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Thread: Syria in 2017 (January-April)

  1. #2041
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    Azor...I find building timelines a great benefit....

    Timeline Russian support and involvement with Assad say from 2000 until say 2015.

    Then timeline Russian actions from say 2015 until APR 2017...THEN parallel US Presidential actions against that timeline....

    Then you will see that Putin used the US Presidential election phase to actually "freeze" any US actions in countering Russia in Syria BECAUSE he knew how Obama would react based on his non action in 2013 and knew he was risk adverse and he knew the incoming President would do nothing in the first 100 days....then you will fully understand what CrowBat and myself have been saying...had Obama taken forceful actions in Syria in 2013 Russia would not have acted in support to Assad...it really is that simple..

    Putin had a window of opportunity and took it...that window was simply not there in 2013....

    NOW what is a really interesting timeline ...actually timeline the Russian influence and cyber operations being conducted in the US both before and during the election phase against the Russian Syrian actions timeline.....some say this influence operation actually started in mid 2014....

    I challenge anyone here to tell me that those two timelines do not match ...they do and actually they parallel each other... a solid indicator that one was supporting the other as Putin definitely knew Clinton would respond to him in Syria and he knew what he "had in Trump"....
    a non action individual who wanted to "do a deal with him at any cost"....

    A lot of commenters comment here without taking the time to create a timeline of anything and it does take time to build a fairly accurate timeline before posting...I do this with every project at my company.......it helps one stay focused...

    If one takes the 5Ws and 1H method to timeline..you have the answer facing you whether you like it are not....Who..What...Where...When..How and the critical one after all of these.... the WHY?

    If you cannot answer the Why then you have a hole somewhere in the timeline....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 06:26 AM.

  2. #2042
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    Why do I say build timelines.....

    If you take Russian/Assad air strikes over the last say two weeks..you would actually be amazed to see that on average every 12 hours there is either a Russian and or Assad air strike on a hospital and or IDP camp...

    And what is the western response to this as actually bombing hospitals is both a war crime and an IHL violation....

    AND out of the Trump WH.....silence...nothing...nada..nichts.....

    Actually the Trump response is far worse than Obama's because he has you looking at his bluff's on NK...NAFTA....grand
    "tax cuts"... and "fake news"...at least on occasions the Obama WH would respond and they definitely did not have you looking at NAFTA...or "fake news"...

    Example:

    1. A Trump "lost" US aircraft carrier strike force finally makes it towards Korea
    2. U.S. test fires ICBM in message to North Korea
    3. Trump calls the entire 100 person Senate to WH for a NK briefing that could have been held in the Senate....

    Served to do exactly what "impress NK" which it did not BUT WAIT...he definitely was trying to "bluff and impress his voters on this 100 days of great achievements"....

    So on all of this "100 day thingy"...he could have said something anything on Russian incendiary cluster munitions dropping on civilians..BUT he did not...OR that Russia should stop bombing hospitals...at least the Obama WH would say that...

    SO exactly what is the Trump FP at almost 100 days?....Remember SWJ does have a thread on this that virtually no one posted anything on....

    BTW...I am not the only one seeing this connection between hype/bluff and his "100 day thingy"...

    Max Boot

    @MaxBoot
    From tax-cut press release to N Korea briefing for Senate, admin is desperate to create events this week to distract from 100-day failures.

    But here is actually Trump's core problem....if one decides as an adult to ride a child's rocking horse...one gets a lot of "motion" going back and forth, but no "actual forward movement"...and right now Trump is all about "motion" using "motion" to mask failure at doing anything he has stated he was going to do.....

    And his voters are lapping it up as "success".....so I guess in the end "motion" can be a FP if one is hard pressed for a FP...

    WOW....'Dog and Pony" show I have not heard that since countless briefings in Baghdad on why the AQI was collapsing in Iraq in 2006....

    Sen. Duckworth tells @CNN that the NK briefing felt like "a dog-and-pony show...I didn't learn anything I couldn't have read in a newspaper"
    And she is a wounded Iraqi war vet....


    BUT WAIT...maybe this was because Trump tweets that basically ALL US MSM produces is "fake news" so maybe his briefings are not "fake news"...

    What a total farce of a current WH FP on anything including Syria...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 07:35 AM.

  3. #2043
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    Not a single comment from any western leader...from UNSC and or EU....

    Relief forces from the @SyriaCivilDef & @Violet_org1 are still searching for victims in the rubble of the "University Hospital" S of #Idlib.

