Iraq: Out of the desert into Mosul (closed)

[JWing]

Here's my latest interview "Analysis Of Ayatollah Sistani’s Fatwa To Defend Iraq Interview With Tel Aviv Univ’s Rachel Kantz Feder". I talked with Tel Aviv Univ's Rachel Feder about Ayatollah Sistani's Fatwa calling on Iraqis to defend the country's shrines and states which was immediately seen both within and without Iraq as a sectarian move to mobilize the country's Shiites against militant Sunnis.

[JWing]

Outlaw

Since the fighting started insurgents have been able to kill a generals before. June 22 a police general was assassinated in Baghdad. Also June 11 a general from the 4th Division was killed in combat in Awja, Salahaddin.

As for the fighting the Iraqis are hindered by a number of factors.

1) Most commanders are political appointees who have proven to be incompetent

2) The ISF were flooded with volunteers after Ayatollah Sistani issued a fatwa calling on Iraqis to defend the country. From reports these guys are getting anywhere from 3-7 days of training and then sent to the front. Some are just doing guard duty but others have been put into combat. These guys are obviously going to be a hindrance to combat effectiveness but strain an already bad supply system.

3) Iraqis can't shoot whether its regular ISF or the militias. I can't tell you how many videos I've seen of hip firing, putting guns around corners without looking or over a wall and blasting away a whole clip. I call this "going rambo". Again this is not only ineffective but wastes huge amounts of ammo on a poor logistics system.

4) The ISF can't hold any ground they take. ISF continues to go thorugh an area, clear it, and then leave allowing insurgents to move right back in. Ishaqi in Salahaddin for example has been cleared 2 times since fighting started. Yesterday there was fighting in Khalidiya, Anbar 2 days after the ISF claimed it had cleared it.

5) Disintegration. One report claims that up to half of the army's divisions are combat ineffective because of the loss of personnel & equipment from those first few days of fighting when the ISF collapsed across northern Iraq. Who knows how long that will take to rebuild all that.

6) Most importantly Baghdad has shown no strategy for who to counter the insurgents. Right now they're just trying to hold ground and kill their way out of the situation and doing a very poor job at that.

Overall I think the only way the government is going to be able to turn this situation around not only militarily but politically is if Baghdad finds Sunnis on the ground in local communities that it can ally with, and provide them with military and political support to fight insurgents otherwise the Sunnis areas will never be held and the larger complaints about Baghdad's discrimination against their community will never be overcome. That's not going to happen with Maliki and may not even happen if he's replaced. That's a major reason why I see this fighting going on for years.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw

Since the fighting started insurgents have been able to kill a generals before. June 22 a police general was assassinated in Baghdad. Also June 11 a general from the 4th Division was killed in combat in Awja, Salahaddin.

As for the fighting the Iraqis are hindered by a number of factors.

1) Most commanders are political appointees who have proven to be incompetent

2) The ISF were flooded with volunteers after Ayatollah Sistani issued a fatwa calling on Iraqis to defend the country. From reports these guys are getting anywhere from 3-7 days of training and then sent to the front. Some are just doing guard duty but others have been put into combat. These guys are obviously going to be a hindrance to combat effectiveness but strain an already bad supply system.

3) Iraqis can't shoot whether its regular ISF or the militias. I can't tell you how many videos I've seen of hip firing, putting guns around corners without looking or over a wall and blasting away a whole clip. I call this "going rambo". Again this is not only ineffective but wastes huge amounts of ammo on a poor logistics system.

4) The ISF can't hold any ground they take. ISF continues to go thorugh an area, clear it, and then leave allowing insurgents to move right back in. Ishaqi in Salahaddin for example has been cleared 2 times since fighting started. Yesterday there was fighting in Khalidiya, Anbar 2 days after the ISF claimed it had cleared it.

5) Disintegration. One report claims that up to half of the army's divisions are combat ineffective because of the loss of personnel & equipment from those first few days of fighting when the ISF collapsed across northern Iraq. Who knows how long that will take to rebuild all that.

6) Most importantly Baghdad has shown no strategy for who to counter the insurgents. Right now they're just trying to hold ground and kill their way out of the situation and doing a very poor job at that.

Overall I think the only way the government is going to be able to turn this situation around not only militarily but politically is if Baghdad finds Sunnis on the ground in local communities that it can ally with, and provide them with military and political support to fight insurgents otherwise the Sunnis areas will never be held and the larger complaints about Baghdad's discrimination against their community will never be overcome. That's not going to happen with Maliki and may not even happen if he's replaced. That's a major reason why I see this fighting going on for years.

JWing---it appears that the fighting has moved closer to actual Baghdad and now even in the south ie Basra area via car bombs and bombs in general---the Iraqi's are good at/for rumors--there is one going around that IS has in fact teams already inside Baghdad waiting for the go signal to launch strikes all over the city---anything on your info side to confirm or deny?

Think that yes the fighting will go on for years but politically the Sunni's as well as the Kurds are making moves rather rapidly towards separate states in the anticipation that Malaki is not going to cave and step down.

Which if one looks at the meetings today in Baghdad is where this is heading---Malaki lets everyone negotiate and when they are finished, tired, and have not reached any agreement he simply steps in and continues.

