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Thread: 'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

  1. #201
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    Default This is what our policemen do

    When they are not committing human rights abuses, they collect bribes from poverty stricken Nigerians and share the proceeds after a day's work.



    One begins to understand the level of animosity against the Nigerian police. The army is not far behind.

    The other big news topic in Nigeria is Government's desire to remove the subsidy on petroleum products early next year. If it goes ahead there is potential for strikes and violence.

    Despite the fact that we are Africa's largest oil exporter, we have no fully functional refinery, so government has to subsidise petroleum product importation. Nigeria spends $350 million monthly on subsidising the purchase of petroleum products (the distribution and sales of these products are handled by a cartel of businessmen with links to ex-generals and politicians).

    Petroleum products impact seriously on the economy. Since electricity generation is low, the common man and businesses depend heavily on petrol/diesel driven generators. There is also a trust deficit between Government and the Nigerian people - the Nigerian Government has zero credibility.

    The other news topic that got my attention was the threat by Nigerian veterans to blow up oil pipelines in response to non-payment of pension arrears.

    Members of the Nigerian Military Pensioners Welfare Association (NMPWA) in the South-South region have threatened to blow up pipelines and disrupt the peace of the area if the Federal Government refuses to commence the payment of the 53 per cent pension arrears owed them for four years now.

    In a statement signed by its secretary, Captain Don Pedro, and made available to LEADERSHIP in Port Harcourt, the group said the Federal Government was taking the veterans for a ride.

    It said; “We have been trained in the art of warfare, we have knowledge of combat of any sort, and we can blow oil pipelines in the region and cripple the economy of the nation. We want to say that we can be more deadly than Boko Haram, so we should not be taken for granted.

    “We are seriously disturbed that the federal government would acknowledge early this year that military pensioners are being owed 53 percent arrears only for nothing to be done or heard about it.
    This threat points to a few uncomfortable facts:

    1. The currency of power in Nigeria is money and violence, you use one to get another. The Niger Delta Militancy taught Nigerians that the only way to force the government's / oil companies hand was the threat of violence. The sudden urgency to address the appalling literacy rates in North-East Nigeria would not have happened without the threat of Boko Haram.

    The percentage of children between six and 16 who have never attended school is highest in the North-east with states like - Borno 72 per cent, Yobe 58 per cent, Bauchi 52. You can work it out, Borno State (where 72% of children have not attended school is the epicenter of Boko Haram).

    There are other groups willing and able to use violence to draw attention to their grievances. Expect them to appear in future.

    2. The rank and file of the Nigerian Army are treated poorly and they mete out their frustration on the general public. Our news media tell stories about army pensioners who die while waiting in line to collect their pensions at Abuja. That is hardly the recipe for an effective fighting force.

    I write on this blog not because I am an experienced military person, but because I am a relatively well informed Nigerian, deeply concerned about the situation in Nigeria and I believe that some powerful people in Washington might read this blog.

    Nations must be allowed to evolve at their own pace. When a state of affairs simply becomes unsustainable and a ruling elite begins to lose legitimacy, then outside intervention may be more counter-productive than beneficial. This process is occurring in slow-motion in Nigeria.

    Cast your minds back, if the United Nations intervened during the French Revolution, what impact would it have had on Western Civilisation and the course of history? Outside intervention, if not carefully managed, offers a veneer of legitimacy to an illegitimate ruling elite (Mubarak, Ben Ali, Saleh).

    Enlightened self-interest, not altruism is the greatest driver of societal change. When the elite realises that the costs of bad governance greatly outweigh the benefits, then change happens. Western Governments are notorious for truncating this process (especially for friendly regimes, like Nigeria). When Western Governments promise to defray the costs of public goods like health care and education, there is very little motivation to push for internal reform.

    Something is going on in Nigeria, it has the potential of being bigger than the Arab Spring - what it is, we don't know. What we know is that the current state of affairs is not sustainable.

    Terrorism is not really Nigeria's problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Sorry about that. You gave me the impression you were of Nigerian decent. My bad !

