SMALL WARS COUNCIL
Go Back   Small Wars Council > Conflicts -- Current & Future > Other, By Region > Europe

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-09-2017   #21
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Russian terrorists in Donetsk parade their Strela-10 small-range SAMs.
Not a single person asks where the hell did they get them?
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017   #22
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

CEPA‏#@cepa
"#Russia deceives the West by disguising its movements effectively," write @dpjankowski & Col. Kowalik
https://goo.gl/JvP1bf
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017   #23
Azor
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 801
Default RE: Ukrainian Nationalism

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
...you actually mean the following...a country seeking it's own identity after Soviet suppression since 1918 right…then German suppression and then again Soviet suppression and then Russian oligarch theft of the entire State budget for one year...that "nationalism"??

…And eastern Ukraine...a GRU exported war led by a GRU COL who is alive and well in St. Petersburg after the deaths of most of the 14 that started that war and crossed with him from Crimea into eastern Ukraine...as well as a number of Ukrainian criminals who joined him in 2014...
Actually, Muscovite oppression of Ukrainians has been ongoing for more than three centuries. Despite all of the killings and deportations during the Civil War and then Stalin’s tyranny, the issue of ethnic and national identity east of the Dnieper River is a thorny one.

Alternatively named the Wild Fields, Sloboda Ukraine and Left Bank Ukraine, eastern Ukraine was a sparsely-settled no-man’s land for centuries after the first Mongol invasion of Europe in the 13th Century. Despite the Mongols’ eventual defeat, this region was still subject to Mongol and Tatar depredations and was on the route that the Crimean Tatars took when raiding north toward Moscow. Crimea was only finally conquered in the late 18th Century, and both Crimea and eastern Ukraine were settled by a blend of ethnic Russians as well as ethnic Ukrainians from Right Bank Ukraine, where Ukrainian national identity had formed. Therefore, it would be false to claim that Ukrainian citizens in eastern Ukraine and Crimea are as Ukrainian as those in central and western Ukraine, or that there was continuity in Crimea and Donbas from Kievan Rus to present. Many in the east weakly identify as Ukrainian, a minority identify as Russian and still others identify as “Soviet”. Nor are the Dnieper and Sivash exact demarcation lines for identity, as there is considerable spillover.

As for the armed uprisings for Cossack independence in the 17th Century and Ukrainian independence in the 20th (during World War II), both saw Cossacks and Ukrainians, respectively, spend more time slaughtering Jewish civilians followed by Polish civilians, than fighting the forces of occupation, be they Polish, Russian, Soviet or German. All violent resistance movements have their share of criminals and criminal acts, but it is disturbing to see the worst of Ukraine celebrated merely to make some Ukrainians feel good about their history. Ukrainians did not meaningfully participate in the mass anti-Soviet movements of 1989 to 1991 that liberated Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, East Germany and the Baltics. Whereas these nations were glad to see the Russians leave and to rebuild pride in their suppressed communities, Ukrainians were more circumspect until late 2013.

Last edited by Azor; 05-09-2017 at 11:58 PM.
Azor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017   #24
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
Actually, Muscovite oppression of Ukrainians has been ongoing for more than three centuries. Despite all of the killings and deportations during the Civil War and then Stalin’s tyranny, the issue of ethnic and national identity east of the Dnieper River is a thorny one.

Alternatively named the Wild Fields, Sloboda Ukraine and Left Bank Ukraine, eastern Ukraine was a sparsely-settled no-man’s land for centuries after the first Mongol invasion of Europe in the 13th Century. Despite the Mongols’ eventual defeat, this region was still subject to Mongol and Tatar depredations and was on the route that the Crimean Tatars took when raiding north toward Moscow. Crimea was only finally conquered in the late 18th Century, and both Crimea and eastern Ukraine were settled by a blend of ethnic Russians as well as ethnic Ukrainians from Right Bank Ukraine, where Ukrainian national identity had formed. Therefore, it would be false to claim that Ukrainian citizens in eastern Ukraine and Crimea are as Ukrainian as those in central and western Ukraine, or that there was continuity in Crimea and Donbas from Kievan Rus to present. Many in the east weakly identify as Ukrainian, a minority identify as Russian and still others identify as “Soviet”. Nor are the Dnieper and Sivash exact demarcation lines for identity, as there is considerable spillover.

