Egypt's Spring Revolution (2011-2013)

[Dayuhan]

The fate of that $2 billion should be in question now, IMO.

Completely agree, but don't think for a minute that the generals will hand over power just because we move our money elsewhere, even if we do. First they'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism. If that doesn't work, they'll make their money elsewhere. Not that hard to do when you're running a country.

The US pays Egypt to not fight Israel, not to move toward democracy. We may choose to renegotiate that deal, but the other party has choices too.

[ganulv]

[T]hey'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism.

Excellent job they’ve done on that score thus far.

[davidbfpo]

Londonstani who has experience of both Egypt and Pakistan comments:

..the main difference between Pakistan and Egypt right now is that Egyptians have found a public voice and a confidence to say what it is they expect from their leaders. And, this new-found expression is being tentatively exercised on a daily basis. Pakistanis, on the other hand, have little faith in the political system or their collective ability to change things for the better through the systems that presently exist. Despite talk of the lawyers marches a few years ago, in Pakistan there really is no such thing as "popular" dissent. Public protest in Pakistan only reaches significant levels when it is backed by an established political force.

In Egypt, political actors have learnt to fear "the people". In Pakistan they fear particular political parties, the military, families that run madrassa networks or media bosses.

Link:http://www.londonstani.com/blog/2012...ni-future.html

He also points to Juan Cole's commentary:http://www.juancole.com/2012/06/egyp...ent-junta.html

One passage as a taster:

What the Egyptian officer corps seems not to know is that the legitimacy and authority deriving from the ballot box will over time trump the military, no matter how positive people’s feeling are toward the officers.

[tequila]

Completely agree, but don't think for a minute that the generals will hand over power just because we move our money elsewhere, even if we do. First they'll take the line that we need them to contain Islamic extremism. If that doesn't work, they'll make their money elsewhere. Not that hard to do when you're running a country.

The US pays Egypt to not fight Israel, not to move toward democracy. We may choose to renegotiate that deal, but the other party has choices too.

Oh, I agree that the Egyptian military will not relent - I do not see any reason why we need to subsidize them while they crush the democracy movement, however. The money has many better purposes and makes the U.S. look terrible for paying it.

I see no reason why we should subsidize an Israeli-Egyptian peace any longer, either. The generals will not fight Israel because it is in their best interests to maintain the cold peace, not because we pay them.

[Dayuhan]

Oh, I agree that the Egyptian military will not relent - I do not see any reason why we need to subsidize them while they crush the democracy movement, however. The money has many better purposes and makes the U.S. look terrible for paying it.

I see no reason why we should subsidize an Israeli-Egyptian peace any longer, either. The generals will not fight Israel because it is in their best interests to maintain the cold peace, not because we pay them.

Agree on all counts, and IMO both the aid to Egypt and the annual $3 billion+ FMF to Israel should well have been moved elsewhere a long time ago (though of course the FMF to Israel is as much aid to the US defense industry as it is aid to Israel).

It will be interesting to see how the US approaches the issue. There will be those who proclaim that we have to support the generals because they are the only ones keeping the Islamists out of power. My guess is that supporting the generals is the best way to bring a really radical Islamist presence into absolute power, but we shall see...

[Fuchs]

There will be those who proclaim that we have to support the generals because they are the only ones keeping the Islamists out of power.

At times, it's thoroughly confusing that the United States are still allied with Turkey...

[davidbfpo]

Ganulv,

That was a good catch:

Excellent job they’ve done on that score thus far.

Lawrence Wright author of 'The Looming Tower' is always worth reading.

I fully accept that the Egyptian internal security methods have been brutal, so acting as a catalyst for the conversion from Islamist to Jihadist. This must be balanced by the complicated discussion and eventual negotiation between the state - via the internal security agencies - and the GIA, which led to them renouncing the Jihad.

It was quite bizarre to listen to a former GIA activist explain he'd been released on strict conditions before 'The Arab Spring', one condition being not to play an active role in politics. So when the protests began he could not be involved and had to wait till a new agreement was reached (a researcher plans a book on this intriguing aspect).

Secondly, Ayman al-Zawahiri when he left Egypt was only able to take maybe two dozen supporters from the tens of thousands of militants. The rest stayed at home, many of them in the full knowledge that Egyptian internal security would be watching one day.


As an aside now - the impact of imprisonment, whether following a trial, is an important issue that often is neglected for years and then officialdom has to catch up - an issue IIRC we have touched upon elsewhere.

[davidbfpo]

Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi moves to grant himself broad powers over the judiciary, sparking mass rallies across Egypt....Egypt’s Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi, propelled to power by the Muslim Brotherhood in June has survived 150 days as the most powerful man in Egypt and now seems to be breaking his promise to be a president for all Egyptians.....In fact, with this opportunistic move to claim vast executive powers he has pitted himself against the people of his country and is, more accurately, the Guardian of the Evolution.

Link:http://www.quilliamfoundation.org/pr...ower-in-egypt/

[davidbfpo]

A rare article looking at this relationship by Robert Springborg, a NPS professor:http://www.egyptindependent.com/opin...-officers-club

Taster:

In sum, Morsy and his colleagues in the Brotherhood are putting their newly established relationship with the military to a real test. Presumably, their assumption is that they can count on the loyalty of senior military personnel out of shared Islamist thinking, combined with solicitousness of the military’s institutional interests.

But this assumption could be incorrect. Four months may not be long enough for the new military leadership to have cohered into a like-minded group dedicated to the preservation of the Morsy government, to say nothing of establishing the networks of loyalty and control down into the army.

And while that government has demonstrated extreme sensitivity to the military’s institutional interests, its grab for power threatens the very nation and its unity that the military sees as its primary role in defending.