The Russian economy (catch all)

[Beelzebubalicious]

I don't know to what extent Ukraine competes with Russia on military arms and supplies that they produce in Ukraine. They do compete in the global arms market and as you know, it's big business.

How many MANPADS does a million $ buy?

As for the economic desperation in Russia, it is also happening in Ukraine. Ukrainians are slow to protest, unless paid and organized to do so, but there are plenty in Ukraine who would benefit from this discontent. In Russia, it seems less straightforward as the opposition doesn't seem to have much room to maneuver.

[Stan]

I don't know to what extent Ukraine competes with Russia on military arms and supplies that they produce in Ukraine. They do compete in the global arms market and as you know, it's big business.

How many MANPADS does a million $ buy?

We used to think that The Ukraine was inept at adopting an armament program (something most would develop and be prepared to fight) as early as 95. Turns out, they were more interested in business and copying Russian Sierra to sell elsewhere I recall more than 30% GNP was dedicated to defense, but for the purposes of selling, not remotely interested in defending the Mother Land !

There are literally hundreds of sites regarding this, although none go right out with a price per "article". The going price (backwards that is) is a cool M for at least three each. The offer BTW still stands I am told.

Some links to ponder (light reading if you will )
MANPADS duties
Do a little digging - you'll get there

Support Anti-Terrorism
This one leads to just about anywhere

Ukrainians are slow to protest, unless paid and organized to do so, but there are plenty in Ukraine who would benefit from this discontent. In Russia, it seems less straightforward as the opposition doesn't seem to have much room to maneuver.

It took place here, but not to the extent most feared. Glad to say that era for Estonia is dead and gone. Take no Sierra (God forbid I ever make it to Parliamentary status)

[Beelzebubalicious]

By the way, Stan, some of the things on this list might be applicable to you. I was only 2 years in Ukraine, but a lot of them applied to me....

[Surferbeetle]

From the Moscow Times: Millionaire's Crisis Plan: Return to Bartering

While the global economic crisis didn't sweep into Russia until September, Sterligov said he sensed that trouble was looming in August and got to work.

"I decided that barter trade would be the right choice for the world in times of liquidity problems and payment delays," he said in a recent interview.

So from August to November, computer programmers hired by Sterligov created an interactive database allowing the barter of debt and goods worldwide.

Sterligov illustrated a possible barter deal with a real-life example: Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works' estimated debt of 1 billion rubles ($30.4 million) to Mechel for coal supplies.

"Mechel could put information about MMK's nonpayment in our system and then add which products it needs itself," Sterligov said.

MMK, in turn, would put 1 billion rubles of steel into the system, he said. At some point, a company would surface that wanted steel and had a product needed by Mechel, and the deal would be completed.

"For this to work, you have to have thousands of bids in the system," Sterligov said, adding that debt would probably become the most popular item for barter.

Mechel and MMK declined to comment about their possible participation in such a system.

Barter trade was widespread in Russia in the 1990s, when economic turmoil following the Soviet collapse prompted companies to pay employees and creditors with the products they produced — anything from bricks to vegetable oil.

From the NY Times: Have Car, Need Briefs? In Russia, Barter Is Back

All this evokes a bit of déjà vu. In the mid-1990s, barter transactions in Russia accounted for an astonishing 50 percent of sales for midsize enterprises and 75 percent for large ones.

The practice kept businesses afloat for years but also allowed them to defer some fundamental changes needed to make them more competitive, like layoffs and price reductions. It also hurt tax revenues.

The comeback is on a small scale so far. The most recent statistics available, from November, showed that barter deals made up about 3 to 4 percent of total sales, according to the Russian Economic Barometer, an independent bulletin. Nevertheless, economists are taking note.

From BBC German Sterligov: The oligarch who gave it all up

A man who became Russia's second official millionaire following the collapse of communism has abandoned his wealth to live as a peasant in a remote part of the country.

[Beelzebubalicious]

Return to bartering? I don't know if they ever left....I posted this report before, but it's worth posting again. It's a good explanation of Russia's virtual economy, including the role of bartering.

"Abstract: The virtual economy was the system of informal rent-distribution that arose in post-Soviet Russia in the 1990s as nonviable Soviet-era manufacturing industries sought to protect themselves from the discipline of the market. Enterprise directors and their allies throughout the economy (including government officials) colluded to use nonmarket prices and various forms of nonmonetary exchange such as barter to transfer value from resource sectors to manufacturing industry. The article discusses the system’s historical roots, describes some of its characteristic phenomena, and outlines a model for behavior of enterprises."

[Beelzebubalicious]

This was in today's Eurasia Daily Monitor:

Russia Preparing to Buy Allies Through Anti-Crisis Assistance

"Moscow's anti-crisis subsidies are targeted selectively and geared for sphere-of-influence building. Russia is rewarding allied Armenia; it has precipitated Kyrgyzstan's threat to remove the U.S.-led military presence from that country; and it induced a reluctant Belarus to accept Russia's demand to turn the joint air defense system into a unified system."

The author of the article also questions whether Russia will be able to actually disburse these funds...