As for the armed uprisings for Cossack independence in the 17th Century and Ukrainian independence in the 20th (during World War II), both saw Cossacks and Ukrainians, respectively, spend more time slaughtering Jewish civilians followed by Polish civilians, than fighting the forces of occupation, be they Polish, Russian, Soviet or German. All violent resistance movements have their share of criminals and criminal acts, but it is disturbing to see the worst of Ukraine celebrated merely to make some Ukrainians feel good about their history. Ukrainians did not meaningfully participate in the mass anti-Soviet movements of 1989 to 1991 that liberated Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, East Germany and the Baltics. Whereas these nations were glad to see the Russians leave and to rebuild pride in their suppressed communities, Ukrainians were more circumspect until late 2013.
WHY were they circumspect.....Russian control over Ukraine as well as overt Russian corruption was far deeper than any of the countries you refer to....and if one looks at the reforms that Ukraine is slowly moving on in fact they have made more advances in those areas than in the early years of those countries after they left UdSSR....

No single country that you referred to had a President that via corruption left office in the middle of the night with a net wealth worth the entire State budget for one year....

And if you look at the economics..right now Ukraine growth in the face of conducting defensive war operations ad rebuilding a military out of nothing and inside two years....and the fact that they could feed the world coupled with being probably the coming IT powerhouse.....they are advancing very well....

Even Poland is struggling right now.....and incomes in say Slovenia or the Czech Republic are not growing as fast...
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017   #25
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Militants launched 70 #attacks on Ukrainian troops in #Donbas in last #day.
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017   #26
Azor
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 801
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
WHY were they circumspect.....Russian control over Ukraine as well as overt Russian corruption was far deeper than any of the countries you refer to....and if one looks at the reforms that Ukraine is slowly moving on in fact they have made more advances in those areas than in the early years of those countries after they left UdSSR....

No single country that you referred to had a President that via corruption left office in the middle of the night with a net wealth worth the entire State budget for one year....

And if you look at the economics..right now Ukraine growth in the face of conducting defensive war operations ad rebuilding a military out of nothing and inside two years....and the fact that they could feed the world coupled with being probably the coming IT powerhouse.....they are advancing very well....

Even Poland is struggling right now.....and incomes in say Slovenia or the Czech Republic are not growing as fast...
I notice that you have completely avoided my comments on Ukrainian ethnicity and nationalism...

Are you out to lunch? Poland has six times Ukraine's GDP per capita PPP and almost double ita GDP growth.

Ukraine was a corrupt society under Yanukovych, Yuschenko, Yanukovych again and now Poroshenko, the latter being in the early stages of combating Ukraine's endemic corruption on both sides of the Dnieper.

Ukraine wants to join the EU to follow in Poland's footsteps, get subsidies from the wealthier countries (uncertain with the UK's departure) and have access to job opportunities and social benefits for its citizens in other countries. We'll see how long the pro-Western sentiment lasts when Brussels no longer has deep pockets...
Azor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017   #27
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
I notice that you have completely avoided my comments on Ukrainian ethnicity and nationalism...

Are you out to lunch? Poland has six times Ukraine's GDP per capita PPP and almost double ita GDP growth.

Ukraine was a corrupt society under Yanukovych, Yuschenko, Yanukovych again and now Poroshenko, the latter being in the early stages of combating Ukraine's endemic corruption on both sides of the Dnieper.

Ukraine wants to join the EU to follow in Poland's footsteps, get subsidies from the wealthier countries (uncertain with the UK's departure) and have access to job opportunities and social benefits for its citizens in other countries. We'll see how long the pro-Western sentiment lasts when Brussels no longer has deep pockets...
"Out to lunch" another strange comment from you as is normal....

