The David Kilcullen Collection (merged thread)

[Rank amateur]

Yes, it can delay it slightly; conversely, if the media sells ad space and time, it bleeds and leads and that, too is manipulation of public opinion, inadvertant or not. That aspect can negate any manipulation the other way. The 1/3 rule applies; as you point out, the bad guys know this and can work public opinion as well or better than we can and they aim for that wavering middle third. Casualties are only part of the picture; for a few they are THE criteria, for most Americans results matter. More. Much more

You may be right, but to a civilian you sound a lot like Kerry. Much better to sound like a winner: "It's the causalities stupid."

Perhaps the less the foreign CI gains the less responsibility they have for what happens after they leave.

I have little doubt that we're taking responsibility for their security, so that ultimately we won't be responsible for their security. The problem is that security is only one thing the various factions care about. It will be bartered away numerous times, between numerous factions, in a society where deals are never ending and the only permanent things are things we don't share: family, tribe, religion etc.

[Ken White]

You may be right, but to a civilian you sound a lot like Kerry. Much better to sound like a winner: "It's the causalities stupid."

a lot of civilians don't agree with you, which is my point.

Then again, one could agree that the causalities are indeed the cause...

Which doesn't mean the casualties are the causalities by any means and could mean that those who say they are the problem may be the ones who are stupid -- or maybe they just need to widen their conversational circles.

P.S.
Another PM just sent with text of first pasted