More Piracy Near Somalia

[Dayuhan]

It is a task for the marines (US or Brit).

* take out the pirates and their ships.
* liberate the hostages (with as few casualties as possible)
* recover the pirated ships.
* destroy anything and everything that appears to be have been procured through the proceeds of piracy.

I would go along with that, except that the last stage might be better held until the rest are accomplished. I'd also prefer to see some action taken against financiers, ransom collectors, and other industry beneficiaries that may not be located in the pirate-dominated areas. That would be intel-dependent of course.

That would be a large and complex operation, of course, given the number of ships involved. I wouldn't want to comment on the nature of the complications or the possible ways of overcoming them, as there are many here who know far more about such things.

It struck me as an off thought that if something like that were being planned, it might be worth an effort to significantly raise patrol levels (trying to reduce the number of new ships taken) and accelerate some of the ransom payments. Not that paying ransom is ever a good idea, but anything that would reduce the total number of targets would make a simultaneous recovery less complex. Again, I'd defer to those who know more... not that I expect anything of the sort to happen any time soon!

Again, I have to think this will go on until the pirates see that the cost and risk of piracy exceed the reward. That means imposing coasts and risks.

[JMA]

I would go along with that, except that the last stage might be better held until the rest are accomplished. I'd also prefer to see some action taken against financiers, ransom collectors, and other industry beneficiaries that may not be located in the pirate-dominated areas. That would be intel-dependent of course.

I suggest the commander will be given priorities and subject to a few factors on the ground would probably attempt to "secure" the hostages first (accepting that this will be more difficult if the hostages are dispersed at the first whiff of an operation). Give the commander the mission with any limitations then let him (and his staff) get on with the planning and the operation themselves (without interference).

As to tracking down and getting hold of the various "Mr Bigs" sitting in safe places - yes a separate exercise. A parallel exercise by the CIA or Interpol but not a task for the marines other than their feeding in the intel they may pick up on the ground.

That would be a large and complex operation, of course, given the number of ships involved. I wouldn't want to comment on the nature of the complications or the possible ways of overcoming them, as there are many here who know far more about such things.

Maybe not. Let the marines figure it out. Smart guys may well find a smart way of executing the mission.

It struck me as an off thought that if something like that were being planned, it might be worth an effort to significantly raise patrol levels (trying to reduce the number of new ships taken) and accelerate some of the ransom payments. Not that paying ransom is ever a good idea, but anything that would reduce the total number of targets would make a simultaneous recovery less complex. Again, I'd defer to those who know more... not that I expect anything of the sort to happen any time soon!

Yea, leave it to the marines.

Again, I have to think this will go on until the pirates see that the cost and risk of piracy exceed the reward. That means imposing coasts and risks.

And what would that the cost and risk tipping points be?

[Dayuhan]

And what would that the cost and risk tipping points be?

We don't know. We add risk and cost to their equation until they stop, then we know. Of course as long as they hold hostages it's hard to do that, which brings us full circle.

I'd like to see a mass raid aimed at recovering all ships and hostages now held... but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it.

[JMA]

We don't know. We add risk and cost to their equation until they stop, then we know. Of course as long as they hold hostages it's hard to do that, which brings us full circle.

I'd like to see a mass raid aimed at recovering all ships and hostages now held... but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it.

Look I'd have to do my homework on Somalia (to see where it differs from the Africa I know) but I suggest that they are pretty "old testament" in their approach to life. Let that be the point of departure.

Neither the US nor any European (as in geography) country will apply the death sentence on the pirates. So one needs to look for a proxy state (that will) to agree to try any captured pirates. Yes, it may require the incentive of an aid grant/bribe/call it what you like to get it off the ground.

So as not to place the current hostages under further risk this (kangaroo) legal process should come into effect after the current hostages are released/freed and automatically applied to any piracy actions after the operation we speak of.

I recently saw a documentary on the deployment of a Brit naval vessel on anti-piracy duties off Somalia. They came across this skiff way out to sea which had run out of petrol and on approach found neither weapons not fishing gear on board. They took the two Somalis on board fed them, clothed them and gave them a medical check up and delivered them to a point in sight of the coast where they were released in their skiff with enough petrol/water/food to make it home safely. Contrary to those with negative colonial memories the Brits are really jolly nice chaps. Little wonder the pirates are laughing all the way to the bank on this one.

Yes, sadly it is not going to happen.

But I would like the US marines to do the planning and via the Pentagon get it presented to the President as another electioneering stunt with great potential. He might even buy it.

[carl]

Here is an interesting story I found over at Information Dissemination. They seem to have a lot of those.

http://www.livemint.com/2011/07/0820...recks.html?h=B

It is about the life of the seaman kidnapped by pirates from the area that used to be the country of Somalia. About what you would expect from criminal teenagers. They torture, starve, beat and sometimes kill the seaman. That is what criminals do to people they control. Good clean fun you see.

[davidbfpo]

Current head of the Royal Marines and Operation Commander of EUNAVFOR, Buster Howes discussed current piracy trends and how EUNAVFOR is seeking to counter the ongoing threat. While the drivers for piracy remain on land, the force has been tasked with limiting the effects of piracy on international commerce in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

With a podcast just over an hour long, about to listen to so no review yet:http://www.iiss.org/events-calendar/...ons-effective/