Appears you have not been in Poland in the last few days...entire areas where the unemployment is over 23% forcing many of the men to become truck drivers to feed their families..if you drive say the A12 98% of all truckers and long haulers are privately owned and Polish..gas/diesel used to be really cheap on the border but now is only a few cents less that German prices....the overall cost of living has risen massively just on the last six months and if you live in around Warsaw..you are paying London apartment costs.....a lot of their problems were swept under the rug because they did not join the Euro but lately under the new government they have lost control of the currency and now their living costs are now matching Euro living costs in say Berlin...Berliners would drive on the weekends to shop for food and clothing as the Polish prices were cheap when compared to Euro prices...that consumer tourism is now completely dead....

Not so sure you have been following the Ukrainian economy as close as you should be..even and that is strange the IMF is surprised by the actual strengthening economy and the next boost will be with the coming large scale land reform which will open up the farming sector to become a massive food engine on the grain side rivalling the US.

So out to lunch...check your economic figures for the last six months and then compare it to those of say Ukraine 2013 or even say 1998...

Corruption has been the hallmark of all former Soviet countries as it is the exact way the SU and now Russia has held them captive...money and tons of it to corrupt leaders..or why do you think Maidan occurred...
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017   #28
Azor
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 801
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
"Out to lunch" another strange comment from you as is normal....

Appears you have not been in Poland in the last few days...entire areas where the unemployment is over 23% forcing many of the men to become truck drivers to feed their families..if you drive say the A12 98% of all truckers and long haulers are privately owned and Polish..gas/diesel used to be really cheap on the border but now is only a few cents less that German prices....the overall cost of living has risen massively just on the last six months and if you live in around Warsaw..you are paying London apartment costs.....a lot of their problems were swept under the rug because they did not join the Euro but lately under the new government they have lost control of the currency and now their living costs are now matching Euro living costs in say Berlin...Berliners would drive on the weekends to shop for food and clothing as the Polish prices were cheap when compared to Euro prices...that consumer tourism is now completely dead....

Not so sure you have been following the Ukrainian economy as close as you should be..even and that is strange the IMF is surprised by the actual strengthening economy and the next boost will be with the coming large scale land reform which will open up the farming sector to become a massive food engine on the grain side rivalling the US.

So out to lunch...check your economic figures for the last six months and then compare it to those of say Ukraine 2013 or even say 1998...

Corruption has been the hallmark of all former Soviet countries as it is the exact way the SU and now Russia has held them captive...money and tons of it to corrupt leaders..or why do you think Maidan occurred...
Outlaw,

Anecdotal evidence isn’t helping your cause here. For the second time, you have dodged the questions about the Cossack and OUN/UIA crimes…

Ukrainian GDP growth in 2016, in constant prices, was Poland, Hungary and Romania, as well as the Baltic republics. The only reason growth was even this high in 2016 was due to a partial recovery from the tremendous losses suffered in 2014 and 2015. Even prior to the revolution, Ukrainian GDP growth was flat for 2012 and 2013. Ukrainian GDP per capita (nominal and PPP) has regressed to the levels around 2006 and the early 1990s. 1998? Shall we measure U.S. economic growth since the Great Depression?

The U.S. is the third or fourth largest agricultural producer, with a sector 7 to 9 times larger than that of Ukraine. The latter would have to double its productivity just to rival Canada, to say nothing of Brazil and other agricultural giants. Unless one is planning on carving out an autarkic empire in Europe that can withstand a naval blockade, the Ukrainian “breadbasket” is no longer as strategic as it was say in the 1930s and 1940s.

It is almost as though you blame Russia for Ukraine’s corruption, despite that the pro-Western Orange Revolution failed due to corruption. Ukraine’s corruption actually worsened during Yuschenko’s presidency per Transparency International, and Ukraine and Russia both have similar Corruption Index Levels at present.

Are you honestly telling me that the EU transfer payments to the new EU members and the remittances to these countries by their citizens now working in wealthier EU countries were not key considerations for Ukrainians who wanted to join the EU? Are you telling me that Ukraine’s stagnant economy and the success of the former Soviet or Warsaw Pact members that were now in the EU did not influence EuroMaidan at all? Don’t sell me the hooker with the heart of gold.