    Were you or are you military ? Don't have to answer that, but it helps me gauge your view a bit better.

    Here's where we differ in opinions... The US Military is not some kind of humanitarian tool in the POTUS' kit bag when all other (diplomatic) solutions fail. The vast majority of our military is not trained for nor equipped to perform humanitarian missions (meandering around unarmed with the expectations of maintaining security must be the dumbest thing I have ever set my eyes on). It was never our job and we (most of us) honestly suck at it.
    I have never served in the military, in fact I am a child of the 1960s and a teenage and early 20s during those years in California. I am shaped by my experience back then, the being involved the rest of my life (I am not 63) in Africa.

    I would not say we are differ on this issue. The military is not the best group to offer humanitarian aid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post

    What productive measure sans US Military are you referring to? What's the mission objective, goals, exit strategy, estimated price, etc.? We now have over an inch of paper and congress has yet to approve FY12 despite the fact we are well into the first quarter in the middle of nowhere, and my people are not being paid, there's no fuel, and I have ceased ops. Sorry for blowing off steam with you, but that's exactly where my teams are right this second and I'm over 7,000 miles away. Hmmm, wonder why we stay so long ?

    Until we realize that the disparity in economies in the world lays at the root of many of the problems we will face in the future as citizen of the planet, we will have to live with increase unrest and growing terrorist activity.

    If we continue to be involved just for our own interests, we will continue to see opposition to us increase. Granted, we should not be involved in a popularity contest, but we should understand why people are increasing distrusting our motives.

    I am not even sure that a US government response is need. A concerted, trusting response from American financial elite would go a long way, yet it any effort or finances needs to empower the Nigerians, in the present case, to work out their own problems. After all, only they really understand the problems.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Boko Haram is many things, it is a:

    1. Jihadist movement/terrorist organisation.
    2. A vehicle to challenge the dominance of the Northern elite.
    3. A source of identification for many unemployed, under-educated Northern Muslim youths.

    Meanwhile, Boko Haram taps into another source of tension, the rapid expansion of Evangelical Christianity in Northern Nigeria. This has led a series of conflicts and the prospect of the World's first Evangelical Christian militant organisation Akwat Akwop.

    We need to sit down and renegotiate the basis for nationhood - and time is running out fast, a generation with no memories of the Nigerian Civil War is assuming positions of leadership.
    Thanks for the great background summary. Very helpful.

    I agree (as if that matters) with your assessment of what "Boko Haram is" today.

    The clashes between Christians and Muslims has indeed been around for some time in northern Nigeria. Both groups have committed horrendous atrocities. It is my understanding, correct me if I am off, that the press often calls these Christians and Muslim clashes but they are really clashes between various ethnic groups. I understand fully, and have experienced first hand that ethnicity plays a major role in society and politics in Africa.

    Can you please enlighten us more on the Akwat Akwop group. I have not heard of them before.

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    Default US Embassy denies US military coming to Nigeria

    Have you seen this story.... http://saharareporters.com/news-page...nst-boko-haram

    Seems if they now where the troops are coming from there may be some legs to this story.

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    The clashes between Christians and Muslims has indeed been around for some time in northern Nigeria. Both groups have committed horrendous atrocities. It is my understanding, correct me if I am off, that the press often calls these Christians and Muslim clashes but they are really clashes between various ethnic groups. I understand fully, and have experienced first hand that ethnicity plays a major role in society and politics in Africa.

    Can you please enlighten us more on the Akwat Akwop group. I have not heard of them before.
    The clashes are both religious and ethnic. For example, the Miss World riots of 2002 and the Danish cartoon riots had of a more religious tint. I still recall an extremely bloody set of riots in Northern Nigeria in reaction to the visit of a prominent German evangelist. Religion is as much a form of identity as ethnicity.

    [PS: Think about it, you are young, penniless and homeless. You leave your village heading for the township looking for a better life. Who provides you with support? Hint: it's not the Government or Western NGOs. It is either members of your ethnic group or (increasingly) your Church or Mosque. In Lagos, I see young, ambitious, but penniless men from Northern Nigeria sleeping in Mosques. If you are a Christian and you run into serious financial trouble and your family cannot help you out, the tendency is to seek help from fellow parishioners in Church - Churches have benevolence departments to handle that sort of thing.

