Somalia: not piracy catch all thread

[AdamG]

It's a gruesome display seen many times over the years in Mogadishu: The bodies of dead soldiers dragged through the streets. Somalis angry over 20 years of violence say they do it in hopes of driving out African Union forces.

The latest incident happened Thursday, when the body of a fighter who appeared to be a member of the AU's peacekeeping mission was pulled through the streets by a rope. The spokesman for the country's most dangerous militant group, al-Shabab, also displayed a body alongside documents that identified the man as a Ugandan soldier.

"Today we are celebrating the death and blood of your sons," Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage said at a news conference Thursday.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...mid=obinsource

[JMA]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...mid=obinsource

A quote from the article states "The people drag the corpses to force these so-called peacekeepers to leave the country,..."

Do they think it will work because they think it was that which worked to get the US out or because that would work if applied against them?

[davidbfpo]

In recent weeks the extent of a drought in the region has appeared, linked to reports of an increasing flow of refugees out of Somalia, notably into Kenya and a decision by Al-Shabaab to allow international aid into the areas it controls. All these matters are in the media.

The Quillam Foundation (London think tank) has published a short report on the links between extremists in Somalia and Yemen. I noted references to fighters and experts moving to the Yemen. Link:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/im...ab14july11.pdf

Personally I am not convinced, partly due to geography and logistics. Sometime ago I did post on the flow of refugees across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen, so there is a Somali presence already - who had fled what Al-Shabaab had helped create.

[davidbfpo]

Forgiven my (comment), but I found this short article too optimistic and the sub-title 'With a little more donor support, international forces can help drive al-Shabab out of Mogadishu'. The author is the head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

We now effectively control two-thirds of the city -- some 16 square miles -- with more than two dozen security outposts scattered throughout the city. More importantly, this has created a relatively safe haven for 80 percent of the estimated 2 million people who live in Mogadishu's southwestern neighborhoods.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...malia?page=0,0

Incidentally a more detailed, military account appeared in the June/July RUSI Journal by ANISOM's military commander.

[davidbfpo]

Two complimentary articles on Somalia and Al-Shabab, which explain the complexities of the situation. First, written late June 2011 opens with:[quuote]While cooperation between international forces, the Somali army and allied militias have delivered victories against Al-Shabab this spring, the political infighting and corruption of the Transitional Federal Government prevents further successes.[/quote]

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...-al-shabab-in-

Second, published today opens with:

...looks at Somalia’s Al-Shabab insurgents, describing how they relate to the country’s more conventional governance structures, and the difficulties the East African famine has thrown up for the group.

Concludes:

As long as the TFG remains an unviable alternative in the eyes of the local population to the insurgent movement, it is unlikely that Al-Shabab will disappear.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...habab%E2%80%99

Meantime a large part of Somalia suffers from a famine, although I note much of the recent TV footage of refugees arriving in Mogadishu has no adult-age males with their families. Which makes me suspect that the starving maybe being "encouraged" to leave the hinterland, largely Al-Shabab controlled, for Mogadishu, where any "failure" can be attributed to the TFG and it's Western friends.

[JMA]

Meantime a large part of Somalia suffers from a famine, although I note much of the recent TV footage of refugees arriving in Mogadishu has no adult-age males with their families. Which makes me suspect that the starving maybe being "encouraged" to leave the hinterland, largely Al-Shabab controlled, for Mogadishu, where any "failure" can be attributed to the TFG and it's Western friends.

Al-Shabab can't feed them so they make it the problem of the traditional donor nations.

Almost clever. The removal of the civilian non-combatant population from A-Shabab controlled areas allows them to become virtual free fire zones and where the remaining food stocks can be targeted to deal Al-Shabab a solid blow.

Locate them with the aid of UAVs then visit them with significant air delivered ordinance.

Any takers?

[AdamG]

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Somali President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed said on Saturday his military had defeated Islamist rebels battling to overthrow his Western-backed government after the al Shabaab group began withdrawing fighters from the capital Mogadishu.

Rejecting Ahmed's claim to have quashed al Shabaab's four-year insurgency, the militants' spokesman, Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage, said their retreat was tactical only and that they were holding their positions elsewhere in the anarchic country.

http://af.reuters.com/article/topNew...110806?sp=true

Somalia's al-Shabab Islamist rebels have pulled out of all positions in the Somali capital of Mogadishu, government and rebel spokesmen say. President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed declared the rebels defeated after they left overnight on trucks. However, al-Shabab described the move as a "change of military tactics".*

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14430283




What a change of Shabab tactics might look like