North Korea: 2012-2016

[Kevin23]

According to an article by the Telegraph, The reclusive leader of the DPRK is coming close to death and that Kim is increasingly becoming detached from daily governance in the North. Also due to this, actions by the North Korean government and speculation from outside the DPRK has lead many to believe that a successor to Kim will be announced sometime in September.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-to-death.html

[CloseDanger]

What I saw in the sinking was a rogue Military General making a cry for help to the US for assistance in a coup (or at least acknowledgement that we knew that they wanted to take control of the government)
I pair it with MAO and Fidel original wanting a democracy and America being tone deaf.

Remember the lack of bravado before and after the sinking. Kim would have made this HIS personal victory. The order would have to come from Kim, yet he was involved with trains to china and appearances as well. Kim is a very "controlling guy".

Shortly after the sinking of the SKOR vessel, a very high ranking general was fired and a purge shortly followed. The regime is very weakened.
China has been bribing guards all along the border and yes, sending in modern technology so the people see what is going on in the rest of the world. The GULAG is about to end there.

Markets are to become legal again as such dire consequence the state their economy finds.

It has never been this bad in NORK. It has already collapsed IMHO.
The troops are getting edgy and the rice and grain sheds have been emptied to the population.
Last step is lash out.

[JMA]

What I saw in the sinking was a rogue Military General making a cry for help to the US for assistance in a coup (or at least acknowledgement that we knew that they wanted to take control of the government)
I pair it with MAO and Fidel original wanting a democracy and America being tone deaf.

Remember the lack of bravado before and after the sinking. Kim would have made this HIS personal victory. The order would have to come from Kim, yet he was involved with trains to china and appearances as well. Kim is a very "controlling guy".

Shortly after the sinking of the SKOR vessel, a very high ranking general was fired and a purge shortly followed. The regime is very weakened.
China has been bribing guards all along the border and yes, sending in modern technology so the people see what is going on in the rest of the world. The GULAG is about to end there.

Markets are to become legal again as such dire consequence the state their economy finds.

It has never been this bad in NORK. It has already collapsed IMHO.
The troops are getting edgy and the rice and grain sheds have been emptied to the population.
Last step is lash out.

Interesting take on the situation there.

Can't see China letting things get out of their control there though. The last thing they want is a legitimate reason for the US Navy to hang out in the Yellow sea and the East China Sea as this would be too close for comfort.

[Cliff]

Can't see China letting things get out of their control there though. The last thing they want is a legitimate reason for the US Navy to hang out in the Yellow sea and the East China Sea as this would be too close for comfort.

Even more importantly, China doesn't want to have to deal with the flood of refugees and cost of dealing with a truly failed PDRK. Not to mention the fact that they would lose the use of the PDRK as a distraction to the US and ROK... think of all the money and military power that would be rolled right up to the PRC border if the Koreas were to re-unite...

In truth I don't think the ROK really wants to deal with a failed PDRK either, they're doing too good economically and the track record (reference E/W Germany) isn't the best...

-Cliff

[CloseDanger]

After the sinking, kim took another slow train ride to Beijing. THEN he cleaned the ranks.

[JMA]

Even more importantly, China doesn't want to have to deal with the flood of refugees and cost of dealing with a truly failed PDRK. Not to mention the fact that they would lose the use of the PDRK as a distraction to the US and ROK... think of all the money and military power that would be rolled right up to the PRC border if the Koreas were to re-unite...

In truth I don't think the ROK really wants to deal with a failed PDRK either, they're doing too good economically and the track record (reference E/W Germany) isn't the best...

-Cliff

If one follows the news it appears that the location of the naval exercise seems to be drifting eastwards (in other words away from the Chinese coast). Lets see to what extent the US will fold to the demands of the Chinese.

[JMA]

If one follows the news it appears that the location of the naval exercise seems to be drifting eastwards (in other words away from the Chinese coast). Lets see to what extent the US will fold to the demands of the Chinese.

Predictably after Uncle Hong insisted that his principal debtor not play war games in the Yellow Sea the naval exercise was moved to the Sea of Japan and away from the Chinese coast.

US-South Korea naval exercise completed amid Pyongyang tension

So who was it who said the US would ignore China on this matter?

[Dayuhan]

Predictably after Uncle Hong insisted that his principal debtor not play war games in the Yellow Sea the naval exercise was moved to the Sea of Japan and away from the Chinese coast.

The US and South Korea need Chinese (and Russian) help to manage North Korea. There will be the occasional quid pro quo, naturally. Why would you go out of your way to needlessly provoke somebody whose cooperation you want? What would be gained by it?

[JMA]

The US and South Korea need Chinese (and Russian) help to manage North Korea. There will be the occasional quid pro quo, naturally. Why would you go out of your way to needlessly provoke somebody whose cooperation you want? What would be gained by it?

Was there a quid pro quo with China on this issue? Don't think so... it was more that China told the US to take their naval exercise to the other side of the peninsula and the response was sir, yes, sir!

[Dayuhan]

Was there a quid pro quo with China on this issue? Don't think so... it was more that China told the US to take their naval exercise to the other side of the peninsula and the response was sir, yes, sir!

See it as you will... since neither of us knows what happened or what the deal was, our conclusions will simply reflect our preconceived assumptions. How do you know that the exercise wasn't proposed in the first place as a bargaining chip to be negotiated away?

The Chinese are neither allies not enemies; they look after their interests; we look after ours. They don't control us; we don't control them. There's a good deal of jockeying and a bit of push and shove now and then, as there always is among nations. Sometimes you give up ground you don't need, as you do in any bit of wrestling. Sometimes you're trying to gain something by it. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't. This isn't defeat or surrender, it's simply international relations in a multipolar world, something we'd all better get used to, as it's what we live in.