And see my response over at SWJ: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...#comment-57812

It seems that you are enamored of any country confronting Russia. I assume that if Canada and Russia get into a scrap over an ice floe, that you will be declaring that Trudeau is right and Canada's participation in Afghanistan and Syria outweighs its <1% of GDP spending on defense...
Azor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017   #29
Azor
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 801
Default To Outlaw RE: Poland

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
"Out to lunch" another strange comment from you as is normal....

Appears you have not been in Poland in the last few days...entire areas where the unemployment is over 23% forcing many of the men to become truck drivers to feed their families..if you drive say the A12 98% of all truckers and long haulers are privately owned and Polish..gas/diesel used to be really cheap on the border but now is only a few cents less that German prices....the overall cost of living has risen massively just on the last six months and if you live in around Warsaw..you are paying London apartment costs.....a lot of their problems were swept under the rug because they did not join the Euro but lately under the new government they have lost control of the currency and now their living costs are now matching Euro living costs in say Berlin...Berliners would drive on the weekends to shop for food and clothing as the Polish prices were cheap when compared to Euro prices...that consumer tourism is now completely dead...
As for your reference to Poland, I can only assume that you are upset at the PiS, which has been branded "less-than-European" by the denizens of the Berlaymont. Of course, that is code for being too Polish. An influx of four million migrants from Asia and Africa, the sprouting of new mosques, a bevy of hate speech laws and various carbon penalties should do the trick, right? Having large crime-ridden "no-go zones" in every Polish city will also ensure that Poland is less attractive as a target for Russia - the porcupine approach - and therefore also contribute to collective defense...
Azor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017   #30
Azor
Council Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 801
Default Putin, Merkel Exchange Views on Ukraine in Sochi

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 62
By: Vladimir Socor

https://jamestown.org/program/putin-...ochi-part-one/

*Truncated for brevity*

Quote:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel took the initiative to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on May 2...

In the Putin-Merkel joint news conference, however, international media interest focused heavily on the situation in Ukraine’s east and Russia’s role therein. This persistent line of questioning led Putin and Merkel to declare their respective views at some length...

Putin’s main tactical goal is to pressure Kyiv into starting political settlement negotiations with the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics”—a process leading to their de facto recognition by Ukraine and Western disengagement from the problem. Toward that end, Russia persists with attrition warfare on the ground against Ukraine while seeking to align Western diplomacy with Russia’s interpretation of the political terms of the Minsk armistice.

As he stated in Sochi, Putin envisions four initial steps in that direction:
  1. initiating a “direct dialogue” between the “parties to the conflict,” namely Kyiv and the (as yet) “unrecognized republics”;
  2. through that dialogue, enshrine a “special status” for Donetsk-Luhansk in the Ukrainian constitution and legislation;
  3. work out a special electoral law applicable to those territories; and
  4. hold local elections in Donetsk-Luhansk that would produce recognized authorities there.

Putin, however, professed to be pessimistic about this scenario. He argued that Kyiv had at one time possessed sufficient domestic leeway to comply with the political terms of the Minsk armistice [as he interprets it], but the Ukrainian government missed that chance, its domestic leeway has since then narrowed, and the prospect of a political settlement is now receding.

That “direct dialogue” means a bilateral negotiation between co-equal parties, Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk, as the first step toward recognition of the latter by the former...

Putin’s four steps are to be understood cumulatively as the first stage, and thus his interim goal, in the overall settlement process. If Kyiv and its Western partners agree to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities through elections (a scenario seriously considered in Berlin and Washington in 2015–2016), then Putin’s next stage would involve negotiations on the delimitation of powers between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk, in the framework of the special status and in the Minsk armistice sequence...

With his seeming equanimity, Putin reinforces Moscow’s recent moves that may, instead of a special status, foreshadow outright secession of the Donetsk-Luhansk territory from Ukraine...

The message to Ukraine is: either concede a negotiated special status for that territory (resulting in a state within the Ukrainian state), or accept de facto the definitive separation of that territory from Ukraine. And the message to Berlin and other Western capitals implies: either pressure Kyiv to concede the special status and elections for Donetsk-Luhansk, or watch that territory’s full secession and the collapse of a diplomatic compromise between Russia and the West...