    Many of you wonder why Africans take religion very seriously.]

    If you are a Christian and you live with assertive form of Islam, the tendency is for you to be more assertive in your profession of Christianity.

    Ethnicity plays a role, but a complex mixture of ethnicity and religion contributes to these clashes.

    For example, in Jos, the crisis is between ethnic Berom and Hausa-Fulani settlers. The Berom are predominantly Christian and are farmers, while the Hausa-Fulani are predominantly Muslim and are cattle herders. However, the Hausa-Fulani are not the only settlers in Jos - this fact normally gets lost in most analyses. The crisis in Jos was triggered by gerrymandering to favour the Hausa-Fulani (depends on whose side of the story you listen to). But gerrymandering would not have been necessary if the Hausa-Fulani and Berom shared the same religion.

    Not much is known about the Akwat Akwop group and they are yet to do anything spectacular, but this group is dominated by Christians from Nigeria's Middle Belt. Both the Niger Delta Militants and the supporters of Biafra have openly supported the aims of this group. (The Nigerian Army recruits heavily from the Middle Belt, so they are likely to have a strong base of ex-military men).

    A potential alliance between Akwat Akwop, the Niger Delta Militants and Biafra supporters seems logical, since all of these groups see Nigeria's core Muslim North as a common enemy.

    The map below, shows the distribution of votes during Nigeria's last election.



    The states in green voted for a Christian (Jonathan), while the States in blue (which correspond to the states that implement Sharia) voted for his opponent, a Muslim.

    Nigeria presents us with a situation like no other - an equally matched number of Christians and Muslims in an unstable developing country. The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan do not apply here, this is uncharted territory. The danger is that Boko Haram could just take the lid off the simmering pot and divide Nigeria into two nations with roughly the boundaries shown above. (Which to many people in the South is not a bad thing).

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    Have you seen this story.... http://saharareporters.com/news-page...nst-boko-haram

    Seems if they now where the troops are coming from there may be some legs to this story.
    A few things.

    1. If Nigeria had a competent Police Force / Intelligence gathering resources, there would be no use for Nigerian or US troops.

    2. The sighting of a single US soldier will be an incredible recruitment tool for Boko Haram and will severely put US interests at risk, especially at Abuja, a few hundred kilometers away from the epicenter of Boko Haram activities.

    3. Very little progress has been made in addressing the real causes of grievance (justice for murdered innocents, unemployment, illiteracy etc).

    4. Afghanistan and Iraq show that the US Army isn't really very good at this sort of thing. The US Army tends to go with a one-track this is Al Qaeda mentality.

    5. You are not dealing only with a terrorist group you are dealing with an insurgency with a deep well of support among the locals. Boko Haram's main targets have been Police, Military and Government installations. They also act as local Robin Hoods - they've been known to rob banks and distribute the money to the needy.

    6. Finally, there is no indication in more serious media that the story is true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Nigeria presents us with a situation like no other - an equally matched number of Christians and Muslims in an unstable developing country. The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan do not apply here, this is uncharted territory. The danger is that Boko Haram could just take the lid off the simmering pot and divide Nigeria into two nations with roughly the boundaries shown above. (Which to many people in the South is not a bad thing).
    Yes, the two nations division is the best solution. Why should one forcefully maintain the arbitrary colonial boundaries?

    Hold a referendum now and be done with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    1. If Nigeria had a competent Police Force / Intelligence gathering resources, there would be no use for Nigerian or US troops.
    Exactly so, but as there is nothing competent in those areas what are the other options?

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    Exactly so, but as there is nothing competent in those areas what are the other options?
    One of the options is state/local police. Police recruitment is centrally managed and many policemen are deployed to areas other than their states of origin. This impacts on their ability to gather intelligence.

    In addition, local administrators do not have control over the police, control rests at the center. If local policing is adopted, more competent local administrators will be better able to improve the security situation, attract more investment, improve employment and thus reduce the levels of violence.

