alone over the possibility of Assadists and the IRGC joining their lines with the PKK/PYD-controlled areas NW of Raqqa, after defeating the Daesh in Dayr Hafer area. Indeed, the Assadists establishing connection with the PKK/PYD in between al-Bab and Dayr Hafer, has made this option completely pointless.
Namely, Turkey is already internationally isolated; it cannot even count on support from its NATO allies. Because of this, Turkey was forced to enter a sort of military cooperation with Russia. This in turn means it must tolerate Assadists and the IRGC too, plus the PKK/PYD's hegemony over most of northern Syria.
Thus, while - from the Turkish POV - not only the PKK/PYD's hold of Manbij, but also the Assadist offensive on Dayr Hafer are a 'threat', the Turks cannot be expected to do anything significant beyond helping secure al-Bab. And with Turks unable to do anything more, I do not expect the insurgents to do anything on their own.
Unless Erdogan decides to go 'all out' against the PKK in Manbij, which I do not expect him to do because he's not in suitable position to do so, this is the end of that enterprise, i.e. the TSK/FSyA are now going to be limited to securing the pocket stretching from Azaz in NW to al-Bab in the south and Euphrates in NE.
'Precisely as expected', following the HTS hit on the Assad-Regime in Homs, the psychotic mass-murderers that are so happily supported by Iran and Moscow, and declared as 'lesser of two evils' by all their possible fans in the West - are 'hitting back' in their typical fashion: by bombing civilians in insurgent-held parts of Idlib and Aleppo governorates (not even in HTS-held areas)...
Few observations in this regards...
Time and again, I see Syrian insurgents, Syrian civilians in insurgent-held areas posting on Twitter and Facebook, but also foreign journalists filling reports in all sorts of online media about 'Russian air strikes', and these hitting this or that. Here one of newest examples by 'nobody else' but Qalat Mudiq.
After analysing all the related reports I can only conclude that, no matter how 'precise' specific air strikes flown in Syria over the last, say, 13 months have been, nearly all of those hitting insurgent headquarters, but especially those hitting hospitals, nurseries, bakeries, etc. have been flown by that 'Syrian Arab Air Force' (SyAAF; meanwhile known as 'Assadist air force' foremost between its own ranks, not to talk about thousands of officers and other ranks that defected from it). Not by Russians.
Despite all of their bragging and PR-nonsense, Russians have so far proven anything but as precise as the SyAAF.
This is likely to take many by surprise. Namely, the SyAAF is generally 'renowned' as neither effective, nor precise or else, and foremost as being beaten by the Israelis at every single opportunity.
Well, sorry, but related affairs are anything but that one-sided. By side the fact that the SyAAF was anything than 'beaten by the Israelis at every opportunity', or that - in the case where it was - there were plenty of good reasons for this happening (curiously, most of these were related to 'commanding practices' and 'political interests' of certain Hafez al-Assad, former officer and pilot of the SyAAF, and then its commander in period 1965-1970), but...
At least since July 2012, there is a handful of pilots in the SyAAF that have shown they can hit with extreme precision - 'even' when flying such... well, actually 'wreckage' like 30+ -years old Aero L-39 Albatross light strikers (actually: training jets), not to talk about fighter-bombers like MiG-23s or Su-24s. Several of pilots in question used to serve in the Yemen Air Force: most of them flew MiG-29s there.
In this regards, let me remind you...
- of insurgent headquarters deep inside Eastern Aleppo hit by L-39s up to four times a day, no matter how often they have been relocated, back in July and August 2012...
- or of that 'famous' air strike flown by a single MiG-23MF, that hit the HQ of the Liwa Tawhid with a single Kh-23 (AS-7 Kerry), radio-command missile, back in October (or was it November?) 2013, killing its commanders and eventually causing its collapse.
