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Thread: Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

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    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Default Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

    I think much depends upon the proficiency of the Russian armed forces as of this moment. If they are as inept as they were when they first went into Chechnya, things could get very complicated for Vlad.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    situation on friday (found in another forum)


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    I found following post from Russian military forum. One sentence is that Ossetians shot Gerogian prisoners.

    На посту у этнических сёл наши солдаты собирают у бегущих грузин оружие и отправляют домой. Днём был мерзкий конфуз, осетины перестреляли 30 грузинских пленных, дезавуировав для мира зверства грузин против миротворцев. Грузины наглеют и ставят грады за административной границей рядом с обгоревшими остовами подбитых вчера. Танки и АА стреляют только через границу."
    http://www.milkavkaz.net/forum/viewt...asc&start=1470
    http://vif2ne.ru/nvk/forum/0/co/1663697.htm

    I have no clue how reliable this info is. Is this the beginning of blood feud? Geographically the ethnic villages are mixed.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...tailed_map.JPG

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    The Georgian government, apparently.

    The Georgians have displayed a good deal of operational incompetence as it seems. There's only one road (actually partially a tunnel!) between Russia and SO - they should have taken that in an air assault and blocked it (if not blown up altogether).
    The mountain passes are impassable in winter - the Georgian attack in summer.

    The initial attack doesn't seem to have won much terrain - apparently only a few kilometres at most before the Russian advance guard of few battalions arrived .

    Well, #### happens if you begin a war with a 1:100 inferior army that's incompetent.

    The Russians didn't produce flawless photos of their columns either. Poor camouflage, poor march organization, perfect targets for air/arty, irregular uniforms, riding on top of APCs...


    I've observed discussions about this where people refrained about an oh-so-good U.S.-trained Georgian brigade.
    Well, maybe we should create a thread to identify the armies that were trained by the U.S. military and didn't afterward suck asap?
    I've got difficulties to remember any.

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    Council Member Ron Humphrey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    The Georgian government, apparently.

    The Georgians have displayed a good deal of operational incompetence as it seems. There's only one road (actually partially a tunnel!) between Russia and SO - they should have taken that in an air assault and blocked it (if not blown up altogether).
    The mountain passes are impassable in winter - the Georgian attack in summer.

    The initial attack doesn't seem to have won much terrain - apparently only a few kilometres at most before the Russian advance guard of few battalions arrived .

    Well, #### happens if you begin a war with a 1:100 inferior army that's incompetent.

    The Russians didn't produce flawless photos of their columns either. Poor camouflage, poor march organization, perfect targets for air/arty, irregular uniforms, riding on top of APCs...


    I've observed discussions about this where people refrained about an oh-so-good U.S.-trained Georgian brigade.
    Well, maybe we should create a thread to identify the armies that were trained by the U.S. military and didn't afterward suck asap?
    I've got difficulties to remember any.
    For so eloquently pointing out the various reasons that this particular conflict and its origins seem only to fit the requirements of one of the participants.

    To assume that the Georgians or their trainers didn't realize what you say is true might be asking a little much


    It does however help to make it quite evident why now would have been a good time by Russian terms. And why preemption may have seemed acceptable.

    Just another way of looking at it
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    Well, with the Russians knocking at the door of Gori in the centre and Zhigdidi in the west (NYT), things are not exactly going swimmingly for the Georgians, though they did manage to make a casualty of what appears to have been 58th Army's commander. But with perhaps three MRD, elements of three Airborne formations, plus other Russian formations and units moving into or already in the AO, good as Georgia's regular troops may be, they've definitely got their work cut out for them. The Russians do not appear to be willing to settle for anything less than precipitating the fall of the present Georgian government. Maybe they won't even settle for that now.

    Some US advisers and contractors may really get to earn their pay soon (if not already); I'm sure they'll really looking foreward to that.
    Last edited by Norfolk; 08-10-2008 at 09:40 PM. Reason: Added Link

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    The Georgians have displayed a good deal of operational incompetence as it seems. There's only one road (actually partially a tunnel!) between Russia and SO - they should have taken that in an air assault and blocked it (if not blown up altogether).
    The mountain passes are impassable in winter - the Georgian attack in summer.
    I'm not sure that is an accurate judgement. The Georgians, like everyone else are hostages to the pre-conflict start positions, and political constraints. We won't know the truth for a couple of months.

    ... however, I bet all the "experts" will rush in with a whole series of "lessons from Georgia," which will mostly prove inaccurate, and be completely free from Georgian Staff and Command input.

    Unlike Shimon Naveh, I don't and never have rated the Russian Army. Talk Jedi Knight, but act Cave man! - they can never do what they set themselves up for.
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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Do you really think either case

    Quote Originally Posted by Rank amateur View Post
    ...When you're outnumbered, patiently waiting in an ambush is often the best tactical response. If you understand the situation, sometimes you don't need to wait very long, but since no one charged it, I have to assume that it wasn't a near ambush.
    was or is really that simple?