    On the flip side, local police could be easily used by politicians as private armies.

    There is little room for Western intervention in all this. The Nigerian state needs to make some very painful readjustments or stand the risk of dissolution. This is why I keep insisting that the US Government is badly misreading the situation in Nigeria.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    One begins to understand the level of animosity
    In the country where I live they tell a joke about the police. A man from New York, a man from Berlin, and a man from Manila are discussing the police in their countries.

    The man from New York claims that in his city, when a crime is committed, the police arrive in five minutes

    The man from Berlin counters that in his city, when a crime is committed the police are there in three minutes.

    The man from Manila smiles and says "in my city, when a crime is committed, the police are already there."

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Nations must be allowed to evolve at their own pace. When a state of affairs simply becomes unsustainable and a ruling elite begins to lose legitimacy, then outside intervention may be more counter-productive than beneficial. This process is occurring in slow-motion in Nigeria.
    I agree. Has anyone seriously proposed outside intervention in Nigeria?

    I've often said that the Philippines, where I live, is not a failed state, but rather a functioning state with a failed government. It sounds from what you say that Nigeria is in a similar state. In such cases it is often easy to propose broad solutions, like dividing a country, but while these are easy things to say on an internet forum, they are very difficult things to make happen.

    Here, the fundamental conflict is between a fragmented and frustrated populace and a feudal elite that seems unable to grasp that their traditional prerogatives are fundamentally incompatible with either economic progress or political stability. That feudal elite is itself fragmented and the fragments are at odds with each other... but even when they pay lip service to the need for change, they are unwilling to surrender the privileges that make change impossible. Is this also the case there?

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    When the elite realises that the costs of bad governance greatly outweigh the benefits, then change happens.
    Here the elite has realized this, but change has not happened. Again, the reason is that while the elite see the advantage of good governance, they can't bring themselves to pursue good governance, because the crux of the transition to good governance would be their need to surrender the prerogatives that sustain their position. This they are unwilling to do, so they embrace cosmetic reforms that are never implemented, mouth whatever development rhetoric is fashionable that day, make brave speeches... and maintain the status quo.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Something is going on in Nigeria, it has the potential of being bigger than the Arab Spring - what it is, we don't know. What we know is that the current state of affairs is not sustainable.
    Unfortunately an unsustainable state of affairs can endure for a remarkably long time.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Terrorism is not really Nigeria's problem.
    Nor is it our problem, though we have a fair bit of it. We also have a long-repressed and marginalized Muslim population - in the south, not the north - that has been in varying states of rebellion for many decades. Here, too, the peripheral contacts between this rebellion and AQ have been blown out of proportion, and forced into the context of a "war on terror" where they do not really belong.

    Of course there are as many differences as similarities, but it is interesting to see how these situations recur in very different places in very different parts of the world.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 11-20-2011 at 11:32 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    Until we realize that the disparity in economies in the world lays at the root of many of the problems we will face in the future as citizen of the planet, we will have to live with increase unrest and growing terrorist activity.
    Easy to say, difficult to change.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    I am not even sure that a US government response is need. A concerted, trusting response from American financial elite would go a long way, yet it any effort or finances needs to empower the Nigerians, in the present case, to work out their own problems. After all, only they really understand the problems.
    I agree that no US Government response is needed, nor do I believe that any US Government response would be productive.

