Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[Bob's World]

This is surely more complex than any of us will ever know.

With so much at stake, why would Israel or even the Saudis sit on their hands and watch?

When I read about Operation Ajax in 1953 Iran the thing that amazed me most was how such a Keystone Cops operation could actually work to topple a government. The key was that the British had been there a long time and had a well developed UW network in place, which they then convinced the US to lead the operation and loaned us their network. (They still work us like that far more than most Americans would like to admit, btw). The US employed that British network to incite the riots that supported the events that put the Shah into power. Just as insurgents leverage the populace in insurgency, so to do state and non-state actors in unconventional warfare.

Does Israel or Saudi Arabia or Great Britain or the US, etc, etc, etc have such networks in place in Egypt?? I don't know. I do know they have a confluence of long term access and national interests, so I recognize that it is likely such networks exist. Are any of these nations either employing their own network to shape events, or loaning their network to others to employ?? Again, we may never know.

Bottom line is that these things are complicated, and where interests are high, external forces will always come and work to shape things to their own advantage. Enemies become friends, and friends become enemies, it is all about shared and conflicting interests and leveraging what one can to gain an advantage. Egypt has to deal with all of this in addition to their own factions at work.

Things are rarely what they appear to be. There are those with anti-Iran agendas that are pointing fingers at Iran. There are those from the "ideology/terrorism" community who point fingers at the Muslim Brotherhood. There are those who are pro-Israel who rail about the implications to Israeli security.

The voice getting lost is that for transitioning as peacefully as possible to a more stable Egypt under a government of their own determination, with a legitimacy recognized by their own populace, and that participates rationally within the global community.

[Cole]

This is surely more complex than any of us will ever know.

With so much at stake, why would Israel or even the Saudis sit on their hands and watch?

Or Iran, or Hezbollah, or China/Russia, or Hamas.

Word of Omar Suleiman's (new V.P.) attempted assassination several days ago may cast some light on timing of the pro-government crackdown. The sabotage of a natural gas pipeline leading from Egypt to Israel is another example.

The voice getting lost is that for transitioning as peacefully as possible to a more stable Egypt under a government of their own determination, with a legitimacy recognized by their own populace, and that participates rationally within the global community.

It's easy to claim we own the high ground and to bad mouth perceived despots for exploiting unseemly advantages in their own world. Then you look at appointment of former GE CEOs to the government who have supported one political side, and then see new initiatives for light bulbs, look at unions getting health care exemptions, and attempts to legitimize illegal immigration to gain votes...we start to not look a lot different than Mubarak and his cronies.

Where we DO stand out is the example of the U.S. military in the past twenty years in showing reasonable use of force. Would Egypt's Army have shown this kind of restraint in earlier days? Doubtful.

So when folks say we should use a heavier hand in places like Afghanistan, just think of the example that would set to other militaries of the world. We should thank our lucky stars that pop-centric COIN in Afghanistan, democratization of Iraq, and suppression of genocide in the Balkans is leading by example in ways far more constructive than talking the talk on how democracy makes all the difference.

[Bob's World]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=1357781


For the US, the story of 1953 Iran is an important one to understand when looking at Egypt today.

[slapout9]

Link to world trends and predictions for 2011. This was posted before the situation in Egypt, take a close look at trends 1,4,and 9. I am not that familiar with Gerald Celente but looks like he is off to a pretty good start.



http://www.lewrockwell.com/celente/celente59.1.html

[CrowBat]

This is surely more complex than any of us will ever know.

With so much at stake, why would Israel or even the Saudis sit on their hands and watch?

Why not the USA themselves?

For example, see the following cable released by WikiLeaks to The Telegraph and published on 28 January 2011: Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising

Here's the text of the cable: Link

Did something like "Operation Ajax II" back-fire this time?

I can easily identify 33 years of provocations of Arabs by the U.S. (taking the first delivery of F-4 Phantom II in 1968 as marking).

I would start with saving al-Sauds from starvation with help of a shipload of silver Dollars, back in 1942...

[Pete]

The slang word "boondocks" meaning jungle or out in the country comes from a Philippine Tagalog dialect word for mountain. It apparently entered the American vocabulary when we were civilizing with Krag rifles.

[Dayuhan]

The slang word "boondocks" meaning jungle or out in the country comes from a Philippine Tagalog dialect word for mountain. It apparently entered the American vocabulary when we were civilizing with Krag rifles.

Yes, "boondocks" comes from the Tagalog (it's a language, not a dialect) bundok, meaning mountain or highlands.

A portion and a half of greasy adobo to whoever knows the other Tagalog word adopted into English during the "civilize 'em with a Krag" days... (there's only one other that I know of, and if someone has a third I'm seriously impressed).

