Is It Time to Get Out of Afghanistan?

[Ray]

Not really much easier, just less stressful.. The flip side is time and effort lost moving from operating area to 'sanctuary' plus the increased logistic burden and the potential for attack while moving to and fro-- and one must always wonder how long the opponent will allow it to remain a sanctuary.A large number of things that may seem self evident at first glance are not -- once some thought is given them...They aren't that important and generally are easily replaceable. Plus, if such a sanctuary exists, the nominal leaders tend to operate almost exclusively from that safe haven -- which creates trigger puller morale problems. Then there's the problem of the lad who gets to that safe haven after a few fights and elects not to return to the arena...

It's a set of trade offs. Like everything else.

Anyone who has done a long trek in the mountains with heavy battle load and gone through a few skirmishes will understand what a 'break' (forget about sanctuaries) mean.

One does not go back to base (sanctuaries) after every action. Therefore, the issue of logistics is redundant. One does a tenure and hangs around in local sanctuaries for the next actions, having been replenished. That is how the terrorist operate in Kashmir. Therefore, the danger of moving from a base and carrying out an operation and then returning to safe sanctuaries across the border is imaginary.

The terrorists operating in Kashmir are on a one year tenure and they are paid a King's ransom for the same. They are logistically topped up from across the border at their local sanctuaries and so can carry on with their activities. I daresay the Taliban, who are of the same genre, are any different in their modus operandi.

It would be unbelievable that anyone, be they terrorists or otherwise, do not require to rest, refit and reorganise. Obviously, it cannot be done in 'enemy' territory. Therefore, after a longish stint, they have to touch base at their sanctuaries which cannot be 'touched' without raising international concern of violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty.

For the Taliban, the KP area is ideal.

That is why the US Drones operate there and Pakistan complain of violation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Drones cannot target all areas and that is obvious.

[JMA]

The terrorists operating in Kashmir are on a one year tenure and they are paid a King's ransom for the same. They are logistically topped up from across the border at their local sanctuaries and so can carry on with their activities. I daresay the Taliban, who are of the same genre, are any different in their modus operandi.

This payment business tends to depreciate the claim of their being patriots fighting for freedom and other good things. These hired guns are more mercenaries and less insurgents and should be treated as such.

Their sanctuaries have got to be targets of that there is no doubt. The problem with the drone activities is that it is a slow drip of humiliation for Pakistan at their having to explain why the US are free to attack targets in their country and why they have so little control over large areas of their country. The problem is that these clowns have got the Bomb.

The Afghans are not worth fighting for, but maybe the location of Afghanistan has certain strategic considerations. Get out ASAP and the lesson learned should be how punishing the Taliban (for providing sanctuary to AQ) grew into this Nation Building crap at a cost of too many lives and a lot of cash. The other lesson is that the armies that rolled Saddam's forces up with ease in Operation Iraqi Freedom had little or no idea how to fight an insurgency. Some hard lessons where learned along the road from then until today.

[Ray]

This payment business tends to depreciate the claim of their being patriots fighting for freedom and other good things. These hired guns are more mercenaries and less insurgents and should be treated as such.

When I was there, the radio transcripts indicated that the tenure was for one year and the bounty was Rs 2,00,000. That may not appear much in $, but it is a King's Ransom in these parts.

Also, chaps on death row, were given the option of clemency if they volunteered for a tenure as a terrorist in Kashmir.

Some were dedicated to the Islamic cause but most of them were mere mercenaries.

Interestingly, the Tanzeem (Group) Leader would, at times, pocket a part of the money given for refurbishing the Tanzeem and for other necessities or the payment for the dead and there was a lot of grouse over that.

Their sanctuaries have got to be targets of that there is no doubt. The problem with the drone activities is that it is a slow drip of humiliation for Pakistan at their having to explain why the US are free to attack targets in their country and why they have so little control over large areas of their country. The problem is that these clowns have got the Bomb.

It is true the Drone attacks have their value from the standpoint you have mentioned.

It is true that Pakistan has the Bomb, but it will be the day they use it on the US. They may appear a trifle silly, but then they are not totally stupid is what I would say.

As it is the US special forces are undertaking raid into KP.

The Afghans are not worth fighting for, but maybe the location of Afghanistan has certain strategic considerations. Get out ASAP and the lesson learned should be how punishing the Taliban (for providing sanctuary to AQ) grew into this Nation Building crap at a cost of too many lives and a lot of cash. The other lesson is that the armies that rolled Saddam's forces up with ease in Operation Iraqi Freedom had little or no idea how to fight an insurgency. Some hard lessons where learned along the road from then until today.

It is not the Afghans that is in the consideration.

It is the location which is important from the US' geostrategic standpoint. It sits close to the underbelly of Russia and prevents Russian influence into Afghanistan and thence into Iran, with which Russia is quite chummy. Likewise, it also allows a peek into China and the Uyghurs.

That apart, it also overlook the South Asian hotbed.

I seriously think that all the brouhaha over spreading "Freedom and Democracy" (which in any case is a bogus reason) is any reason to unleash a war. It is mere smokescreen for the strategic intent, which I think, was valid given the Cold War realities and compulsions and so the foray into Afghanistan. It is another matter that the US has found itself stuck.

From the results observed in the open forum, it does appear that the US is not well versed in COIN. It requires patience and less of gung ho stuff (product of SLA Marshall's theories). No one likes a foreigner bossing around who expects all to cringe and crawl and be eternally grateful. On the other hand compare the British imperialism in India, where a handful could keep a huge mass under control. But then one is not here to recount history and the rationale.

Take the case of Bush. Gung ho and no Osama!

Take the case of Obama. Bumbling around as it appeared, weak and all that, but patiently went through the steps. Result = Osama killed.

Patience.

Speak softly but carry a Big Stick as the US President Roosevelt had said.

If one looks at the Indian experience, one can see there is hardly any insurgency in the NE of India, which was once an hotbed. Currently, the separatism in Kashmir is in disarray. The terrorists killed one of the leader who was advocating dialogue and that has cause disharmony amongst their ranks.

One of the reasons why the Pakistani sponsored terrorists in Kashmir or the Chinese sponsored ones in the NE has not been able to make headway is that their areas of operations have been sanitised, by having troops on the border (hence a much less of them can ingress) and those who ingress are taken on by the second line of mobile elements on search and destroy.

Patience is required and there is no instant quick fixes.