    I realize that it is fashionable to blame the "American financial elite" for practically everything, but I also do not see that they have any useful role to play in Nigeria, or for that matter in most developing-world political and economic impasses.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    Until we realize that the disparity in economies in the world lays at the root of many of the problems we will face in the future as citizen of the planet, we will have to live with increase unrest and growing terrorist activity.
    Hmmm, I think we have sufficient disparity at home and should be concentrating on our problems and national debt. The average US citizen doesn't realize that we have unrest and terrorism in our back yard. We could bring all our diplomats and soldiers home and baton down the hatches (close the borders), and just watch the fireworks on TV, but that's not our style.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    If we continue to be involved just for our own interests, we will continue to see opposition to us increase. Granted, we should not be involved in a popularity contest, but we should understand why people are increasing distrusting our motives.
    I know of no other country that gets involved without their own interests at heart. Not One, unless you have one in mind. I also don't know of any country that seems able and ready to get involved. We are so in debt yet we still find ways of doling out cash to someone other than our own. That's friggin' strange in my book. The Chinese have a far simpler solution - Give the dictator 100K and they do what they want to the extent they want to. Agreed ? (Dictator) Yes, Agreed. When the country goes deep into upheaval (it would have anyway) the Chinese were already prepared for that outcome and just split (but the debt is not forgiven). Care to know how many and much we we have forgiven over the years ? Scary stuff.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    I am not even sure that a US government response is need. A concerted, trusting response from American financial elite would go a long way, yet it any effort or finances needs to empower the Nigerians, in the present case, to work out their own problems. After all, only they really understand the problems.
    We actually agree (with your first sentence). Now why (other than Bill Gates) would the financial elite just send money to country(ies) that already possess some of the world's richest minerals ? How are we going to financially empower the Nigerians and not get the hierarchy involved ?

    Of course only the Nigerians really understand their internal problems, but how do we propose to inject cash that will not look like it came from America and a guarantee that this will empower the Nigerian public ? I am not trying to be sarcastic, but you are not in the military and I imagine never served in Africa so I am wondering about your plan.
    Last edited by Stan; 11-20-2011 at 12:13 PM.
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    Default Thread title changed

    The original title was 'Nigeria & Islam: terrorism plus' and has today been re-named 'Nigeria: the (wide) context for violence'.

    Clearly there is more than Boko Haram, terrorism and Islam involved.
    davidbfpo

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    I agree. Has anyone seriously proposed outside intervention in Nigeria?

    I've often said that the Philippines, where I live, is not a failed state, but rather a functioning state with a failed government. It sounds from what you say that Nigeria is in a similar state. In such cases it is often easy to propose broad solutions, like dividing a country, but while these are easy things to say on an internet forum, they are very difficult things to make happen.

    Here, the fundamental conflict is between a fragmented and frustrated populace and a feudal elite that seems unable to grasp that their traditional prerogatives are fundamentally incompatible with either economic progress or political stability. That feudal elite is itself fragmented and the fragments are at odds with each other... but even when they pay lip service to the need for change, they are unwilling to surrender the privileges that make change impossible. Is this also the case there?
    What then is the raison d'etre for AFRICOM if not intervention? What is the purpose of the numerous war games the US plays with respect to the Nigeria?

    The Philippines and Nigeria are very different. Nigeria is an artificial state, the Philippines is not - it is an old state with a Catholic identity. The Philippines had a couple of hundred years of Spanish rule to forge a common identity and a common experience of resistance to US occupation in the early 19th Century. On the other hand, the concept of "Nigeria" was created by the British only in 1914.

    Here the elite has realized this, but change has not happened. Again, the reason is that while the elite see the advantage of good governance, they can't bring themselves to pursue good governance, because the crux of the transition to good governance would be their need to surrender the prerogatives that sustain their position. This they are unwilling to do, so they embrace cosmetic reforms that are never implemented, mouth whatever development rhetoric is fashionable that day, make brave speeches... and maintain the status quo.
    Earlier in the year the home of the Emir of Kano was burnt to the ground. The convoy of the governor of one of the North-Eastern states was bombed a few days ago. I cannot count the number of politicians in Northern Nigeria who have been attacked.

    Secondly, you cannot predict behaviour. Probably, Filipinos are more docile, less violent and have an escape valve (11 million Filipinos in the diaspora). Nigerians are a very violent people and anyone who doesn't take that into account over the next thirty years is playing with fire.

    I'm not too old (I am in my thirties), but I really fear the generation behind me (late teens and twenties). They are much less respectful of authority and more willing to challenge the status quo than were are. They (especially those of them from the Muslim North) have been inspired by the Arab Spring.