[Cole]

Yes, "boondocks" comes from the Tagalog (it's a language, not a dialect) bundok, meaning mountain or highlands.

A portion and a half of greasy adobo to whoever knows the other Tagalog word adopted into English during the "civilize 'em with a Krag" days... (there's only one other that I know of, and if someone has a third I'm seriously impressed).

My bet is bolo. Google was my friend.

Also liked the more modern slang terms CIA (certified Imelda admirer) and "forgets" for old person. I resemble that latter term...but at least at nearly 56 I can still chest press and fly 255 a dozen times and elliptical for half an hour at resistance level 13.

I know, you're not impressed. You just go out and climb a boondocks

My 47 year old bro did that recently climbing Mt Whitney (14.505') with his wife!

[Dayuhan]

Ever hear the old joke about two men coming upon a Grizzly bear and the one says, "Run," and takes off to which the other says "you can't outrun a bear." The first replies, "That maybe true but I only gotta out run you." In this case Iran is the bear. Wouldn't you prefer both the U.S. and Israel to have a better hunting rifle and Israel to be the first target of the bear?

Second analogy: If your ship is sinking in water that will cause hypothermia and death in 10 minutes and a rescue ship (election) is 15 minutes away and you have nothing resembling a life raft now, do you jump now?

And you certainly don't need someone from the rescue ship telling you over the radio to jump now...or your young sailors who have no clue what hypothermia (or running a country) involves.

I don't see a bear on the horizon, and our ship isn't sinking. Mubarak's is, but it doesn't have to be ours, in fact it had better not be ours, because it's already below the surface and I don't see it coming back up. Our wise rats need to hop off his ship and back onto ours, where they belong. The elections may be coming and they may be a rescue, but the choice of waiting or not ain't ours to make. Let the crowd toss Mubarak, let a caretaker handle the intervening time, the rescue arrives anyway. Last thing we want to do is be seen trying to keep him in power.

First necessary realization: Mubarak is done. The US couldn't resurrect him if we tried, and trying would just be hitching ourselves to a fallen star. There's no debate over whether to try to keep Mubarak in power; we cannot reanimate a corpse. The only reasonable debate is over whether and to what extent we can or should try to influence the transition.

Second necessary realization: a post-Mubarak Egypt does not have to be an Islamist nightmare or an Iranian clone. Of course the Israelis, and a few others, will wave that threat at us in an effort to persuade us to try to shape the new Egypt to their liking, but that would be an effort well worth resisting. I think the Islamists will miss Mubarak more than we do, and that we'll discover that the notion of Mubarak as the last bulwark against Egyptian Islamic radicalism is as completely invalid as the notion of Marcos as the last bulwark against Philippine Communism was.

Mubarak is history, and history is a one way street. We need to deal with it and deal with what comes after. It will be complicated, but it always is. He wasn't ever gonna last forever.

And on the aside...

My bet is bolo. Google was my friend.

Never really though "bolo" got adopted into English. The word is "cooties", from the Tagalog "kuto", for head lice.

Also liked the more modern slang terms CIA (certified Imelda admirer) and "forgets" for old person.

Did anyone ever admire Imelda, other than Fabian Ver? A joke from the old days...

The Marcos family were in their jet flying back from the US. They flew over a barangay, and little Irene looked down and saw the poor people, and ran to her father and said" "Tatay, I want to make a thousand Filipinos happy, can I have 100,000 pesos?". So Ferdinand pulled 100,000 out of his pocket, the plane flew over the barangay, they threw the money out and everyone was happy.

Then they flew over a poblacion, and little Imee looked down and saw the poor people, and ran to her father and said" "Tatay, I want to make ten thousand Filipinos happy, can I have a million pesos?". So Ferdinand pulled a million out of his suitcase, the plane flew over the poblacion, they threw the money out and everyone was happy.

Then they came to Manila, and little Bongbong looked down and saw the poor people, and ran to his father and said" "Tatay, I want to make 15 million Filipinos happy, can I have a billion pesos?"

Ferdinand thought about that for a moment and replied...

"Just fetch your mother."


I'm sure there are some great Mubarak jokes flying around Cairo right now; somebody should collect them.

And yeah, I mostly just run around the bundoks. We use what we've got, and I'm in the middle of them...

[Bob's World]

Why not the USA themselves?

For example, see the following cable released by WikiLeaks to The Telegraph and published on 28 January 2011: Egypt protests: America's secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising

Here's the text of the cable: Link

Did something like "Operation Ajax II" back-fire this time?

I would start with saving al-Sauds from starvation with help of a shipload of silver Dollars, back in 1942...

Always possible. Would explain some of the finger pointing at Iran coming from the line up of SMEs enlisted by the media.