US/European Donors pledges billions for Georgia...and Russia responds. Do any of the players actually have the cards or are they bluffing? My answer is high-stakes bluffing.

[Stan]

US/European Donors pledges billions for Georgia...and Russia responds. Do any of the players actually have the cards or are they bluffing? My answer is high-stakes bluffing.

Hey Eric !
No bluff on the NATO/US/EU part. FY08 and 09 funds are definitely there (note that some monies from previous FYs are good for 2 to 5 years).

Have you had a chance to peruse the EUMM site? Lots of bluffing going on there as the EU get's Georgia to back off the demarcation line and asks the Russians to do the same

Now that's major bluffing

Regards, Stan

[baranov107]

We used to think that The Ukraine was inept at adopting an armament program (something most would develop and be prepared to fight) as early as 95. Turns out, they were more interested in business and copying Russian Sierra to sell elsewhere I recall more than 30% GNP was dedicated to defense, but for the purposes of selling, not remotely interested in defending the Mother Land !

There are literally hundreds of sites regarding this, although none go right out with a price per "article". The going price (backwards that is) is a cool M for at least three each. The offer BTW still stands I am told.

Some links to ponder (light reading if you will )
MANPADS duties
Do a little digging - you'll get there

Support Anti-Terrorism
This one leads to just about anywhere



It took place here, but not to the extent most feared. Glad to say that era for Estonia is dead and gone. Take no Sierra (God forbid I ever make it to Parliamentary status)

Did you help Ukraine to protect its territory? I want to live in free country without Russian empire. There is only one way - Putin must go.

[Firn]

Russia reduces gas exports to Poland

Russia's gas supplies to Poland have dropped by 45%, Poland's state gas firm PGNiG says, amid tensions over Ukraine.

The news came just hours after Poland stopped providing gas to Ukraine through "reverse-flow" pipelines.

The Russian gas volumes were 24% lower on Tuesday and 20% lower on Monday, according to PGNiG. That shortfall prompted Poland to halt reverse-flow.

Poland and Ukraine rely heavily on Russian natural gas. Russia is in a pricing dispute over gas with Ukraine.

Some analysts believe Russia, which stopped gas supplies to Ukraine in June over the pricing dispute, is punishing Poland for sending gas to Ukraine.

It looks like a test, which obvioulsy gets denied to see the initial Polish, Ukrainian and European reaction. One has to keep in mind that the SU was a reliable supplier, especially in the later stages when it needed all the hard currency it could get. The Kremlin seems to increase it's stakes in the play about Russia's future.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia reduces gas exports to Poland



It looks like a test, which obvioulsy gets denied to see the initial Polish, Ukrainian and European reaction. One has to keep in mind that the SU was a reliable supplier, especially in the later stages when it needed all the hard currency it could get. The Kremlin seems to increase it's stakes in the play about Russia's future.

Firn---thought sanctions were to be against the "others" not your own population.

Well it's back to the Russian Lada (the old Fiat 424) and baggy clothes fashioned from the 30s I guess.

Somehow the Kremlin doesn't seem to get that #sanctions is what you do to SOMEBODY ELSE.
#foodban #clothesban #caran
http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/new...ilej-i-odezhdy …

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---seems to be an unintended side effect of the Russian food bans.

Is Putin's food ban triggering bloodshed on Moscow's fruit and veg markets?
2 contract killings already:
http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2014/09/10/6209477.shtml

[Firn]

Russia restricting Austria's gas supplies

I have made a quick search if other European countries suffered also a drop in supply.

According to the energy regulator E-Control, Gazprom supplied Austria 15 percent less gas than had been previously agreed.

Similar issues have hit Poland, which has seen their supplies cut by 45 percent, and Slovakia, which has ten percent less gas than expected for the period.

I don't know how this compares to previous episodes, it might be just coincidence, but I think most will be rather sceptical. The Kremlin plays with the trust posed in it's role as supplier, which was formed during the cold war.

In any case tomorrow the new EU sanctions should be put in place. I'm curious what kind of counter-sanctions to expect from the East. After the food bans I would not rule out a lot.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---seems to be an unintended side effect of the Russian food bans.

Is Putin's food ban triggering bloodshed on Moscow's fruit and veg markets?
2 contract killings already:
http://www.gazeta.ru/social/2014/09/10/6209477.shtml

This appeared today via RIA concerning possible inflationary increases due to the banned foods and other products.

There was a short Interfax release yesterday that some of the banned items still on the shelves are being priced 21% higher than before the ban---not so sure even the CB even understands the price development on banned items--since many of their employees started after the Cold War days where banned items were being sold on the black markets across the entire country as a way of life.

From RIA today:

MOSCOW, September 12 (RIA Novosti) – The Russian Central Bank said in a statement Friday that import restrictions will have a short-term influence on price growth in Russia.

“The growth in inflation was also caused by the introduction of restrictions on foreign trade,” the bank said in a statement. “Further inflation dynamics will be determined, among other things, by how fast the economy adjusts to these restrictions. It is highly probable that the increase in the consumer price growth rate, caused by the above-mentioned factor, will be short-term.”

According to Russia’s State Statistics Service, prices gained 0.2% since September 1 and 5.8% since the start of the year.