    For a full thirty-five years after independence, it was unheard of for Nigerians to take up arms and challenge (a) the Nigerian Police Force and (b) the Nigerian Army. The Niger Delta changed everything, and today Nigerian security services are being challenged all over Nigeria (Niger Delta, Middle Belt, North-East Nigeria).

    In 1998/99, I witnessed a breakdown of law and order in Lagos and the South East. In both cases, the local administrators did not call on the State Security Services to restore law and order - they contracted the services of ethnic militias, who administered instant justice.

    Nigeria's has a rapidly growing population (2% per annum) - which means that by 2050, our population might reach 300 million. We are a single commodity economy (we depend only on Oil and Gas) and our petroleum reserves will dwindle rapidly mid century. Within the next few decades, the pressure to diversify the economy will increase exponentially and politicians will be under immense pressure to make that happen (remember that the Philippines is a much more diversified economy than Nigeria). Enlightened self-interest will take over.

    There are also two Nigerias emerging: There is a Nigeria in the South where female literacy rates above 70% are not uncommon and a Nigeria in the North where female literacy rates are as low as 25%. These differences show up in disparities in per capita income. Part of the anger in Northern Nigeria stems from the inability of Northern politicians bridge these gaps.



    (Note: The statistics for Yobe and Borno State are wrong, they are much lower - Yobe State 27.5% and Bornu State 20.9%).

    These differences were pointed out by the former Central Bank Governor in 2008: (Before Carter Ham and the US National Security establishment frantically started for looking for links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb)

    Central Bank (CBN) Governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, has blamed northern elites and their leaders for the crippling poverty ravaging the northern states, just as the Minister for Special Duties, Elder Godsday Orubebe, said that the problem in the Niger Delta should be blamed on lack of political will on the part of past leaders.

    Prof Soludo, who spoke while delivering a lecture entitled "Banking Reforms in Nigeria" at the 2008 Arewa Inspirational Leadership award in Kaduna yesterday said that with the level of affluence in the north, the region has no reason to lag behind other parts of the country in terms of developmental efforts.

    He said that the lack of interest displayed by northern elites towards the socio-economic development of the region is largely responsible for the "crippling poverty" and acute under development in the area.

    The CBN governor, whose utterances drew loud applause from the audience at the lecture, argued that this lackadaisical attitude of the Northern elites and their lack of interest towards investing in viable economic ventures is responsible for the region trailing others in almost every aspect of life.

    He said Nigeria has become a Northern phenomenon as each of the 19 states in the region exhibited incidences of poverty ranging between 60 and 95 percent, adding that the crippling poverty in the region had assumed the dimension of a national crisis just like the problems in the oil-rich but troubled Niger Delta region.

    He stressed that only an inclusive developmental process in which the North could compete favourably with the other parts of the country on the same pedestal would ensure that Nigeria realized its dream of being part of the 20 largest economies in the world by the year 2020.
    There is also a religious dimension to this disparity, from the Pew Forum:

    According to a Pew Forum analysis of the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey, the percentage of women of childbearing age who cannot read is three times as high among Muslims (71.9%) as among non-Muslim Nigerians (23.9%). Muslim women of childbearing age are also much less likely to have received a formal education than are other women in the country; 66.0% of Muslim women have no formal education, compared with 11.2% of non-Muslims. Only about 3% of Muslim women in Nigeria have attended college or university, compared with roughly 14% of non-Muslim women.

    According to the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey, Muslim women in Nigeria marry more than three years earlier on average than non-Muslim women (15.9 years for Muslims, compared with 19.5 years for non-Muslims). Also, 81.3% of Muslim women say they do not intend to use birth control, compared with 51.2% of non-Muslim women.

    Geographically, Muslims are more concentrated in the northern part of Nigeria and Christians in the southern part, while the mid-section of the country is more religiously mixed.
    If these disparities are not dealt with within this decade, the gulf between North and South, Muslim and Christian will further widen, leading to more social tension. Northern Nigeria is in an increasingly precarious situation, with little or no economic activity to speak of, crippling poverty, creeping desertification and widespread illiteracy.There is intense pressure on Northern politicians to perform.