While the Kremlin’s domestic propaganda continues depicting the Ukrainian government as lacking legitimacy, Putin no longer does so in front of foreign audiences...He seemed oblivious to the implication—which Angela Merkel instantly grasped—that an illegitimate government (if such it was) could not deliver a legitimate agreement...

For, unlike Putin, the German chancellor cannot affect indifference at the possible failure of the Minsk process. Stacked though that process is against Ukraine, the German government (on a bipartisan basis) is firmly beholden to the Minsk process, connecting its fulfillment with the lifting of sanctions on Russia...Moscow expects to wait out and ride out the sanctions.

Aiming for progress on the political implementation of the Minsk armistice...was not the ambition of German Chancellor Angela Merkel when embarking on her visit to...Sochi...

Unlike Putin’s ambivalent message...Merkel reaffirmed her insistence on the fulfillment of military and political clauses, in the sequence laid down by the armistice “agreement.”

As long, however, as Russian and proxy forces continue the attrition warfare in Ukraine’s east, thus breaching the military clauses 1, 2 and 3 of the Minsk armistice, it remains impossible to advance to the follow-up political clauses. Russia wants to enforce those clauses first, which would reverse the “agreement’s” sequence...Merkel held out the lifting of sanctions at some unspecified stage in the sequenced fulfillment of military and political clauses, by Russia and Ukraine in reciprocity.

Merkel’s remarks in Sochi reveal her conception of a road map that was discussed at the “Normandy” summit...

First, the onus is on Russia to abide by the ceasefire, so as to advance to the political stage, which constitutes Russia’s priority interest. Said Merkel, “I am asking the Russian president insistently to do his best and bring about a ceasefire. This could foster an atmosphere in Ukrainian society that would make it accept painful compromises regarding the status of the Donetsk and Luhansk territories.”

Second, “We must reach the stage at which elections are held, resulting in a legitimized leadership in the Donetsk and Luhansk territories. On this basis it will then of course be possible to hold direct talks [between Kyiv and Donetsk-Luhansk]. For this we still need a lot of effort. We need a road map. This is on the table, a work in progress.” Merkel was alluding to the October 2016 proposed road map. On this second point there is a minor difference between Moscow and Berlin: while Moscow wants those direct talks to be held first...Merkel suggests holding those “elections” first...

Third, “Our firm intention remains to help Ukraine to regain access [sic] to its border. This step, however, must be preceded by a political process that would then lead to holding local elections [in Donetsk-Luhansk],” Merkel said. Inasmuch as all participants in the international negotiations unambiguously recognize Ukraine’s sovereignty in this territory, no elections could be deemed valid here without Ukraine’s advance consent that elections be held.

On the other hand, Kyiv is being asked to accept the holding of those “elections”...as a precondition to hypothetically gaining access to the border in that territory. That in turn would be conditional again on agreement with Donetsk-Luhansk...

That tangle of conditionalities is bound to end in a fiasco for Kyiv; and even if it tried, access to the border would still be at the discretion of Donetsk-Luhansk authorities as long as Russian forces are present there. Consenting to “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk would only strengthen their hand in negotiations (not only on border control but on all issues), without restoring Ukraine’s “access” to that border. Access is a coded word being used instead of “control.” As such it denotes that the aim has been downscaled from Ukrainian border control to a negotiated arrangement between Ukraine and the two “republics,” if legitimized and de facto recognized.

Merkel concluded her remarks in Sochi with a cryptic reference to the “Steinmeier Formula.” This formula lowers the bar for “elections” in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” to be deemed valid and their authorities as legitimate. Prior to Steinmeier’s intervention, the negotiations envisaged (based on the Minsk armistice) that those local “elections” be deemed valid only after a positive assessment by [the OSCE]...In that case, the “republics” would presumably earn a title to their special status, which Ukraine would then have to concede. The “Steinmeier Formula,” however, proposes that Ukraine bring into effect the special status temporarily, on the day when those “elections” are held (before the polls close)...

