Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition? (New title)

[Ken White]

AdamG;126118

(Reuters) - Iran raised the prospect on Tuesday of sending military ships close to the United States' Atlantic coast, in what would be a major escalation of tensions between the long-standing adversaries.

The USN will laugh themselves into a state of discombobulation ...

[AdamG]

AdamG;126118The USN will laugh themselves into a state of discombobulation ...

On the surface, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari's trash-talk reads like an ONION article. I'm not familiar enough with the man to know if he's an addled old man prone to running his mouth, but what if this was more along the lines of a slip of the tongue?

This board being all about the Asymmetrical Threats and whatnot, here's something to chew on from five years ago...

A Pentagon assessment of the U.S. capability to defend the homeland against incoming enemy cruise missiles has found what it calls “capability gaps” that may not be solved until 2015.
As a result, the Air Force's directorate of operational capability requirements is leading a Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System study “to determine the best approaches for mitigating high-risk joint gaps in the [Homeland Air and Cruise Missile Defense of North America] mission area,” according to an Aug. 9 request for information posted on Federal Business Opportunities.

Pentagon and Missile Defense Agency officials increasingly are concerned with the threat of terrorists using a cargo ship to fire cruise and ballistic missiles just off U.S. shores but outside its territorial waters.

http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,110199,00.html

[Ken White]

Nor is the potential for their actually being able to mount such a deployments with their half dozen submarines or an equal number of DD/FF types and one tanker. They do have some cargo vessels that could make the trip unrefueled but those aren't "military ships"...

Even though we keep an eye on their ships and aircraft out in the world, they could do what you imply: "Pentagon and Missile Defense Agency officials increasingly are concerned with the threat of terrorists using a cargo ship to fire cruise and ballistic missiles just off U.S. shores but outside its territorial waters. ".

That raises four questions, two before the act -- in spite of our surveillance could they actually get here and launch such an attack? Why would they do that? Those two not withstanding, should they actually launch such an attack, while there would probably be symbolic damage should that occur, there are two questions thus raised; how much damage did they really cause to the rather large US land mass and and concomitantly large population? What would happen to the 'fleet' of the Iraniha and to Iran if they did?

While the cred of the Admiral isn't really material, it is worth noting that the Iranian hierarchy does tend to bluster and portend things they really have no intention of doing. The Mullahs are dotty but they aren't stupid. Some time spent in Iran gave me a firm belief that they bluster and bluff a great deal -- haggling is a national sport, after all -- but are really pretty shrewd when it comes to what they actually do.

Some seem to have or look for plenty to worry about. That's fine but I'll put this one in 'highly unlikely' category with respect to occurrence and possible damage even if it did -- and go back to dozing...

[Fuchs]

Isn't it obvious to invite the ship to a friendly visit to a harbour such a NY when it's already so close after such a long journey?

It's a win/win, no matter declined or not.

[Levi]

Maybe the leadership of Iran looks out over the Gulf, and thinks "Wow. Look at all those American ships. That must be ALL of them. They have left their coasts undefended."

I don't know what the Iranian Navy consists of. I do know what the seventh fleet consisted of in 1992 to 96.

I don't often get to use the word gobsmacked. But if Iran was so foolhardy and inept as to park a threat off the east coast...

Comedic relief. "Sir, visual contact to starboard. It's the Iranian Navy. Shall I scramble the alert 5?"

"Nah."