Mind just this: as most of readers here should know (or I guess they know), the Kh-23 is one of earliest Soviet-made guided missiles and rather primitive. Most of air forces that ever bought it have trashed it soon afterwards, because it proved too problematic to use. Indeed, it proved as impossible to use under serious combat conditions. Reason is that the pilot of a single-seat aircraft usually deploying it has to guide the missile into the target during its entire flight. For duration of that flight, he's obviously pre-ocuppied with guiding the missile but to fly evasive manoeuvring on his own (indeed: sometimes so preoccupied with this task that some flew their aircraft straight into the ground) - which means that the aircraft launching a Kh-23 is quite likely to get shot down if attacking any kind of a target protected by serious air defences.
In other instances, the SyAAF deployed 'more primitive' methods to score direct hits on insurgent headquarters. For example, the attack that killed Zahran Alloush, back in December 2015 - was flown by two Su-24MK2s, using FAB-250M-62 general-purpose bombs. And: the crews in question were actually underway to hit some other target when the Air Force Intelligence obtained information about Alloush's meeting with commanders, called the crews on the radio, and re-directed them to bomb the place in question.
Similarly, back in December last year, a SyAAF Su-24 killed three top commanders of the FSyA in the Ra'astan-Talbiseh pocket, when bombing the funeral they attended.
Russians never managed anything similar.
Indeed, SyAAF's Su-24s - and not Russians - have flown nearly all of air strikes on different hospitals in Aleppo and Idlib governorates since May 2016. But, because all the Western 'intelligence agencies' are so dumb and so full of prejudice, they have convinced themselves that 'SyAAF can't fly by night and isn't doing so', therefore, they blame the Russians. In turn, Russians have the advantage of 'plausible denial', and can always say, 'it wasn't us' - and then add their PRBS to the story.
Actually, since spring of 2016, the SyAAF also has a unit of L-39s flown by crews trained to deliver precise air strikes by night - usually using B-8M pods for calibre 80mm unguided rockets of type S-8, or their calibre 23mm cannons, but sometimes with 'light' (calibre 100kg) bombs. They are often cited as 'machine-gun-armed jets' in reports by Sentry Syria. These L-39s were involved in destruction of the UN/Syrian Arab Red Cross convoy in Urum al-Kubra, back in October, and they flew the air strike that killed Turkish troops, back in November.
In each case, USA have blamed Russians for their attacks - and, as can be expected, Moscow had it easy to deny being involved. Why should Russians point out it was Assadists that attacked, if Americans are too dumb to find out that the SyAAF is flying by night?
Overall, people should stop gauging culprits behind some air strikes by their precision alone. SyAAF is often striking far more precisely than Russians can dream about. Reason is that it has got far more precise targeting intelligence - simply because there are still so many informants within ranks of insurgency, or at least in areas controlled by insurgents.
...and the other way around: here people say 'Assad cluster bombs'.
The only air force using cluster bombs (i.e. 'cluster bomb units', or 'CBUs') - like RBK-500s - in Syria is the Russian AirSpace Force ('VKS').
There is not a single photo or video of any kind of SyAAF aircraft armed with or deploying CBUs since 2012 (perhaps since 2013, but certainly not ever since).
Means, sorry, but this was a VKS air strike.
CrowBat...one thing about Erdogan..expect him to do the unexpected and non logical .....Originally Posted by CrowBat
BREAKING: Erdoğan: Now that al-Bab has been cleared from Daesh, YPG terrorist-held Manbij is Turkey's next target - @DailySabah
No reports of clashes between #ES, #SDF, #Assad and #ISIS so far today in eastern #Aleppo province.
Tense calm (before the storm?!) ...
BreakingFootage
Intense #Assad regime MiG-23 and Su-24 air strikes on villages in southern #Idlib province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_b2...ture=youtu.be#
Daraa: #ISIS released gruesome photos of around 15 killed rebels at Tell al-Jumou in Western #Daraa. Several were beheaded.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-28-2017 at 03:33 PM.
China joins Russia in protecting the Syrian government's ongoing use of chemical weapons on civilians..
By vetoing today’s resolution, [#Russia & #China] have undermined the credibility of this Security Council.”
