Understanding Indian Insurgencies

[Bob's World]

Well, if one were to apply The Jones Insurgency Model (shameless plug acknowledged) to the Governance / Populace dynamics of India, as well as China; that in the long run the U.S. has little to worry about either of these emerging economic powerhouses achieving their full potential.

They are quite likely doomed to devolve into debilitating insurgencies as the gap widens between the haves and have nots; exacerbating the four causal factors of Poor Governance.

[Kevin23]

Well, if one were to apply The Jones Insurgency Model (shameless plug acknowledged) to the Governance / Populace dynamics of India, as well as China; that in the long run the U.S. has little to worry about either of these emerging economic powerhouses achieving their full potential.

They are quite likely doomed to devolve into debilitating insurgencies as the gap widens between the haves and have nots; exacerbating the four causal factors of Poor Governance.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that both the PRC and India will succumb as governments to internal disturbances or insurgencies, because even under the Jones model both governments are attempting to at least play to the interests of all groups in their respective countries.. Despite the fact that all factors of poor governance exist in China and India. For example, India is democracy in which groups across the political, economic, and social spectrum have representation in which the interests and grievances of all groups are played to. In the case of China, the government in Beijing is also beginning to address some of the issues and problems under the Jones Model in the various provinces of China, with one instance of this being the rural-urban divide which has also translated into a economic/class divide as well.

On the last notes to this point, industrializing nations within the Western World also exhibited many of the symptoms under the Jones Model but managed to evolve into successful industrialized countries. Also in the cases of both China and India, both nations have a history of varying degrees of internal disorder, so at least in the case of India what makes such disturbances unusual?

However then again in world history, the issue of two nations with populations of a billion plus people and the conflicting interests and grievances that such a population brings.

[tequila]

An article in The Deccan Chronicle from a former IPS officer, contrasting how Andra Pradesh tackled Naxalism in the 1990s with the current special police/local militia offensive being undertaken in Chhattisgarh:

Make the war public

* A ban was imposed on the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) and its front organisations like Radical Students’ Union and Progressive Democratic Students’ Union to check activities like bandhs and to stop fresh recruitment.

* A new legislation, Public Security Act, cut off the nexus between Naxals and their sympathisers in the affected villages.

* Intensive development of interior areas, particularly of roads and communications, was undertaken.

* A solution was sought to the various issues raised by extremists through a special cell functioning in the chief minister’s office.

* Employment was promoted in a big way. There was, in fact, a special focus on employing tribals in good numbers in all government departments, particularly the police, to give them a greater sense of participation in governance.

* Procurement of forest produce was taken away from forest contractors and entrusted with government corporations, thereby cutting off the flow of funds to extremists.

* A rehabilitation policy for those extremists wanting to leave the movement was put into action.

* Perception management, or counter-propaganda, through well-trained cultural troupes was undertaken.

A major issue in India is the drive to nationalize/federalize the Naxalite insurgency by bringing in the Army. Historically, most Indian insurgencies (excepting Kashmir) were tackled and resolved by the police at the state level.

[Jedburgh]

A series of articles from IPCS in New Delhi, published 14-21 June 2010:

Countering the Naxal Threat I: An Analysis of Earlier Efforts

Countering the Naxal Threat II: A Case for Specialized Units

Countering the Naxal Threat III: Use the CRPF and Avoid the Army

Countering the Naxal Threat IV: Military as an Option?

[Kevin23]

Here is an interesting article from Foreign Policy, about how the mining situation in the Naxalite infected region is both fueling their cause and providing funding and support to their operations.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...re_in_the_hole

[davidbfpo]

In summary:

India's long-running Maoist insurgency has increased in intensity in recent months. In April, 76 government troops were killed by Naxalite guerrillas in a brutal hit-and-run ambush near Chintalnar in Dantewada district in the central state of Chhattisgarh – the largest Naxalite strike in the group's 43-year history. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has described the rebellion as 'India's gravest security threat.

