Syria: a civil war (closed)

[davidbfpo]

Syria cannot be compared to South Africa, as JMA suggested; there is very little external investment in the economy and whilst some might have informal sanctions as party to 'evil' that is nothing like the informal, formal and legal sanctions on South Africa.

There is a parallel in the lack of legitimacy, the use of a state of emergency (for fifty years in Syria) and I suspect an internal debate between repression and reform. What I found in South Africa amidst the police and securocrats before the Rubicon speech, way back in 1985, was a realisation that reform had to come and repression was only a temporary option.

Somehow I doubt if Assad realises he has lost.

[JMA]

Syria cannot be compared to South Africa, as JMA suggested; there is very little external investment in the economy and whilst some might have informal sanctions as party to 'evil' that is nothing like the informal, formal and legal sanctions on South Africa.

There is a parallel in the lack of legitimacy, the use of a state of emergency (for fifty years in Syria) and I suspect an internal debate between repression and reform. What I found in South Africa amidst the police and securocrats before the Rubicon speech, way back in 1985, was a realisation that reform had to come and repression was only a temporary option.

Somehow I doubt if Assad realises he has lost.

"Crossing the Rubicon" as in passing a point of no return. A head of state clearly reading the internal and external mood badly wrong and thereby hastening and indeed ensuring the end of the regime. Lets sit back and see what happens now.

[tequila]

I think perhaps the best analogy with South Africa is that both Botha and Assad presided over regimes whose base support was in a minority which dominated the military and security services and which was terrified of the consequences of releasing control. In Syria's case, unfortunately, there is no Mandela figure who exercises overarching moral control over a semi-unified opposition. Instead there is an inchoate and disparate opposition and thus no guarantee for the Alawites that they will not be purged from the country if the Assad regime falls.

[Tukhachevskii]

Somehow I doubt if Assad realises he has lost.

Really? Not long ago people were saying the same thing about Ghaddafi. Syria isn't the same. What we "know" about what's going on in Syria is patchy and I think it's a little too early to be speculating about the fall of Assad Jr. Besides, he has the "backing" of Turkey and Lebanon (and Russia) both of which cannot afford a destabilsied Syria (not to mention Jordan). Whatever Assad does will be partly tempered by what happens to Ghaddfi; who's showing everyone what he's made of and thrown a spanner in the works in the process. In fact I think Libya will set an example to other states that the "Egyptian" or "Tunisian" models aren't exportable.

On a different note, I wonder how the Obama admuinistration feels about what, to my eyes at least, loks like the Bush doctrine (of spreading democracy) coming to fruition (albeit not in a manner Bush Jr. envisaged)?

[JMA]

Really? Not long ago people were saying the same thing about Ghaddafi. Syria isn't the same. What we "know" about what's going on in Syria is patchy and I think it's a little too early to be speculating about the fall of Assad Jr. Besides, he has the "backing" of Turkey and Lebanon (and Russia) both of which cannot afford a destabilsied Syria (not to mention Jordan). Whatever Assad does will be partly tempered by what happens to Ghaddfi; who's showing everyone what he's made of and thrown a spanner in the works in the process. In fact I think Libya will set an example to other states that the "Egyptian" or "Tunisian" models aren't exportable.

On a different note, I wonder how the Obama admuinistration feels about what, to my eyes at least, loks like the Bush doctrine (of spreading democracy) coming to fruition (albeit not in a manner Bush Jr. envisaged)?

Surely you don't need a Harold MacMillan to educate you that there is a Wind of Change blowing through the Arab world?

It may not take week, it may not take a month, or even a year or two but that wind is sure to blow through Syria as well. And the West should keep the fires burning there that the Wind of Change will fan.

[jmm99]

Just a question ?

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

Just a question ?

Regards

Mike

Good thinking, yes seems a lot like the "Springtime of the Peoples" in Europe in 1848.

... puts Europe about 150 years ahead on the curve... which is also probably correct.

[Tukhachevskii]

Good thinking, yes seems a lot like the "Springtime of the Peoples" in Europe in 1848.

... puts Europe about 150 years ahead on the curve... which is also probably correct.

Why not include the peasant revolts of the middle ages? Or 1789? or 1968? Or even the Arab Revolt and the Young Turks (is this a punctuated equilibrium situation or the continuation of a century old process of Arab Nationalism that began with the Arab "revolts" against the European powers and the Ottomans...in which case you could go back farther)? Are they, in fact, comparable phenomena either ontologically or causatively? I can't say, but apparently you have all the answers. I have a problem with universalising comparisons which imply an almost "whiggish" conception of the march of progress/reason/liberty. Sociologist Charles Tilly's classic but oft ignored book Big Structures, Large Processes, Huge Comparisons covers a lot of these concerns better than I could ever articulate them. He also has an excellent criticism of theories of revolution based upon J-Curve hypotheses.

[davidbfpo]

A true expert on the country, Patrick Seale has a short comment on FP and sub-titled:

Forget Libya. Washington should pay closer attention to the violent protests imperiling the Assad regime in Damascus. If there's one country where unrest could truly set the Middle East alight, it's Syria.

Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...yrian_timebomb

[JMA]

Why not include the peasant revolts of the middle ages? Or 1789? or 1968? Or even the Arab Revolt and the Young Turks (is this a punctuated equilibrium situation or the continuation of a century old process of Arab Nationalism that began with the Arab "revolts" against the European powers and the Ottomans...in which case you could go back farther)? Are they, in fact, comparable phenomena either ontologically or causatively? I can't say, but apparently you have all the answers. I have a problem with universalising comparisons which imply an almost "whiggish" conception of the march of progress/reason/liberty. Sociologist Charles Tilly's classic but oft ignored book Big Structures, Large Processes, Huge Comparisons covers a lot of these concerns better than I could ever articulate them. He also has an excellent criticism of theories of revolution based upon J-Curve hypotheses.

What touched a nerve here? Maybe that the Arabs are 150 years behind Europe on the political development, human freedom, etc etc curve? Relax... that is about to change.