Russia has vetoed for the 7th time on #Syria in 5 years.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-28-2017 at 05:17 PM.
Aleppo: #Assad regime will not attack #YPG and the #YPG will not attack the #Assad regime, so both groups blocking each other. #Manbij
Near Manbij today
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-28-2017 at 05:19 PM.
ISIS lost more ground to #Assad and #SDF/#YPG forces west of the Euphrates today.
Red Line Redux: How Putin Tore Up Obama’s 2013 Syria Deal
http://tcf.org/content/report/red-li...13-syria-deal#
…
new report on the politics of poison gas & broken promises
Palmyra: #ISIS shelling pro-#Assad forces west of #Palmyra with a T-72 and mortars today.
Russian newest Uran-9 tracked unmanned combat ground vehicle spotted in Syria
Aleppo: #EuphratesShield offensive to recapture #Tal_Rifaat from #YPG could also start very soon.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-28-2017 at 07:01 PM.
There are simply limits for what 'even' Erdo can do. Attacking US/Russia/Assad/Iran supported PKK is certainly one.
Plus, just imagine all the outcry from Europe: lovely non-religious and pluralist Marxist PKK's thugs are currently 'stars of the war on IS' here - even if ethnically cleansing thousands of Arabs from northern Syria, executing own oppositionals, forcefully recruiting Arabs that don't want to join them (and to whom they promised they would not recruit them), or remaining in Manbij while they - and certain Joe Biden (said to have been some ex-US Vice-President) - promised they would withdraw from there already back in August last year.
Reuters: Syrian helicopters dropped chlorine bombs on east #Aleppo "throughout 2016" - UN
UN Syria Commission
✔
@UNCoISyria
Our specially mandated report on human rights situation in #Aleppo has been released and now online:
http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC...mmission.aspx#
UN states both sides committed war crimes in Aleppo.
New UN report shows Russia lied repeatedly about Syria's bombing of the UN aid convoy
After a #Russian drone followed the @UN convoy west of #Aleppo for hours, #Assad's jets got night vision and targeting to hit it ...
.
Russia lie #2: "hospitals weren't bombed in #Aleppo". #UN disagrees, says airstrikes "repeatedly" struck health-care facilities.
The UN details multiple attacks on M10 hospital, which Russia denied occurred, but @Bellingcat proved did happen
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...spital-syria/#
BREAKING: Incredible. UN says that evacuation deal of #Aleppo - overseen by ICRC - is a war crime. #Syria
Ethnic cleansing is ethnic cleansing simple as that...with or without force.
SyAAF used cluster bombs, OFAB 250 (identified by @CITeam_en and @bellingcat) and anti-personnel rockets to target aid workers.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-01-2017 at 01:48 PM.
Just like we said they would | Away from Iraq’s front lines, the Islamic State is creeping back in#
https://wpo.st/UGVe2
Palmyra: #ISIS detonated 2 SVBIEDs against pro-#Assad forces west of #Palmyra today. Dozens of pro-#Assad forces were killed or wounded.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-01-2017 at 01:41 PM.
FSA News @FSAPlatform
#Infographic || #Syria
Origins of militia coming from across the Middle East to fight for the #Assad regime in Syria.
Kyle Orton
✔
@KyleWOrton
Let it be remembered who was President when #Aleppo was massacred and the survivors expelled by #Assad-#Russia-#Iran without any hindrance.
Obama/Rhodes/Kerry all carry that legacy....
Syria #Assad-forces reached the outskirts of #Palmyra
Turkish-backed #EuphratesShield forces captured #Qarah and #TallTurin from #SDF/#YPG.
Clashes ongoing acc. to both sides.
The UN is now very, very kind: they have released a report by the UN Commission of Inquiry, showing the attack on the UN/SARC convoy near Aleppo was "meticulously planned & ruthlessly carried out" - by (drums) Syrian Arab Air Force -
- thus confirming what I reported 2 months ago in Assad's Nighttime Killers
They are just as usual a number of months late and several hundreds of thousands of dollars short....
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