    "I love the smell of a war crime in the morning." -by @DarthPutinKGB

    Russian overnight air strikes destroyed the Dayr ash Sharqi hospital.


    Notice Trump could comment but he does not Why?.."they are Muslims and Syrians on top of it"...he was able to side step that thought on his TLAM strike by referring to "those beautiful babies".....thus staying in line with his voter base and his Muslim travel ban...

    BUT WAIT...his WH staff did claim that in his "100 days thingy" his grand Syrian strategy is working...where IMHO I am not sure?
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    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-27-2017 at 09:32 AM.

  4. #2044
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat.....there were a number of reports coming out of Damascus airport of a very large explosion...anything on your end?
    Well we have the answer....

    BREAKING: Israeli fighter jets strike positions near #Damascus airport Thursday morning

    BUT WAIT...did not the Russian MoD state this week that Syria is now under a complete Russian AA umbrella?

    Seems the IDF did not hear about that statement....or the Russian AA umbrella has some really BIG holes in it?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 07:43 AM.

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    Azor..so are you now finally willing to admit that the Trump "Wag the Dog moment" is not just some "fake news theory"?

    For Trump the WTD is not just a moment but a day to day reality...just as he stated he would go it alone in preemptively attacking NK......

    Sure is all I can say....

    And "all those beautiful babies" are still being killed daily...just not by CWs...

    BTW...this is the perfect example of just how stupid this Trump WH truly is.....and actually goes to the Trump statement in a recent interview that he does not read.....

    I seriously doubt Trump and his WH merry band of brothers truly realize if NAFTA is cancelled then the 80s era Reagan Canada-US Free Trade Agreement AUTOMATICALLY kicks back in and that will in the end damage 12,000,000 US workers....

    So if they are so uninformed about US signed trade treaties how do we expect them to be any better in ME affairs?

    It is another 12 hours and another Russian air strike on a hospital ...a war crime and the Trump Wh is concerned about their "100 day thingy image?

    BreakingFootage
    The underground hospital of #Maarzita is a burning inferno after #Kremlin regime air strikes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nhLb6ENaCk#

    Russians and Assad are systematically and deliberately targeting hospitals and civilian facilities ..and the Trump grand strategy for Syria is what exactly again...oh...a press release in honor of what he has done in the first 100 days...wow.....

    AND American creditability is what these days????
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-27-2017 at 09:33 AM.

  6. #2046
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    So we are back into active ground combat in both Iraq and Syria...BUT WAS IT not Trump himself who stated I was not for the Iraqi war after being for the Iraq war...well he is back for the war...but this time he did not say anything as he turned that over to the military to order......so if it goes badly...it is the fault of the Generals not me......

    Trump gives Pentagon power to reset Iraq, Syria troop limits
    http://reut.rs/2pnG12H

  7. #2047
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    I do follow CrowBat quite closely, and we agree on much. However, CrowBat believes that an American intervention in Syria, whether in 2013 or 2016, would have gone unchallenged by either Russia or Iran, and that they would have stood aside.
    Sorry: you misunderstood something - and then massively.

    I was never a proponent of any kind of foreign military interventions in Syria: I'm strictly against any kind of such adventures - whether run by the USA, or by anybody else (with 'anybody else' including Iran, Turkey, Russia, Qatar etc.).

    On the contrary, I was always a proponent of either an 'indirect approach' or 'keeping everybody out' - and preferably a combination of the two.

    Military-wise, this would combine an aerial blockade of Syria (perhaps a land-blockade too; whatever would be the case, such an operation would aim to interrupt the Iranian air-bridge, and also - at that time - prevent any kind of a Russian military intervention), with a complete blockade of the flow of supplies for Wahhabists in Syria from various of (supposed) US 'allies' in the Gulf (primarily Qatar and Kuwait). I've explained this nicely in this interview to David Axe of War is Boring, back in 2013: Blockading Syria by Air.

    (What eventually happened was exactly the opposite: Obama decided that the Syrian Civil War is not a US problem, and then left the Iranians do whatever they like; in this fashion, the USA significantly bolstered the spread of the Daesh - including its destruction of insurgency in NE Syria, but especially its 'spill back' into Iraq; this necessitated the DC letting the IRGC dominate Iraq, and then the DC left the Pentagon - as ill-informed about Syria as it always was - to successfully block the CIA's operations in support of Syrian insurgents, and instead pick - against US laws - the terrorist organization PKK as it's 'most reliable ally vs Daesh'. I.e. the DC did its best to confirm that the 'USA' stands for the 'United States of Absurdities'.)