Hours before Merkel landed in Sochi, Putin warmly received the newly elected “president” of South Ossetia, Anatoly Bibilov there. Merkel did not raise that issue...the issue of Georgia’s occupied territories has practically disappeared from the international diplomatic agenda. Perhaps, Moscow reckons that Western tenacity in the case of Crimea and Donetsk-Luhansk would run out before Moscow’s tenacity would.
Azor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #31
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
Outlaw,

Anecdotal evidence isn’t helping your cause here. For the second time, you have dodged the questions about the Cossack and OUN/UIA crimes…

Ukrainian GDP growth in 2016, in constant prices, was Poland, Hungary and Romania, as well as the Baltic republics. The only reason growth was even this high in 2016 was due to a partial recovery from the tremendous losses suffered in 2014 and 2015. Even prior to the revolution, Ukrainian GDP growth was flat for 2012 and 2013. Ukrainian GDP per capita (nominal and PPP) has regressed to the levels around 2006 and the early 1990s. 1998? Shall we measure U.S. economic growth since the Great Depression?

The U.S. is the third or fourth largest agricultural producer, with a sector 7 to 9 times larger than that of Ukraine. The latter would have to double its productivity just to rival Canada, to say nothing of Brazil and other agricultural giants. Unless one is planning on carving out an autarkic empire in Europe that can withstand a naval blockade, the Ukrainian “breadbasket” is no longer as strategic as it was say in the 1930s and 1940s.

It is almost as though you blame Russia for Ukraine’s corruption, despite that the pro-Western Orange Revolution failed due to corruption. Ukraine’s corruption actually worsened during Yuschenko’s presidency per Transparency International, and Ukraine and Russia both have similar Corruption Index Levels at present.

Are you honestly telling me that the EU transfer payments to the new EU members and the remittances to these countries by their citizens now working in wealthier EU countries were not key considerations for Ukrainians who wanted to join the EU? Are you telling me that Ukraine’s stagnant economy and the success of the former Soviet or Warsaw Pact members that were now in the EU did not influence EuroMaidan at all? Don’t sell me the hooker with the heart of gold.

And see my response over at SWJ: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...#comment-57812

It seems that you are enamored of any country confronting Russia. I assume that if Canada and Russia get into a scrap over an ice floe, that you will be declaring that Trudeau is right and Canada's participation in Afghanistan and Syria outweighs its <1% of GDP spending on defense...
Azor...you truly do not understand Ukraine nor what drives younger Ukrainians but maybe that is because you are in the US....

NOR have you lived within the former East Bloc before the fall of the WALL....

So now do your homework...both Ukraine and Russia were actually vying for visa free travel to EU...

Russia was on track to get it until they shot themselves in the foot...with Crimea now that will never happen.

So are you trying to sell me Russia wanted EU remittances as well??

Anybody who understands the EU joining process knows that it takes roughly 10 years and a country must fulfil 21 points before even being invited to join and Ukraine knows this..they wanted the association agreement due to open and free trade and trade preferences AND they really wanted visa free travel....

WHY..for two reasons...they really do like to travel to EU without having to be restricted to two months, X amount of money in the bank, medical coverage and lining up to get the visa from any EU Embassy...and then paying the fees for it.

BUT more importantly it symbolizes a clear and concise break from Russia and the former Soviet Union....

This issue of visa free travel is an interesting thing which you tend to overlook.......

There are documents from several GDR SED Central Committee meetings in the months proceeding the fall of the Wall and the large number of GDR refugees that were in the BRD Embassy in Prague and then their exiting to West Germany...which they openly and heatedly discussed the potential of allowing GDR citizens the right to travel for 30 days every year to the West and or allowing all the time free travel.....

WHY ...and this is where you do not know anything as you never dealt with large numbers of GDR citizens arriving in Berlin ....one of the largest complaints from them was their inability to travel to places they saw of West German TV next to the dream of getting bananas....on a regular basis that were not black or brown and from Cuba and only during Xmas....

BTW...one of the hottest fruits always on sale in former GDR is in fact still bananas...

The SED Politburo seriously thought about the free travel or 30 days but in the end rejected both ideas as they were afraid no one would return and thus eventually the Wall came down and GDR citizens were free to travel anywhere they wanted to...exactly what was being discussed in the SED Politburo...