    This will also put more pressure on the South to support the North economically. Naturally, the South may not want to do this and may want to opt out of that arrangement. Recently, we were treated to the unfortunate spectacle of internal deportation - In order to rid Lagos of beggars, the Lagos State Government deported several beggars (mainly of Northern origin), back to Northern Nigeria.

    We are already beginning to see flickers of enlightened self-interest from Southern politicians. For example, the Lagos State Government is working hard to improve the transportation situation.

    The governor inspecting rolling stock in Canada



    Lagos light rail under construction



    Something similar is happening is Rivers State (one of the Oil producing states in the Niger Delta). (PS: The Niger Delta militancy is popular here because it forced the Federal Government to drastically increase revenue allocation to the Niger Delta. Some governors have chosen to invest the money wisely, others have simply embezzled it).

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    What then is the raison d'etre for AFRICOM if not intervention? What is the purpose of the numerous war games the US plays with respect to the Nigeria?
    The question was whether anyone has seriously proposed intervention in Nigeria, not in Africa. Has there been any such proposal, on even the most hypothetical level? I haven't heard one, but I might have missed something.

    Hard to suggest, really, that the raison d'etre of AFRICOM is intervention. The US has these commands for every part of the world, but that doesn't mean they're planning worldwide intervention... they are just administrative divisions. The actual force structure and resources of AFRICOM suggest strongly that intervention is not the intention: how much intervention are you going to do on a continent the size of Africa with 2000 people based in Stuttgart?

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Probably, Filipinos are more docile, less violent and have an escape valve (11 million Filipinos in the diaspora). Nigerians are a very violent people and anyone who doesn't take that into account over the next thirty years is playing with fire.
    Actually we have two of the most intractable insurgencies in the world... all kinds of people are violent. I'd agree, though, that the potential for violence in Nigeria seems very high. I do not, however, think there;s anything much any outside power can or should try to do about it. The solution, if there is to be one, has to be internal.


    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    I'm not too old (I am in my thirties), but I really fear the generation behind me (late teens and twenties). They are much less respectful of authority and more willing to challenge the status quo than were are. They (especially those of them from the Muslim North) have been inspired by the Arab Spring.

    For a full thirty-five years after independence, it was unheard of for Nigerians to take up arms and challenge (a) the Nigerian Police Force and (b) the Nigerian Army. The Niger Delta changed everything, and today Nigerian security services are being challenged all over Nigeria (Niger Delta, Middle Belt, North-East Nigeria).
    Sometimes somebody has to challenge the status quo - the people who benefit from the status quo aren't going to give up their privileges unless they're forced to - and if nobody listens to peaceful challenges, the next ones will be violent. Maybe that next generation will force some changes, though the process isn't likely to be pretty, especially if those who benefit from the status quo dig in and fight.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Nigeria's has a rapidly growing population (2% per annum) - which means that by 2050, our population might reach 300 million. We are a single commodity economy (we depend only on Oil and Gas) and our petroleum reserves will dwindle rapidly mid century. Within the next few decades, the pressure to diversify the economy will increase exponentially and politicians will be under immense pressure to make that happen (remember that the Philippines is a much more diversified economy than Nigeria). Enlightened self-interest will take over.
    Yes, we're a diversified economic basket case . One hopes that enlightened self-interest will take over someday in both places, rather than the decidedly unenlightened self-interest that prevails today. In Nigeria's case one hopes it happens before oil runs out, as it's easier to diversify if you have some capital to invest!

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    These differences were pointed out by the former Central Bank Governor in 2008: (Before Carter Ham and the US National Security establishment frantically started for looking for links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb)
    Are they really looking? It's quite possible that they might, and it wouldn't be the first time... but there's been very little political interest in boots-on-ground military intervention in Africa since the 1993 mess in Mogadishu, and I doubt that it's something anyone on the US side really wants to do.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 11-21-2011 at 12:55 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    What then is the raison d'etre for AFRICOM if not intervention? What is the purpose of the numerous war games the US plays with respect to the Nigeria?
    Jaja,
    If you're referring to the 2008 war gaming at Carlisle you should probably check a few US sources because the stories/rumors/versions are quite different from that of the Concerned African Scholars. Just a suggestion. I also have a hard time weighing the stories and I have access to AKO, etc.