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    Quote Originally Posted by walrus View Post
    I am however surprised at the speed of Russia's action, which suggest to me that it had to have been premeditated. Those troops must have been on twelve hours notice to move or less, and my recollection is that you don't keep people standing around like that for very long. I'm also not sure that the reactive armor is left in place during training, those tanks look "" dressed", to me, although I was Inf.
    You may note that Georgia borders a Russian province called "Chechnya", and you may recall some unpleasantness there. Well, there is also a province immediately to the west of Chechnya between Chechnya and North Ossetia called Ingushetia which has also been restive due to Chechnyan fighters who fled to its mountains after the Russians defeated them in Chechnya. Because of all this, Russia had approximately 250,000 servicemen in the area six months ago as well as approximately 200 aircraft. There was/is a major Russian base in Vladikavkaz to deal with the Chechnyan situation to keep Chechnyan fighters from fleeing westward, indeed this is an ancient Russian fortress city built in 1784 to deal with the Chechnyans (who were rebelling then too, go figure). Which city, if you are looking at your maps, is 80km from the Roki tunnel, and then a further 40km to Tskinvali.

    In short, it is not unusual for Russia to have forces in the area that are on alert, and furthermore, not unusual for Russia to have some of their best forces in the area -- as, undoubtedly, those T-90 tanks with reactive armor indicate. It is a two hour drive from Vladikavkaz to Tskinvali at 60km/h, so Russian troops arriving in Tskinvali twelve hours after fighting begins indicates that it took about ten hours for the Russians to get sorted out and underway -- not a great showing for a rapid reaction unit intended to respond rapidly to problems in Chechnya, but certainly not indicative of anything other than the fact that this region has been problematic for Russia for quite some time and South Ossetia happens to be close to Russia's main base in the region. In other words, the rapidity of Russian response does not indicate the Russians were necessarily expecting this particular trouble. They have plenty of other troubles to expect in the region too. Indeed, one wonders what the Chechnyans are thinking, now that the main force to their west keeping them suppressed has taken a detour into Georgia...

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    Just today morning I found from Russian MoD site that they are denying involvement of Chechen "Vostok" and "Zapad" units. This info has vanished now. Reuters says that "Vostok" is in.

    http://search.us.reuters.com/query/?...%6b&s=USPHOTOS

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by badtux View Post
    In short, it is not unusual for Russia to have forces in the area that are on alert, and furthermore, not unusual for Russia to have some of their best forces in the area -- as, undoubtedly, those T-90 tanks with reactive armor indicate.
    I agree with your overall opinion, but I disagree about the description of the quality of the 19th MRD. It's one of the better units, but not equipped with significant quantities of 1990's or newer material.

    The 19th MRD was equipped with equipment that was mostly 1970's/1980's equipment.
    I am observing a board that focuses on hardware and they have running commentaries on the equipment on the published photos. They identified BTR-70 and T-62 (in a later wave), BMP-1 (probably part of the original peacekeeping force), mostly T-72 / BMP-2 / BTR-80.
    They did also spot a Tunguska somewhere.

    The general consensus was that the Georgian patchwork arsenal of 2nd hand equipment from Eastern Europe (and some American infantry equipment like BDUs) was in average more modern than the 19th MRD equipment.

    The 19th MRD is a rapid-raction division with a lower than usual share of conscripts and higer than usual expenditures for training.
    It still needed a rapid reaction force in itself (which formed the advance guard of few battalions) to have at least a part of it at a level of readiness approaching that of all Soviet ground forces in Central Europe during the 1980's.

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by badtux View Post
    In short, it is not unusual for Russia to have forces in the area that are on alert, and furthermore, not unusual for Russia to have some of their best forces in the area -- as, undoubtedly, those T-90 tanks with reactive armor indicate. It is a two hour drive from Vladikavkaz to Tskinvali at 60km/h, so Russian troops arriving in Tskinvali twelve hours after fighting begins indicates that it took about ten hours for the Russians to get sorted out and underway -- not a great showing for a rapid reaction unit intended to respond rapidly to problems in Chechnya, but certainly not indicative of anything other than the fact that this region has been problematic for Russia for quite some time and South Ossetia happens to be close to Russia's main base in the region. In other words, the rapidity of Russian response does not indicate the Russians were necessarily expecting this particular trouble. They have plenty of other troubles to expect in the region too. Indeed, one wonders what the Chechnyans are thinking, now that the main force to their west keeping them suppressed has taken a detour into Georgia...
    An excellent first post, Badtux !
    As time permits you, please do introduce yourself here.

    I would also add that Putin's 2004 Presidential order to create Mountain Troop brigades resulted initially in haphazard selections and often competing forces (glamor and better pay, if you will). Even as late as October 2007, weaponry and equipment for the new brigades were to come from defense arsenals, and more would need to be procured. That left one tiny little detail -- the construction of a base for the 33rd brigade in Botlikh (near the Chechen border) and the 34th brigade's base near Sochi and the Abkhaz border. Both brigades should have been formed and (ahem) "ready" by 01 December. Well, so much for that

    As we are all well aware of, Russia has been fighting rebels in the North Caucasus since 94, and Russian peacekeepers are currently deployed in the mountainous South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia. The so-called mountain brigades "more or less" ended up being heavy armored motor-rifle groups.

    I reckon that's why the peacekeepers ended up with artillery for the "rapid and initial" offensive

    Welcome aboard and regards, Stan
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