    Our discussion about what would Putin do in the case of an US military intervention since the Russian military intervention was, from my POV, a purely academic exercise. In this regards, I see the lack of Russian reaction to the US TLAM-strike on Shayrat (not to talk about a complete lack of Russian reaction to all the Israeli air strikes) as a confirmation of my standpoint: Putler is in no condition to do anything at all. And: regardless of being a demagogue of worst sort, he's not as crazy as to risk a direct military confrontation with the USA.

    He's already fighting his WWIII against the West - though 'by other means'.

    [*]... and only a fraction of the civilian casualties are caused by airpower
    I would love to see any kind of reliable statistics in this regards.

    It's perfectly possible that the issue has a rather suggestive background, but majority of Syrian refugees I happened to meet and talk over the last two years cited 'air strikes' - as the reason they fled, and the reason for most of their dead relatives. The way their kids react alone at the sound of the engine of one of several helicopters operated by emergency-services in this part of Syria (not to talk about reaction of the same kids to the sounds of Austrian Luftstreitkrfte's Eurofighters occasionally passing by), tends to lend quite some weight to such conclusions.

  8. #2048
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    Default How Syria and Russia Spun a Chemical Strike

    A short, seven minute video from the NYT on the CW stroke on Khan Sheikhoun; it mixes open source info, yes with drone footage and the public statements by Russia & Syria.
    Link:https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/...=67232673&te=1

    Copied to the OSINT thread as an example what can be done.

    Note the NYT does not attribute responsibility for the CW strike.
    davidbfpo

  9. #2049
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    CrowBat, perhaps this (below) is the source of the erroneous report that the SyAAF dispersed to Russian-protected airbases?

    Syria Situation Report (April 14-20): http://www.understandingwar.org/site...DITS%20COT.pdf
    Most likely - yes.

    Though if so, it only shows how poor is the ELINT collected by the US military in Syria.

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    Unusual video...posted by Assad forces of their own gun technical being hit by a rebel ATGM....

    Leaked video from #Assad-forces: Pickup hit by ATMG
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pny07Cpl2jU#

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    Syria: Turkish artillery shelling has killed 9 #YPG fighters west of #Tall_Abyad.

    TSK artillery & tank shelling across border on villages west of Tell Abyad
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 03:47 PM.

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    Russian Syrian Naval Express...is one less ship today and it was an expensive spy ship....

    Russia|n spy ship "Liman" (Black Sea Fleet) sunk on its way to #Syria after collision near Bosphorus. 78 man crew rescued.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39734998#

    How can a spy ship jammed full of electronic equipment get lost in bad weather and hit another ship...appears they hade no ship to ship radar?????
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 04:34 PM.

  13. #2053
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor..so are you now finally willing to admit that the Trump "Wag the Dog moment" is not just some "fake news theory"?

    For Trump the WTD is not just a moment but a day to day reality...just as he stated he would go it alone in preemptively attacking NK......

    Sure is all I can say....

    And "all those beautiful babies" are still being killed daily...just not by CWs...

    BTW...this is the perfect example of just how stupid this Trump WH truly is.....and actually goes to the Trump statement in a recent interview that he does not read.....

    I seriously doubt Trump and his WH merry band of brothers truly realize if NAFTA is cancelled then the 80s era Reagan Canada-US Free Trade Agreement AUTOMATICALLY kicks back in and that will in the end damage 12,000,000 US workers....

    So if they are so uninformed about US signed trade treaties how do we expect them to be any better in ME affairs?

    It is another 12 hours and another Russian air strike on a hospital ...a war crime and the Trump Wh is concerned about their "100 day thingy image?

    BreakingFootage
    The underground hospital of #Maarzita is a burning inferno after #Kremlin regime air strikes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nhLb6ENaCk#

    Russians and Assad are systematically and deliberately targeting hospitals and civilian facilities ..and the Trump grand strategy for Syria is what exactly again...oh...a press release in honor of what he has done in the first 100 days...wow.....

    AND American creditability is what these days????
    More proof that when it comes to US FP by this Trump WH....one simply cannot really believe a single word...comment and or statement....out of Trump and or anyone else it seems....

    Yesterday Trump WH stated he had called Canada and Mexico....today his tweets state THEY had called him....

    Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified account
    #@realDonaldTrump
    I received calls from the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada asking to renegotiate NAFTA rather than terminate. I agreed..

    Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified account
    #@realDonaldTrump
    ...subject to the fact that if we do not reach a fair deal for all, we will then terminate NAFTA. Relationships are good-deal very possible!