Yes many would not returned but eventually the numbers would have stabilized when they saw they could travel when they wanted to....some historians say had the SED allowed unhindered travel to the West GDR would be there today---

If you talk today with that generation that is now in their late 40s mid 50s..many say they would have returned...

That drive for free travel is a greater draw towards the EU than you think it is....

BTW right now the IT abilities of young Ukrainians taught IT in Ukraine is head and shoulders above much of what we see currently in the US...they can match US coders step for step....

Quote:
The U.S. is the third or fourth largest agricultural producer, with a sector 7 to 9 times larger than that of Ukraine. The latter would have to double its productivity just to rival Canada, to say nothing of Brazil and other agricultural giants. Unless one is planning on carving out an autarkic empire in Europe that can withstand a naval blockade, the Ukrainian “breadbasket” is no longer as strategic as it was say in the 1930s and 1940s.
You really are off on your figures....check the latest export numbers and check the massive investments coming into the farming sector from US companies...BTW check the last years corn harvest and how much of it have been destroyed as it was contaminated by black fungus....AND if NAFTA was not in place the US corn market would be a deep deep black hole and many farmers would be out of business.....

Grain is what the Ukrainians produce not corn which is largely what the US has shifted to as well as soybeans...

Quote:
It seems that you are enamored of any country confronting Russia.
You still do not get it...I am enamored with any country..political party and or individual who actively pushes back against Russian political warfare..do you not agree...and it that is the goal so be it...

BUT right now the Trump WH and Trump himself are actually enabling Russian political warfare against the US and Europe and that my friend is unacceptable...

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-13-2017 at 04:24 PM.
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #32
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Anyone who thinks #Mariupol-Berdyansk metallurgy is not an "asset" to be acquired by force by Russia - think again

Azor I posted at the very beginning over two years ago a long series of Ukrainian companies that Russia wanted to takeover when their so called "separatists" arrived in Donbass from Crimea.....I notice that many commenters have forgotten that list and it was a majority of Ukrainian companies working in the defense sector supplying Russia..
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #33
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Active fighting east of #Mariupol
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #34
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

19:39 #Avdiivka: We seem to have civil casualties. Lots of ambulances rushed. Impacts on private housing area

19:50 #Mariupol: Oh, boom, loud even in the #Center

Battle also at #Vodyane, near #Mariupol.

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-13-2017 at 06:28 PM.
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #35
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Popasna: Fighting
#Svitlodarsk_Bulge: Fighting


22:53 #Horlivka: I think there were more than 2 loads [of outgoing Grad MLRS] from 2-3 places. The uninterrupted hum was too long

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-13-2017 at 09:06 PM.
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #36
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Russia allocates $180 million to supply ore to the Donbas
http://uawire.org/news/media-russia-...to-the-donbas#
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #37
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Russian fighter jet approched US reconnaissance aircraft at distance of 6 meters over the Black Sea
http://uawire.org/news/the-russian-f...ance-aircraft#

For 2nd time this week, another Rus fighter jet 'buzzed' US Navy recon plane in Black Sea Friday

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-13-2017 at 09:23 PM.
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #38
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 11,170
Default Why are or were Ukrainians afraid of Russia?

There have been a few posts on the attitude of Ukrainians towards Russia and why for years they appeared to be silent - until the Maidan "moment".

Twenty years ago I visited western Ukraine, centred around Lviv or Lvov, which had been Polish until 1939. I have three abiding memories of talking to our hots, professional architects. One was a remark when we stopped at a war memorial, with a plaque for WW2 from 1939-1947; I was puzzled at the post-1945 extension and was told about the Ukrainian resistance to the return of Soviet rule.

Then we visited a small museum in a medium sized villa in Lvov, which had a display of civic or state funerals after independence (in 1991) and I asked what they were. One host explained the funerals were for victims of the Soviet state when Lvov became Soviet again in July 1944. Adding many victims were not reclaimed by their families who feared the Soviets / Russians would return one day exacting revenge.

A glimpse into the 1944 history comes in:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lw%C3%B3w_uprising

Finally at our final dinner a host asked our group (all "Westerners") 'Not to forget us, we are West Europeans'. I never imagined the Ukraine was part of Western Europe, but they did.