An IISS Strategic Comment:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ist-challenge/

Which ends with:

In the longer term, India's growing prosperity offers a window to tackle the structural roots of the conflict – but there must be doubt about whether the government has either the will or the political capital to use this opportunity.

[blueblood]

Naxalism is the result of the failed policies of the Indian National Congress party which ruled India most of the time since independence in 1947. They introduced some laws and acts which were socialism inspired like Jamindari Act and Chakbandi Act which abolished Jamindari practice ( literal meaning land owners ). Jamindars were Upper Class Hindu and Muslim families generally related to the ruling Royal families of their respective states or are on good terms with British Raj holding most of the land in their villages. It was strictly implemented in most of the country but not in some remote tribal areas.

The result was that tribals were denied the land which constitutionally belonged to them and were oppressed by upper caste Hindus. Since, no other political party was capable of challenging Congress on national level, they ruled the way they wanted ignoring problems and further more by playing dirty vote bank politics. Communist leaders decided to oppose and they failed miserably when they contested for elections because of the lack of support from most of the tribals except in West Bengal which was a strong hold of Communism.

A movement which was started to provide justice to tribals lost it's genuineness as soon as CPI(Maoist) lost the elections fair and square and took the arms to "liberate" the tribals. So, even today you will find Naxalite propaganda machine telling the tribals all sorts of lies like Government is building roads so that can reach you to kill you, illegal mining and abducting teachers and other civil servants just to keep tribals the way they are i.e innocent and uneducated and if not then a bullet in the head.

They are losing this war and their popularity among the tribals since the government has started programs to get rid of headache and proper development of these areas is on it's way.

There is another misconception that a large number of districts in India is affected by Naxalism. A Naxalite arms factory was discovered at the heart of the city Bhopal barely 500 m from my home but it doesn't mean that the city is Naxalite infected as we never had any casualty in the last 40 years. Technically it is but practically not.

You can compare it with the Times Square incident, yes someone tried to detonate a bomb but it doesn't mean that NY is terrorism infected.

[blueblood]

Well, if one were to apply The Jones Insurgency Model (shameless plug acknowledged) to the Governance / Populace dynamics of India, as well as China; that in the long run the U.S. has little to worry about either of these emerging economic powerhouses achieving their full potential.

They are quite likely doomed to devolve into debilitating insurgencies as the gap widens between the haves and have nots; exacerbating the four causal factors of Poor Governance.

If you compare present day India with US in the 1850-60s we are doing way much better if we consider the time when 60 years have passed since they got their independence.

[Ray]

If I may give another perspective to Insurgencies in India.

Contrary to the popular belief, democracy has been not been introduced to India by the West nor was or is alien to India. It has been functioning in the ancient times (Ram Rajya). Ram Rajya aimed at transparency in public affairs, sanctity of contract and accountability to people; in short, the dharma of good governance.


That apart, owing to the tribal/ insular community structure, the activities of governance emanated from the village level (panchayati raj). This practice is still followed, but in the present environment, is enmeshed in politics and village rivalries.

Historically, owing to various conquest, this Ram Rajya faded at the highest level of governance since governance was at the whims of the Conqueror, it nevertheless continued to flourish at the village level. Even, the Zamindari system pf British India was village or district oriented, even if not the ideal form of Ram Rajya or Panchayati Raj.

Therefore, notwithstanding the conquests and the governance pattern of the rulers. the importance of the village, their tribal/ community loyalties/ the writ of their leaders remained an important aspect of Indian governance matrix and its role in shaping the destiny of the area.

Rewinding to the present, in the tribal and remote areas, the writ of the State government or the Union (Federal) government is evident more in default than in practice. Therefore, the village heads, more or less, decides the fate of the villages.