[JMA]

See it as you will... since neither of us knows what happened or what the deal was, our conclusions will simply reflect our preconceived assumptions. How do you know that the exercise wasn't proposed in the first place as a bargaining chip to be negotiated away?

The Chinese are neither allies not enemies; they look after their interests; we look after ours. They don't control us; we don't control them. There's a good deal of jockeying and a bit of push and shove now and then, as there always is among nations. Sometimes you give up ground you don't need, as you do in any bit of wrestling. Sometimes you're trying to gain something by it. Sometimes that works, sometimes it doesn't. This isn't defeat or surrender, it's simply international relations in a multipolar world, something we'd all better get used to, as it's what we live in.

It was straightforward foreign policy incompetence. Why did the US need to announce the exercise in the Yellow Sea when they knew they would move it to the eastern side of the peninsula if the Chinese so demanded?

Does the US want to look weak in the face of the world?

Now the US/ROK promise that there will be naval exercises in the Yellow Sea in September. Lets see if Uncle Hong will throw them a bone and allow them this consolation prize.

You can be assured that 99% of the world has read this as a US climb down. See that as you will...

[Dayuhan]

You can be assured that less than .1% of the world noticed or cared, and since neither of us knows the full story of what happened or why, a conclusion of incompetence seems premature... though of course if you're predisposed to reach such conclusions, you will.

Of course one might want to stick with the point of the exercises, and of the thread, and try to assess the impact on North Korea. Probably the impact is minimal, but that's to be expected. It's not an environment in which anything we do is likely to produce rapid change, or in which we want to produce rapid change.

[Rex Brynen]

Given that China has far more influence over NK than does the US, and given that securing Chinese cooperation is therefore rather important, wouldn't it be the height of stupidity to gratuitously annoy the Chinese in their own backyard?

[JMA]

Given that China has far more influence over NK than does the US, and given that securing Chinese cooperation is therefore rather important, wouldn't it be the height of stupidity to gratuitously annoy the Chinese in their own backyard?

Exactly. So who were the clowns that planned, announced and authorised the the naval exercises to take place in the Yellow sea which led to a humiliating climb down by the US?

[JMA]

You can be assured that less than .1% of the world noticed or cared, and since neither of us knows the full story of what happened or why, a conclusion of incompetence seems premature... though of course if you're predisposed to reach such conclusions, you will.

Of course one might want to stick with the point of the exercises, and of the thread, and try to assess the impact on North Korea. Probably the impact is minimal, but that's to be expected. It's not an environment in which anything we do is likely to produce rapid change, or in which we want to produce rapid change.

I can guarantee you that 100% of national leaderships across the world noticed and took the point. That matters.

[Rex Brynen]

Exactly. So who were the clowns that planned, announced and authorised the the naval exercises to take place in the Yellow sea which led to a humiliating climb down by the US?

Doing something more sensible than your initial plan is neither a "humiliating climb down," nor is it typically perceived as such by the international community (present company excepted).

[Ken White]

I can guarantee you that 100% of national leaderships across the world noticed and took the point. That matters.

a guarantee. That too matters. Even if you were anywhere near correct, most of them are smart enough not to make a standing broad jump at what could very likely be an erroneous conclusion...

Adding to the wise words from Rex Brynen, he's totally correct -- but then, no one in this case knows what the original plan really was. All most of us know is what was publicly announced. That often, even for the US, is not what's really intended. Does suck in the unthinking quite often...

Neat thing about being old is that I've seen dozens if not hundreds of would be prognosticators and pundidiots state categorically what the US did or did not do -- and they've most always been proven wrong. I've also read about the decline and fall of the US so many times that now I just smile. As Humphrey Bogart said, "Here's laughing at you, Kid..."

[Bob's World]

I suspect that is we could get a cagy observer such as Ken a 2-week pass to inspect the North Korean military, snoop around their motor pools, walk their lines to look at artillery and tanks that have been sitting static for 60 years, etc that he would come down off the mountain and announce: "stand down, these guys are all rep and no action."

Perhaps not, but we need to get Ken that pass and find out...

[Dayuhan]

Doing something more sensible than your initial plan is neither a "humiliating climb down," nor is it typically perceived as such by the international community (present company excepted).

Very true. I had a crawl through the regional English language press just to see what's being said. Nobody seemed to sense a humiliating US retreat, though there's a good deal of comment on what's perceived as an unusually sensitive reaction from Beijing (similar exercises were held not long ago without much fuss). The general consensus is that Beijing's focus is on the domestic audience, which is a good deal more restive than most Westerners realize. Playing the nationalist card and trying to whip up anger at an outside power is of course a long-standing tactic for distracting attention from domestic issues.

I don't see any point in playing into this strategy by upping the ante and giving them something to rant about, and the move that was taken seems - and seems regionally perceived as - a fairly nonchalant shrugoff - it's about North Korea, not about China, and if it's going to be an issue we'll take it elsewhere, no big deal. Given the desire to maintain a focus on North Korea, there's nothing to be gained by creating issues with China, and it really doesn't warrant a hysterical response.

[JMA]

Doing something more sensible than your initial plan is neither a "humiliating climb down," nor is it typically perceived as such by the international community (present company excepted).

Not being involved in matters relating to the China Desk i must say that the first thought that crossed my mind when I heard that join US/ROK naval exercises were to be carried out in the Yellow Sea was "I wonder what China will have to say about that?"

The end result was that the naval exercise was moved right around the peninsula and away from the Chinese coastline. The climb down was predictable... but the question that should be asked was why was it necessary? Which "smart" guy or guys put the US in the position that it had to carryout a humiliating climb down?

Time to purge incompetent idiots in the White House/State Department/Pentagon? I believe so.