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Old 02-05-2016   #21
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Default Belgain CT

A rare, detailed article on counter-terrorism in Belguim before the latest attacks in Paris, a week after the Hebdo attack; the former were linked to a suburb of Brussels, Molenbeek:http://www.buzzfeed.com/joshuahersh/...ns#.pgNVQOLglm

The headline & sub-title:
Quote:
What They Missed: The Anti-Terror Raid That Asked All The Wrong Questions Ten months before the deadly attacks in Paris, a nighttime raid in a quiet corner of Belgium left an apartment destroyed, two suspected attackers dead, one man arrested — and a host of unanswered questions. BuzzFeed News’ Joshua Hersh investigates a shoot-out that showed Europe’s terrorism problem starts at home.
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Old 03-19-2016   #22
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Default The ISIS threat to the UK

Taken from CTC's Sentinel an article by Raffaello Pantucci; the Abstract says:
Quote:
While clearly at the top of the Islamic State’s targeting list, the United Kingdom so far has been spared from any major terrorist atrocities at home with direct links to the Islamic State. A review of the trials of those accused of terrorist plotting in the country between 2013 and 2015 reveals that the violent Islamist threat picture has instead been dominated by lone-actor plots, with some demonstrating connections of some sort to individuals on the battlefield in Syria or Iraq. Going forward, however, the threat is likely to become more acute as the Islamic State pivots toward international terror.
Link:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-i...-terror-trials
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Old 03-22-2016   #23
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For those SWJ readers who think that IS does not drive on an intelligence driven operations concept...their attack cells use a form of OPSEC tradecraft that resembles that of spy cell tradecraft......think again.....reference today's Brussels airport bombing....we saw this as far back as 2003 in Iraq and it has not changed since 2003.

Cells operating by the book if one gets neutralized the other one gets into action to divert attention from the first cell.....and what has come out of the Brussels major arrest....not a single use of any form of communications outside of face to face....defeats every time any form of major communications surveillance operations.

Defeating IS cells has always been about the heavy use of police and security services to defeat them using their own tactics...not through the use of high tech which we seem to think is the be all end all.
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Old 03-23-2016   #24
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Default The wider context

Two charts which illustrate the long history of terrorism and CT in Europe, which alas do not copy:http://qz.com/558597/charted-terror-...-1970s-to-now/
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Old 03-26-2016   #25
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Two more charts on deaths caused by terrorism 1970-2015 and people killed by terrorism 1970-2016 - the later includes those with an Islamist inspiration:http://www.datagraver.com/case/peopl...rope-1970-2015
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Old 03-28-2016   #26
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Default Inside Europe's Terror Attacks

BBC reporter, Peter Taylor and an assistant, have a hour long 'Panorama' documentary on:
Quote:
From highly organised cells like the one that killed 130 people in Paris, to lone attackers within our own communities, Panorama reveals how the so-called Islamic State's terror network has been operating secretly in Europe, and Western intelligence agencies' battle to stop it.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...terror-attacks

It aapeared on TV here 23rd March 2016, it clearly relies on a number of "leaks", notably from the French, supplemented by a number of interviews and especially of an ISIS suspect in French custody.
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Old 03-31-2016   #27
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Default Ex-MI6 man on: Terrorism, Europe and Brexit

Interesting contribution by Nigel Inkster, ex-SIS (MI6) and now with IISS:http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices...nd-brexit-c6ab

An interesting part:
Quote:
Last week I featured briefly in the BBC's Panorama programme, which depicted in remarkable detail how ISIS had planned and orchestrated the complex, multi-phase Paris and Brussels attacks. As is always the way, many of my comments ended up on the cutting-room floor. But during my interview to camera I tried to explain the difficulties intelligence and security services face in dealing with transnational terrorist plots. Intelligence does not come in a regular flow and when it does come it seldom admits of only one interpretation, nor does it always lead inexorably to the next piece in the puzzle. Items of intelligence that in retrospect seem crucially important do not always seem so when they first come to light. Working in counter-terrorism is to see the world always through a glass darkly. Panorama showed that Europe's intelligence and security services knew they were facing a major problem, knew many of the actors involved and were in a desperate race with the terrorists. They were able to avert some of the plots, but could not pre-empt them all. I know from personal experience what it feels like to lose that race. Successful counter-terrorism operations involve a degree of luck. To talk of 'joining the dots', as if the complexities and uncertainties of such work can be reduced to the predictable simplicity of a child's colouring book, is not helpful.
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Old 04-03-2016   #28
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Default Europe vs. America: Comparing the Terrorism Threat

A useful commentary by Daniel Byman:https://www.lawfareblog.com/europe-v...rrorism-threat
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Old 06-09-2016   #29
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Tom Rogan, an unknown writer to me, in National Review, with a rare article on CT in Germany:http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...sh-terror-cell

One "takeaway" cited in part:
Quote:
A sustaining theme of the Daesh plots in Europe has been their ambition of sparking public fury and a backlash against Muslims on the continent. Consider the Dusseldorf plotters’ strategy of deploying Syrian men via migrant routes to massacre families on a German street: Had the terrorists succeeded, they would have fueled already significant tensions in Europe over migration from the Middle East.
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Old 12-24-2016   #30
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Default Terrorism in Europe: a 'must read' and more

The free, online resource Perspectives on Terrorism has a new edition devoted to terrorism in Europe, with many articles and I will draw attention to only one. Needless to say written before the Berlin attack.