    American creditability is now at virtually BELOW ZERO....if that possible

  14. #2054
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russian Syrian Naval Express...is one less ship today and it was an expensive spy ship....

    Russia|n spy ship "Liman" (Black Sea Fleet) sunk on its way to #Syria after collision near Bosphorus. 78 man crew rescued.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39734998#

    How can a spy ship jammed full of electronic equipment get lost in bad weather and hit another ship...appears they hade no ship to ship radar?????
    Not a good day for the Russian MoD....pilot crashes a new MIG 35 and their spy ship gets sunk by a ship full of cattle....

    A livestock vessel in the Black Sea has just done more than the entire Western world to stop Russia's war crimes in Syria.

    Correction..there was no cattle in the ship.....

    It takes 8800 sheep to sink a Russian Navy intelligence ship. Quite an ammo.
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 04:46 PM.

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    8 more #YPG fighters were killed by Turkish artillery strikes. 17 #YPG fighters were killed west of #Tall_Abyad so far today

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    Large Turkish-backed Ahrar Al-Sharqiyah convoy on the way towards #Tall_Abyad.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 06:41 PM.

  17. #2057
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    More proof that when it comes to US FP by this Trump WH....one simply cannot really believe a single word...comment and or statement....out of Trump and or anyone else it seems....

    Yesterday Trump WH stated he had called Canada and Mexico....today his tweets state THEY had called him....

    Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified account
    #@realDonaldTrump
    I received calls from the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada asking to renegotiate NAFTA rather than terminate. I agreed..

    Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified account
    #@realDonaldTrump
    ...subject to the fact that if we do not reach a fair deal for all, we will then terminate NAFTA. Relationships are good-deal very possible!

    American creditability is now at virtually BELOW ZERO....if that possible
    They do not even understand the USG security clearance system and or process...when questioned about why their first NSA had a security clearance and is now under investigation they blame Obama...not knowing that when you are out of government for two years there is no longer a valid clearance in place...

    Fox News‏
    Verified account
    #
    @FoxNews
    .@PressSec: "We trust that when you are cleared the first time... that your background check is still clear."

    Simply a lie.....This is affirmatively false. Everyone has 5 year periodic re-investigation and there is *always* re-investigation after being out of access.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-27-2017 at 06:30 PM.

  18. #2058
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    Default To CrowBat RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Sorry: you misunderstood something - and then massively. I was never a proponent of any kind of foreign military interventions in Syria…
    I never claimed that you were an advocate for a U.S. military intervention, but that you believed that such intervention would have gone unchallenged. You claimed that beyond the relatively small air defense bubbles…

    Russians wouldn't dare challenging a NFZ. They would paint with SAM-radars, threaten, boast, complain, cry, offend, and lie, like they always do. And that's all.
    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Military-wise, this would combine an aerial blockade of Syria (perhaps a land-blockade too; whatever would be the case, such an operation would aim to interrupt the Iranian air-bridge, and also - at that time - prevent any kind of a Russian military intervention), with a complete blockade of the flow of supplies for Wahhabists [sic?] in Syria from various of (supposed) US 'allies' in the Gulf (primarily Qatar and Kuwait).
    As I have asserted to both you and Outlaw, I doubt that the U.S. could have effected a blockade of Syria in 2013 or now, which incidentally would be an act of war. See here:



    I believe that the Russians would merely ignore a blockade and dare the U.S. to fire upon them, and that the Iranians would disguise their air-bridge as civilian air traffic and again dare the U.S. to fire. Neither Turkey, Iraq nor Lebanon can control their borders in the first place it seems, to say nothing of the lack of political will in Iraq and Lebanon to do so in opposition to Iran. What of Syria’s extensive coastline, the Russian base at Tartus and Russia’s cozy relations with nearby Cyprus?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    Our discussion about what would Putin do in the case of an US military intervention since the Russian military intervention was, from my POV, a purely academic exercise. In this regards, I see the lack of Russian reaction to the US TLAM-strike on Shayrat (not to talk about a complete lack of Russian reaction to all the Israeli air strikes) as a confirmation of my standpoint: Putler is in no condition to do anything at all. And: regardless of being a demagogue of worst sort, he's not as crazy as to risk a direct military confrontation with the USA. He's already fighting his WWIII against the West - though 'by other means'.
    Come now, CrowBat; don’t be disingenuous.

    You know perfectly well that the TLAM strike on Shayrat was a wise skirmish for Russia to avoid, and that it did not materially threaten Russia’s interests in Syria, despite the sting of public humiliation.