The Ukraine's modern history is bloody and rightly they fear / feared an end to their independence after 1991.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #39
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Reportedly Svitlodarsk city is under MLRS GRAD shelling

Horlivka: Outgoing MLRS Grad from city's north
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2017   #40
OUTLAW 09
Council Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 35,749
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
Azor...you truly do not understand Ukraine nor what drives younger Ukrainians but maybe that is because you are in the US....

NOR have you lived within the former East Bloc before the fall of the WALL....

So now do your homework...both Ukraine and Russia were actually vying for visa free travel to EU...

Russia was on track to get it until they shot themselves in the foot...with Crimea now that will never happen.

So are you trying to sell me Russia wanted EU remittances as well??

Anybody who understands the EU joining process knows that it takes roughly 10 years and a country must fulfil 21 points before even being invited to join and Ukraine knows this..they wanted the association agreement due to open and free trade and trade preferences AND they really wanted visa free travel....

WHY..for two reasons...they really do like to travel to EU without having to be restricted to two months, X amount of money in the bank, medical coverage and lining up to get the visa from any EU Embassy...and then paying the fees for it.

BUT more importantly it symbolizes a clear and concise break from Russia and the former Soviet Union....

This issue of visa free travel is an interesting thing which you tend to overlook.......

There are documents from several GDR SED Central Committee meetings in the months proceeding the fall of the Wall and the large number of GDR refugees that were in the BRD Embassy in Prague and then their exiting to West Germany...which they openly and heatedly discussed the potential of allowing GDR citizens the right to travel for 30 days every year to the West and or allowing all the time free travel.....

WHY ...and this is where you do not know anything as you never dealt with large numbers of GDR citizens arriving in Berlin ....one of the largest complaints from them was their inability to travel to places they saw of West German TV next to the dream of getting bananas....on a regular basis that were not black or brown and from Cuba and only during Xmas....

BTW...one of the hottest fruits always on sale in former GDR is in fact still bananas...

The SED Politburo seriously thought about the free travel or 30 days but in the end rejected both ideas as they were afraid no one would return and thus eventually the Wall came down and GDR citizens were free to travel anywhere they wanted to...exactly what was being discussed in the SED Politburo...

Yes many would not returned but eventually the numbers would have stabilized when they saw they could travel when they wanted to....some historians say had the SED allowed unhindered travel to the West GDR would be there today---

If you talk today with that generation that is now in their late 40s mid 50s..many say they would have returned...

That drive for free travel is a greater draw towards the EU than you think it is....

BTW right now the IT abilities of young Ukrainians taught IT in Ukraine is head and shoulders above much of what we see currently in the US...they can match US coders step for step....



You really are off on your figures....check the latest export numbers and check the massive investments coming into the farming sector from US companies...BTW check the last years corn harvest and how much of it have been destroyed as it was contaminated by black fungus....AND if NAFTA was not in place the US corn market would be a deep deep black hole and many farmers would be out of business.....

Grain is what the Ukrainians produce not corn which is largely what the US has shifted to as well as soybeans...



You still do not get it...I am enamored with any country..political party and or individual who actively pushes back against Russian political warfare..do you not agree...and it that is the goal so be it...

BUT right now the Trump WH and Trump himself are actually enabling Russian political warfare against the US and Europe and that my friend is unacceptable...
Map of European countries where Ukrainians won't need visas
Attached Images
File Type: jpg map.jpg (59.5 KB, 7 views)
OUTLAW 09 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
civil war, russia, ukraine, war

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The Clausewitz Collection (merged thread) SWJED Futurists & Theorists 932 05-02-2017 09:30 PM
The Taliban collection (2006 onwards) SWJED OEF - Afghanistan 223 02-22-2017 09:10 PM
Crimes, War Crimes and the War on Terror davidbfpo Law Enforcement 600 03-03-2014 04:30 PM


All times are GMT. The time now is 07:02 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9. ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Registered Users are solely responsible for their messages.
Operated by, and site design © 2005-2009, Small Wars Foundation