Turkey mainly, Iraq and the Kurds (2006-2012)

[davidbfpo]

An article by Bill Park, with aspects my media watching had not spotted, e.g.:

..more than 600 Kurdish prisoners are entering the eighth week of a hunger-strike...

Then there is the political decision to:

The vigorous crackdown on even relatively moderate Kurdish leaders removes the most likely interlocutors from the political scene, and surely serves to harden Kurdish sentiment

Demography could alter the scene, my emphasis:

More compelling is the recent estimate by the Turkish statistical institute that there are over 22 million Kurds in Turkey, constituting more than 30% of the republic’s population. Furthermore, the Kurdish birthrate in Turkey is reckoned to be at least twice that of ethnic Turks. Although these figures are fuzzy around the edges, they suggest that within a couple of generations, Kurds could well make up the majority of Turkey’s population. True, many are already assimilated; but can the government really believe that the current campaign of political repression and marginalisation, and violence rather than dialogue, stands any chance of assimilating the remainder of them - ever, let alone before such time as Kurds outnumber Turks?

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/bill-pa...king-to-crisis

[AdamG]

Iraq’s premier has warned Kurdish regional security forces not to advance towards government troop positions, a military spokesman said on Monday, after deadly clashes in a flashpoint northern town.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s office warned the Kurdish forces, known as peshmerga, “not to change their positions or approach the [federal] armed forces,” Iraqi military spokesman Colonel Dhia al-Wakil said in a message received by AFP.

http://english.alarabiya.net/article...19/250558.html

[AdamG]

TUZ KHURMATU, Iraq — A shootout over an unpaid gasoline bill in this small but hotly contested town has sent tensions soaring between the Iraqi government in Baghdad and the northern region of Kurdistan, threatening to ignite the Arab-Kurdish conflict that many have long feared.

On Tuesday, the Iraqi army rushed thousands of troops and reinforcements to the area after the Kurdish regional government placed its pesh merga militia forces on high alert along the arc of disputed territory that spans the borders of the semiautonomous Kurdish enclave.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...l?tid=socialss

[AdamG]

Iraqi leaders in the central government and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region appear to be stepping back from the brink of open warfare.

They agreed Monday to withdraw the thousands of troops deployed in the past week to Iraq's disputed territories, following a fatal Nov. 16 shootout between the two sides. The deal appears to be holding despite deadly bombings Tuesday in Kirkuk and Baghdad that may have been designed to provoke conflict.

http://www.iraqoilreport.com/securit...s-easing-9380/

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/11/27...#storylink=cpy

[davidbfpo]

Turkey is holding talks with the jailed head of the PKK Kurdish militant group, Abdullah Ocalan, to push for its disarmament, officials say.....The Turkish prime minister's top political adviser said the government had concluded that it would be unlikely to defeat the outlawed PKK militarily.

Prime ministerial adviser Yalcin Akdogan said the intelligence services were holding discussions with Ocalan:

The goal is the disarmament of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)...The government supports any dialogue to this end that could result in a halt to violence. You cannot get results and abolish an organisation only with armed struggle.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20880944

Interesting timing when one looks at the international aspects of the conflict next door in Syria.

[davidbfpo]

A Turkish newspaper report, which opens with:

Terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah calan stated that the era of armed struggle to achieve the political goals of the Kurds is over. He was speaking in a meeting with two Kurdish lawmakers, who made rare a visit to the PKK leader, being held on an island prison, on Thursday, signaling that Turkey is negotiating with the terrorist organization over ending a conflict that has killed tens of thousands over the past three decades.

Ocalan in jail since 1999 has power:

his order, made after a visit from his brother, to end a 68-day hunger strike by PKK terrorists in prisons across Turkey was immediately obeyed.

Link:http://www.todayszaman.com/news-303039-.html

It is curious that an imprisoned leader can make such decisions. How a nation and its opponents in an insurgency / terrorist campaign use law enforcement, with imprisonment, as a tactic to get results is an perplexing question. It took a long time for the UK to think through a LE approach in Northern Ireland, even then it took PIRA just as long. Both Italy and Spain have used the tactic with great effect, but is little understood or documented IMO in English.

[davidbfpo]

This long running thread has been closed, a new thread has been created 'The Kurds are a changing' at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=17311