    You are also aware of the different intentions in Moscow and Teheran, despite their alliance of convenience. No serious Kremlinologist has suggested that Putin is supportive of Assad using chemical weapons or Hezbollah rearming to threaten northern Israel. On the contrary, I believe that Putin welcomes the slaps on the wrist delivered from the air.

    On February 26, 2014, a Russian analyst that I have great respect for replied to my questions about whether Russia would invade Ukraine and whether a “limited action” in the Donets Basin (before I began referring to it as Donbas) and Crimea were possible. He replied:

    Putin has no military option…I think people should avoid believing that Putin is thinking about an Ossetia style option.
    The rest, of course, is history. I have withheld his name and he ceased correspondence, but my respect remains.

    My point, which seems to be misunderstood, is not that Putin would militarily confront the U.S., but that he would dare it to confront him. I can assure you that European NATO members would be aghast at the sight of the U.S. firing on Russian aircraft, and that the U.S. would find itself disliked and isolated.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat
    I would love to see any kind of reliable statistics in this regards.
    See here: https://orbi.ulg.ac.be/bitstream/226...20-%202015.pdf

    Artillery or “ground-based fires” has been the “king of war” since 1914.

    Few victims of shelling hear the “Dear ___” with their name on it arcing through the air, let alone survive to tell the tale. Aircraft engines are of course terrifying to civilians who survive war. My grandmother remains terrified of trains and of airliners passing overhead, despite the fact that what threatened her and killed her loved ones were bullets, overwork and starvation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    Most likely - yes.

    Though if so, it only shows how poor is the ELINT collected by the US military in Syria.
    Or Washington is continuing to shame Moscow by claiming that it is defending Assad's use of chemical weapons by protecting the SyAAF.

    Why not play Moscow's PR game that Obama refused to enjoin?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    I never claimed that you were an advocate for a U.S. military intervention, but that you believed that such intervention would have gone unchallenged. You claimed that beyond the relatively small air defense bubbles…





    As I have asserted to both you and Outlaw, I doubt that the U.S. could have effected a blockade of Syria in 2013 or now, which incidentally would be an act of war. See here:



    I believe that the Russians would merely ignore a blockade and dare the U.S. to fire upon them, and that the Iranians would disguise their air-bridge as civilian air traffic and again dare the U.S. to fire. Neither Turkey, Iraq nor Lebanon can control their borders in the first place it seems, to say nothing of the lack of political will in Iraq and Lebanon to do so in opposition to Iran. What of Syria’s extensive coastline, the Russian base at Tartus and Russia’s cozy relations with nearby Cyprus?



    Come now, CrowBat; don’t be disingenuous.

    You know perfectly well that the TLAM strike on Shayrat was a wise skirmish for Russia to avoid, and that it did not materially threaten Russia’s interests in Syria, despite the sting of public humiliation.

    You are also aware of the different intentions in Moscow and Teheran, despite their alliance of convenience. No serious Kremlinologist has suggested that Putin is supportive of Assad using chemical weapons or Hezbollah rearming to threaten northern Israel. On the contrary, I believe that Putin welcomes the slaps on the wrist delivered from the air.

    On February 26, 2014, a Russian analyst that I have great respect for replied to my questions about whether Russia would invade Ukraine and whether a “limited action” in the Donets Basin (before I began referring to it as Donbas) and Crimea were possible. He replied:



    The rest, of course, is history. I have withheld his name and he ceased correspondence, but my respect remains.

    My point, which seems to be misunderstood, is not that Putin would militarily confront the U.S., but that he would dare it to confront him. I can assure you that European NATO members would be aghast at the sight of the U.S. firing on Russian aircraft, and that the U.S. would find itself disliked and isolated.



    See here: https://orbi.ulg.ac.be/bitstream/226...20-%202015.pdf

    Artillery or “ground-based fires” has been the “king of war” since 1914.

    Few victims of shelling hear the “Dear ___” with their name on it arcing through the air, let alone survive to tell the tale. Aircraft engines are of course terrifying to civilians who survive war. My grandmother remains terrified of trains and of airliners passing overhead, despite the fact that what threatened her and killed her loved ones were bullets, overwork and starvation.
    Shelling's and or Grads have never created anywhere close to the number of refugees and IDP's caused by air strikes especially the barrel bombs...cluster munitions...incendiary cluster munitions and bunker busters....AND then the sheer number recently of 500lb thermobaric bombs coming down like rain....

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