Left to their means without cognizable government presence and activities, the people of the tribal/ remote areas, felt alienated and could perceive the neglect. In this void, vested interests (be they political or religious) played their part. They not only assisted in solving the individual's or the communities problems but also contributed to the development, even if marginal, of these tribal/ remote areas. The Caste system worked in the favour of both the religious and the political organisers since they broke down this barrier and gave the people an equality that they had never believed existed! This was 'powerful medicine'!!

These vested interests, because of their yeoman activities, including giving the tribal or neglected people, a meaning to life and ambition, endeared themselves to the people of the villages and the area. The official government, for good reasons, became non existent as far as these people were concerned. It mattered little to the rare petty official of the Government, who may have been stationed there, or who came a visiting as a part of his duty.

Having become a force to reckon with, these vested interests pursued their agenda, Having proved the lack of interest mainstream India had for the neglected people of the area, were able to indoctrinate them with a new 'identity' (at places based on religion and separate ethnic root, and at place, based on a social and political root).

These 'separatisms' starting as small movements. It caught the imagination of many like bushfire by those who felt that they were deprived and it finally such movements rode rough into large movements culminating in insurgencies.

The above is but a very broad template. Notwithstanding, each insurgency has its own chemistry within this broad framework.

[davidbfpo]

An Indian article reflecting on the long identified threat from Maoist insurgency and what has not been done:http://www.sunday-guardian.com/analy...-maoist-menace

Not that these factors do not exist elsewhere.

Ends with:

Government conferences or National Security Advisory Board deliberations will not work since they do not have grassroots knowledge.

Which is a reminder that SWC has a part to play, assuming those way above read here.

[davidbfpo]

A SWJ article 'Countering Insurgency In South Asia: Three Approaches', which is wide-ranging and worth a read, if not study:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...ree-approaches

[Ray]

A SWJ article 'Countering Insurgency In South Asia: Three Approaches', which is wide-ranging and worth a read, if not study:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...ree-approaches

A very well written and analysed article.

It analyses the Indian, US and Pakistani approaches and initiative in LIC/ COIN rather well.

Indeed, it is worth a look by those who observe the Afghanistan case both academically as also hands on.

[Ray]

In continuation to the post in which Blueblood has correctly mentioned about Naxalism and the causes, it is worth noting that feudalism was still prevalent in some place. In fact, in India’s ‘cow belt’, which includes UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, a very mild form and even impotent, still struggles to remain relevant with an equal backlash, at times, violent.

Thanks to the abolition of the Zamindari Act, Bhoodan Movement and the West Bengal (a state that has 23 years plus of governance) agrarian reforms, there has been an awakening of the peasants and tillers of the land of the exploitation that came into being because of the Permanent Settlement enacted by Lord Cornwallis, leading to absentee Landlordism. This is what the root of the peasant unrest is, amongst other causes as given by Blueblood.

With NGOs funded by foreign funds and it being fashionable to spout western liberalism, there has been an unprecedented growth of bleeding hearts of all hues, western (mostly leftist) and genuine leftist (sponsored by left organisation having links with left countries). Therefore, anything that is done for economic progress is taken to be anti people. To be true, India’s natural resources are untapped in areas where ingress has been difficult and was never exploited by either the British or the post independent Indian govts. These areas are inhabited by the deprived and the tribals ( a large majority being Christians supported by evangelist churches). It maybe noted that the even the first of the insurgencies i.e. NE has been foundationed by the Church. Their is a belief in India that this was CIA inspired since at that time, the US was not quite amenable to India!!

With the economic development essential for India, it has become necessary to prospect in areas that are untapped and yet lucrative as per surveys. However, this would upset forest lands and where tribal live. It is an ideal cause for environmentalists and ‘human rights’ organisations, mostly funded by vested foreign powers to ensure that the progress of India is halted in its tracks for obvious reasons, given that there is already one economic power that is causing problems, as also for the rising power, to ensure that none other rises!!

At the same time, there is no doubt that the exploitation would affect lives and their way of life of many.

It is a Catch 22 situation.