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Old 5 Days Ago   #1
AdamG
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Default LIVE: Coup under way in Zimbabwe?

Quote:
A coup is reportedly under way in Zimbabwe, with reports on social media claiming that the head of Zimbabwe military Constantino Chiwenga has given President Robert Mugabe 24 hours to vacate office after sacking his vice president Emmerson Mnangagwa.
https://www.news24.com/Africa/Zimbab...babwe-20171114
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Old 5 Days Ago   #2
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Default A coup: I have m' doubts

So far we have reports on a few APC moving along a traditional route and one broke down. If this was a coup it is hardly significant, as a signal it might resonate.

The ZNA are very unlikely IMHO to be seen as "friends of the people", given their role in suppressing protests and their leader's enrichment. Is this just another episode in the competition for power? As this BBC News item suggests:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41984813
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Old 5 Days Ago   #3
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A witness who spoke to Reuters saw two tanks* parked up on the main road from Harare to Chinhoyi, about 20 km (14 miles) from the city. Social Media has seen ambiguous photos of military personnel making their way to the Capital.
The strong show of force comes just a day after the armed forces said they would step in ‘if Mugabe was to dismiss any further army officials’. The fired Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa shares a very cosy relationship with the army, and it seems like they are throwing their support behind him following his dismissal.
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/watc...-coup-attempt/

* Actually, Chinese-made APCs.

Looks like a Type 89/90 ARV (six road wheels, boom crane & box body rear hull) towing the Type YW309 APC. Even coin toss between a vehicle recovery mission and an actual road movement, given where we're talking about.
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Last edited by AdamG; 5 Days Ago at 10:43 PM.
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Old 5 Days Ago   #4
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Default The latest on Zimbabwe from AP

https://apnews.com/91bb7f9b5f2f4d00b...&utm_medium=AP

TRUNCATED

5:50 a.m.
  • Zimbabwe’s army urges other security services to “cooperate for the good of our country,” warning that “any provocation will be met with an appropriate response.”
  • The statement read out early Wednesday on state-run television calls on troops to return to barracks immediately, with all leave canceled.
  • It says that if the country’s degenerating political, social and economic situation is not addressed, it “may result in a violent conflict.”
  • The army insists that this is not a military takeover and that President Robert Mugabe’s security is guaranteed.

4:55 a.m.
  • Zimbabwe’s army has announced that “this is not a military takeover” and that President Robert Mugabe and his family are safe and sound.
  • “We are only targeting criminals around who him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice,” the army announced on state-run media.
  • The army statement says that “as soon as we have accomplished our mission, we expect that the situation will return to normalcy.”
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Old 5 Days Ago   #5
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Default It's not a coup, it's a transition

A curious event in Harare, the army say we have moved, Robert Mugabe and family are safe and sounds of artillery fire in the north of the city. This is not a coup, a bloodless transition and the dismissed Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa is reportedly back in town. With the Presidential Guard still on duty.

BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-41992351

A running story:https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...rt-mugabe-live
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Old 5 Days Ago   #6
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Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
This is not a coup, a bloodless transition and etc & etc


Because all bloodless transitions of power are punctuated by High Explosives.

From the AP updates -

Quote:
HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) --
6:50 a.m.
The Zimbabwe army's takeover of the state broadcaster and action against some members of President Robert Mugabe's government has been praised by the chairman of the Liberation War Veterans' Association.
Chris Mutsvangwa, head of the war veterans' group issued a statement from Johannesburg praising Army General Constantino Chiwenga for carrying out "a bloodless correction of gross abuse of power." The statement said the army will return Zimbabwe to "genuine democracy."
Quack

Quote:
Opposition leader Tendai Biti told Sky News a transitional authority is needed to secure a road map to democracy.
He said: "If it flaps like a duck, waggles like a duck, then it's a duck. This is a coup, there's no question about that.
"We condemn the extra-legal extraction of power from an elected civilian authority, but having said that we must acknowledge the deep structural underlying causes that would have led the army to do what they are doing now, whether it's pacification or whatever lipstick or mascara they might want to put on (it).
"This is Robert Mugabe's Waterloo and he must accept that. I pray the army do not harm him, I pray that they give him free passage if he wants to leave Zimbabwe."
https://news.sky.com/story/military-...purge-11126302
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Last edited by AdamG; 5 Days Ago at 11:00 AM. Reason: Added more quacking
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Old 4 Days Ago   #7
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Nothing to see here. Stop reading now. Move along.

South Africa’s Ruling ANC Says Wont Intervene In Zimbabwe [totally not a] Coup
https://www.pazimbabwe.com/world-new...abwe-coup.html
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Old 3 Days Ago   #8
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Default What happened and why

It has been a long time since Zimbabwe has been on the front page of UK papers, even the free ones and often the lead item on TV news. So looking around I found these articles that help to explain what happened and why.