    War Gaming and Bilateral military exercises are not a preparatory stage for intervention and I might add, those war games and military exercises were taking place before AFRICOM was around.

    Someone sent me this link but failed to read the last line.

    Daniel Volman is director of the African Security Research Project in Washington, DC and a member of the board of directors of the Association of Concerned Africa Scholars. He has been studying U.S. security policy toward Africa and U.S. military activities in Africa for more than 30 years.
    Well of course it jibes with all the other stories - they are one in the same.

    Similar to the Ivory Coast, Obama is not going to intervene without ECOWAS and the AU. If only one African Leader's voice (President John Mills) shut down action proposed, then I can't see it happening. Nigeria would literally have to request assistance (not that we don't know that that has occurred).
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    The first thing you need to understand about Nigeria, is that it is an artificial construct, created by the British to reduce administrative expenses.

    The area called Nigeria has been inhabited by several ethnic groups with very different cultures, over a period of thousands of years. In Nigeria's South West, the Benin Empire and the Yoruba Kingdoms were predominant. (A distinguishing characteristic of the Benin Empire was that they refused to sell slaves to Europeans). In the South East, the Igbo were organised into villages, and in most cases they didn't have central leadership figures (they tended to be more consensual). There are other ethnic groups in the South that shared some of the characteristics of the Igbo and the Yoruba.
    [/I]
    Having worked in Benin for 9 years, and fluent in one ethnic group's language (Adja), I understand to some extent the influence of ethnicity in the region. For anyone working in or advising on terrorist activities in the region, they must have an understanding of ethnicity and worldview of those they are working among. Of course, Africans in the region have the best understanding of that, outsiders can and should learn more.

    I wonder what type of cultural training US troops, especially officers receive who are working or monitoring the region?

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    A few things.


    2. The sighting of a single US soldier will be an incredible recruitment tool for Boko Haram and will severely put US interests at risk, especially at Abuja, a few hundred kilometers away from the epicenter of Boko Haram activities.
    Agreed. And, in my opinion, the presence of US soldiers would further distract southerners and security forces from finding a way to dialog with Boko Haram or at least to work on solving the social/economic situation. The dissonance must continue to raise until Nigerians creatively come up with a way to alleviate the suffering. Outsiders may be able to help but only when asked for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Hmmm, I think we have sufficient disparity at home and should be concentrating on our problems and national debt. The average US citizen doesn't realize that we have unrest and terrorism in our back yard. We could bring all our diplomats and soldiers home and baton down the hatches (close the borders), and just watch the fireworks on TV, but that's not our style.

    Nor should it be our style. We care, we just struggle with how to effectively help. The issues and circumstances are so complex. This forum is one of many that need to take place so that thinkers from within and without can dialog and advise. We have to give come up with a solutions, for us and them.

    I know of no other country that gets involved without their own interests at heart. ... It is in our own interests that Nigeria comes up with a solution to the disparity in their country. There is oil there and other mineral present in the country, if not solution comes to the growing problem, you will see our "petroleum elite" lobbying for the US to come up with what would be an even worse situation for the Nigerians - US military involvement.


    We actually agree (with your first sentence). Now why (other than Bill Gates) would the financial elite just send money to country(ies) that already possess some of the world's richest minerals ? How are we going to financially empower the Nigerians and not get the hierarchy involved ?

    Of course only the Nigerians really understand their internal problems, but how do we propose to inject cash that will not look like it came from America and a guarantee that this will empower the Nigerian public ? I am not trying to be sarcastic, but you are not in the military and I imagine never served in Africa so I am wondering about your plan.
    I did serve in Africa, 25 years of my life. I have been involved in Africa for close to 40 years. We Americans want to see quick change and a quick return for our efforts. That is just not going to happen. Knowing that should not weaken our commitment to assist, but we must listen to Africans, learn from them.

    I know all of this is easier said than done. Commitment and trust, not blind trust, but informed trust is important.

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