Link to latest issue:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot

Those who follow CT are probably familiar with the output of a very small Norwegian team, Thomas Hegghammer is one and his article is a 'must read': The Future of Jihadism in Europe: A Pessimistic View:http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/.../view/566/1122

His conclusion ends with:
Quote:
If the jihadi radicalization problem in Europe does indeed get worse, it may be worth considering radical new approaches, both of the soft and the hard kind. Perhaps Europe needs to spend significantly more to improve education in immigrant-heavy areas. Perhaps we must consider longer prison sentences for terrorism offences. I do not purport to know exactly what might work. However, continuing as we do today, with small, incremental policy adjustments, arguably has a predictable outcome. It is a Europe with much larger intelligence services, an entrenched Muslim economic underclass, and more anti-Muslim sentiment.
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Old 12-27-2016   #31
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Default Terrorism deaths in Europe since 1970



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Old 04-09-2017   #32
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Default From Eta to Stockholm: Is terror more of a threat to Europe than before?

A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
Quote:
the terror threat hanging over Europeans today is no greater than the one their parents faced.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371
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Old 04-10-2017   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
A short BBC News review, with this graphic:


Yes there is the potential for deaths, but the review ends with:
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39540371
True if the numbers tell the whole story, but the communists, Algerian freedom fighters, and Palestinian liberation groups conducted terrorism as a form of communication. They did not seek to wipe out Europeans, they sought to either reduce their support for Israel, liberate Algeria (or Ireland), or sway Europe's political leanings to the left. The character of the new threat is different in purpose, and they do seem constrained by their political ends like the other groups. The USSR would only let their proxy groups go so far, while others were self-constrained because it would be counter productive not to be.

ISIS, AQ, and others along these lines are unlikely to be self-constrained from killing as many Europeans as possible. Furthermore, they are not always in isolated cells directed by a higher centralized authority, the advent of self-radicalization makes the threat more unpredictable. Still the biggest today to Europe today seems to be over reacting, and a rapid and illogical shift to the far right politically.
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Old 04-21-2017   #34
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Default Intent, capability and lethality

Hat tip to WoTR for this article 'Lone actors -v- remote controlled jihadi terrorism rethinking the threat to the West' by Professor Mullins, an Australian and currently in Germany. The purpose is well explained in this sentence:
Quote:
It is therefore important to re-examine the concept of lone-actor terrorism and to try and appreciate where it fits within the overall spectrum of jihadist terrorist activity in the West.
Link:https://warontherocks.com/2017/04/lo...t-to-the-west/

This graphic is very useful, especially when the author points out that the numbers in brackets refer to number of fatalities vs number of attacks.


He ends with:
Quote:
The threat to the West is real and we cannot afford to let down our guard, but our adversaries’ intent is far greater than their capabilities. Moreover, this is an indicator of largely successful counter-terrorism. Members of the general public and policymakers alike should understand and appreciate this.
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Old 04-21-2017   #35
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Default Reforming Transatlantic Counter-Terrorism

A previously unheard of report by an unknown group, that was published online in October 2016; they are a Central European security group, headquartered @ Bratislava, Slovakia under the title Globsec Policy Institute.
Link to the 34 pg. report:http://www.cepolicy.org/publications...nter-terrorism

It is a broad brush review by "wise old heads", Michael Chertoff being the American aboard and in places quite revealing.

I am just not convinced the solutions are really fit for purpose, if only as the jihadist's focus so far is not on the smaller European nations; nor that what the USA has done structurally is acceptable.
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Old 07-20-2017   #36
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Default 46 years of terrorist attacks in Europe, visualized

A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:
Quote:
From 1970 to 2016: 5,215 people died from bombings. 2,463 from assassinations. 2,270 from assaults. 957 from hostage situations. 183 from hijackings. 88 from building attacks. Thousands wounded or missing.
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ism-in-europe/
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Old 07-20-2017   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
A WaPo article, with many graphics; as the sub-title says:
Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...ism-in-europe/
All in an effort to portray the spate from the 1990s-on as "normal"...
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