An academic background paper on the Zimbabwe military and their commercial activity - copied from China: 'The Curse of Military Commercialism in State Enterprises and Parastatals in Zimbabwe'.
Link:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...0.2016.1145981

By an American academic @ Edinburgh University: 'Mugabe's fall from grace unlikely to end Zimbabwe's political infighting and economic decay' and sub-titled The outlook in the breadbasket of southern Africa looks far from rosy with a leadership new in name alone.
Link:https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/c...decay-1.676238

Self-explanatory and short via WaPo: 'To understand the coup in Zimbabwe, you need to know about Grace Mugabe' by a Zimbabwean in exile.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/ampht...-grace-mugabe/

Another author in exile: 'Power to the party: Zimbabwe’s coup isn’t a revolution but a consolidation'. This ends with the best summary I read today:
Quote:
What has happened in the past two weeks, and has come to fruition in the past 48 hours, is ultimately an internal adjustment. From the perspective of ZANU-PF, an immature and greedy challenger has now been silenced by the adults in the room. This is no revolution giving the power to the people. The army has done its duty in giving the power back to the Party.
Link:http://africanarguments.org/2017/11/...onsolidation/?
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Old 3 Days Ago   #9
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One of the generals behind the move, army chief Constantino Chiwenga, visited Beijing last week — just days before tanks rolled into the streets of Harare.

China, which has enjoyed a close diplomatic and economic relationship with Zimbabwe for years, says Chiwenga’s visit was routine and part of a "normal military exchange.”

Asked if Chiwenga had briefed China on coup plans, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang would not discuss specifics.

Miles Blessing Tendi, a lecturer in African history and politics at the University of Oxford, says there is no way to be certain if China knew about Mugabe's fate but believes China's respect for sovereignty would make their involvement uncharacteristic.

“Above all else [China] wants stability, and a coup is a recipe for instability. So this does not sound like a Chinese move," Tendi said. "Something like this is always going to be held in secret talks. No one is going to come out and confirm it, so we may never know for sure."
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/z...mugabe-n821286
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Old 2 Days Ago   #10
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Default What happened and why: Part Two

Below is a link to mainly academic community outlet 'The Conversation' with a number of new SME articles and few from the archive.

Professor Chan comments on the PRC link:
Quote:
It is no coincidence that General Constantine Chiwenga, the Zimbabwe army chief, was visiting China when Mnangagwa was booted out. It seems likely that Chiwenga discussed his plan to intervene with the Chinese. Having supported and trained Mugabe’s rebel liberation army in the late 1970s and helped finance the country’s grossly mismanaged economy, Bejing must be relieved at the prospect of a return to actual economic management.
Link:https://theconversationuk.cmail20.co...5E7602346EC846
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Old 1 Day Ago   #11
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Default "Slow Motion Coup" should enter the SWJ lexicon

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Though the military that seized control after rolling out the tanks in the early hours of Wednesday was at pains to portray its takeover as anything but a coup, the reality is that the generals are now calling the shots. Troops are deployed on the streets of the capital, Harare, and at key security points, including the airport, only last week renamed the Robert Mugabe International Airport by a state apparatus that had one eye on a post-Mugabe era.What one observer called a “slow motion coup” is now playing out in Zimbabwe as the armed forces, led by General Constantino Chiwenga, seek to ease out the old regime and bring in something new. They are trying to do so in a manner that is palatable to regional powers, particularly South Africa, which have made clear they do not consider military coups an acceptable form of regime change.
https://www.ft.com/content/956bd71e-...8-7a9fb7d6163e
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Old 1 Day Ago   #12
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Default It's really the young -v- the old?

Yes the competition for power appears to be over who sits in the chair and nearby - within ZANU-PF - and somehow party branches, including the Women's League (previously Grace Mugabe's fiefdom) have called upon Robert Mugabe to stand down.

This could far more significant, especially if there are really free & fair elections:
Quote:
They make up a majority of Zimbabweans, with around three-quarters of the population under 35 years old today, and have borne the worst brunt of years of economic mismanagement.Millions of high-school and university graduates produced by one of Africa’s best education systems have sought work abroad as industry collapsed and inflation sky-rocketed. Others struggle to make ends meet with menial or manual piecemeal labour that makes no use of their skills.
The unexpected ousting of a man whose rule seemed like it would never end has brought the first glimpse of hope in years to many of them.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-the-abnormal
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Old 15 Hours Ago   #13
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Default All change, ah I'm not resigning says Cde Robert

I have just listened to Robert Mugabe's TV broadcast, where he did not resign; so one must wonder why the saviours of the nation / party let him do this. Everyone knows he is an old man and has had better days. The broadcast ended with some mumbles not normally broadcast.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-a...ses-the-nation

The accompanying BBC report refers to:
Quote:
In a live TV address, Mr Mugabe said he would preside over the ruling party's congress in December.The Zanu-PF earlier sacked him as party leader, and gave him less than 24 hours to resign as president or be impeached.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-42046911


Via Twitter one of the BBC's correspondents:
Quote:
So what now? The war veterans threatened more protests, the party threatened to impeach him, if he didn't step down... And yet the generals went along with tonight's long-winded, wordy display of studied ambiguity.
As for the most likely current successor BBC Radio Four has a short profile of the 'Crocodile' and one Tweet sums it up:
Quote:
In Emmerson Mnangagwa you are going to get a man leading Zimbabwe who is as horrendous as Robert Mugabe if not worse
Link to programme:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09fj3xh
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Last edited by davidbfpo; 3 Hours Ago at 08:10 AM. Reason: 836v
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