So I do not see him leaving anytime soon so the threat issued by al Humdan will occur.

[OUTLAW 09]

Seems the KSA has an interesting way to get Saudi foreign fighters back home from Syria.

Dozens of Saudis fighting in Syria have voluntarily surrendered to security authorities, said Sami Al-Saleh, Saudi ambassador to Jordan.
The statement comes in the wake of the recent surrender of 28-year-old Khalaf Al-Enezi, who approached the Saudi Embassy in Amman after fighting in Syria for over 18 months.
“Al-Enezi is not the first nor the last person to surrender at the Jordanian border,” said Saleh. “He is one of dozens of Saudi young men who were misled.”
The Interior Ministry previously said that the Royal Court had approved a 15-day grace period for former fighters to come forward and return to the Kingdom.
“Many young Saudis benefited from the grace period granted by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah in March,” he said. “Since that time, we have had individual cases of surrender."

[OUTLAW 09]

While we watch the activities of the IS in Iraq do not forget their activities in Syria--this is interesting oil article as it ties into a NYT article on the IS Syrian/Iraqi strategic strategy.

Currently the IS through the declaration of the Caliphate has created effectively a new Sunni State complete with oil reserves and revenue streams so the argument that the Sunni's in Iraq can not sustain themselves is actually false from the IS perspective---they are in fact right now in this time and space a viable state.

Then if you take the statement by al Hamdun that the Sunni's are ready to declared themselves independent of Baghdad if Malaki does not increase the number of Kurds and Sunni's in the government and allow a Sunni federated region.

http://www.arabnews.com/news/596796

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ers.html?&_r=0

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-979714.html

[Dayuhan]

complete with oil reserves and revenue streams

What's the actual extent and condition of those oil reserves and revenue streams?

Syrian oil production was unexceptional at its peak and has declined enormously. The production infrastructure has deteriorated. Turning oil into money is not all that simple: does ISIS have the money or the expertise to get even the limited reserves they may control onto the market? To bring in foreign expertise you have to be able to pay for it or convince investors that you are stable enough to let them take their cut from downstream earnings... can ISIS do either?

[OUTLAW 09]

What's the actual extent and condition of those oil reserves and revenue streams?

Syrian oil production was unexceptional at its peak and has declined enormously. The production infrastructure has deteriorated. Turning oil into money is not all that simple: does ISIS have the money or the expertise to get even the limited reserves they may control onto the market? To bring in foreign expertise you have to be able to pay for it or convince investors that you are stable enough to let them take their cut from downstream earnings... can ISIS do either?

Dayuhan---following your logic then we do not need to understand that IS is sitting on a 2B USD war chest, they have effectively unified both the Syrian and Iraqi Sunni's and control all the production oil and gas fields in Syria/there have been oil deposits located in Iraq Sunni areas and are to a degree in partial control of the largest refinery in Iraq.

And if you read through the NYT article of the IS strategy-- they control a large amount of the water infrastructure in both countries and who controls water controls the farming economies of both countries.

Then on top of all that they are effectively blocking a 300K man ISF and another 50K Shia militia/Quds from retaking territory they control.

So why are you worried about how high the oil revenues are? There is a lot of other things that are more important.

[JWing]

What's the actual extent and condition of those oil reserves and revenue streams?

Syrian oil production was unexceptional at its peak and has declined enormously. The production infrastructure has deteriorated. Turning oil into money is not all that simple: does ISIS have the money or the expertise to get even the limited reserves they may control onto the market? To bring in foreign expertise you have to be able to pay for it or convince investors that you are stable enough to let them take their cut from downstream earnings... can ISIS do either?

Dayuhan

IS is trucking out the oil from Syria and selling it to Turkish and other companies. Ironically the Assad govt is buying some of this oil as well. It now has control of several oil fields and infrastructure in Iraq as well where it has been smuggling oil for years as well. As for running the infrastructure they're not going to do that themselves but rely upon the workers already there. When it took over most of the Baiji refinery for a short period in Salahaddin for example it told all the workers to stay on cite and continue with their work. They have the money to pay them as well.

[OUTLAW 09]

Here's my latest interview "Analysis Of Ayatollah Sistani’s Fatwa To Defend Iraq Interview With Tel Aviv Univ’s Rachel Kantz Feder". I talked with Tel Aviv Univ's Rachel Feder about Ayatollah Sistani's Fatwa calling on Iraqis to defend the country's shrines and states which was immediately seen both within and without Iraq as a sectarian move to mobilize the country's Shiites against militant Sunnis.

JWing---

1. this is a link to the German Der Spiegel German interview with the Sunni Sheikh al Hamdun (one of the major Sunni protest movement leaders and close ties to the IAI/al Duri) where he outright tells the current Iraqi government ---- a larger proportion of Kurds and Sunni's in the government and an three federation state under one flag with Baghdad as the capital ----if not the Sunni's will create their own government and state---a de facto split up of Iraq.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-979714.html

2. Appears the Voice of Russia article on the killing of the ISF General was a tad off---seems that he was killed by a sniper instead of a mortar attack which indicates to me that the fighting in the area of the General was going the way of the IS.